美国中期选举民主党大胜：年轻与低收入群体大幅转向

Earlier this week, Trump and the Republican Party suffered a historic defeat at the midterms. Not only did the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives, and by quite some margin, they performed so well that they were on track to win at least 55 seats in the Senate, and 56 if Mississippi, which is still being counted at the time of recording and is very much on a knife's edge, flips. This came as a shock to basically everyone.

To put this in context, prediction markets gave the Democrats a roughly 10% chance of winning 56 seats before the election. It also implies that the pollsters got it very wrong, just in the opposite direction to usual. While lots of people were anticipating Trump and the GOP to outperform the polls as they have done in recent presidential elections, this time Democrats massively outperformed the polls. According to analysis by the New York Times, Democrats won the popular vote by about 13 points, the biggest congressional margin in over 50 years, and about four points more than the nine-point lead predicted by polling aggregators.

They won't get as much flak for it this time because they didn't underestimate Trump again, but this was a big miss for the pollsters who were more off than they were in 2020 and 2024, and about as off as they were in 2016. Again, just in the other direction. So, in this video, we're going to try to figure out exactly how this all happened by zooming in and figuring out which demographic groups swung hardest against Trump and the GOP.

Could you rank every single politician in the world? Here are thoughts and argue with us on our podcast The World Leader Leaderboard. Find it over on the TLDR podcast YouTube channel or in your favorite podcast app. So, perhaps the first thing to say is that, well, basically everyone shifted against the GOP this election. According to the SSRS exit poll, for instance, which is the poll that basically everyone uses for demographic breakdowns, literally every group apart from black women and over 65s shifted towards the Democrats compared to 2024.

But the biggest shift came among essentially three groups, which it should be said all have a fair bit of overlap. Young people, lower income people, and ethnic minorities. 72% of 18 to 29-year-olds, for instance, voted Democrats at these midterms, while only 25% voted Republican, an astonishing 47-point margin, implying a 35-point swing relative to 2024, when the same exit poll gave Kamala Harris just a 12-point margin with the same group.

To put that in context, according to the same poll, 53.5% of all voters voted Democrat, while 45.5% of voters voted Republican, an 8-point margin and implying a 9.5-point swing relative to 2024, when Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 points. There was a pretty flat gradient as well, with both a smaller margin and a smaller swing the older you got. 30 to 44-year-olds, for instance, broke 60 to 36 to the Democrats, a 24-point margin and an 18-point swing on 2024. 45 to 64-y