美国中期选举民主党大胜，市场反应与宏观影响分析

LIVE FROM SINGAPORE, THIS IS INSIGHT WITH ME HASLINDA AMEN WHERE WE DIVE DEEPER INTO THE STORIES THAT MATTER WITH CRUCIAL CONTEXT AND SHARP ANALYSIS. DEMOCRATIC SWEEP COULD PUT PRESSURE ON WALL STREET. HE JOINS US ON THE RISKS FOR BONDS AND STOCKS AND WHY HE WOULD BUY A SIGNIFICANT SELLOFF. WE DISCUSS WHETHER THE DEMOCRATS CAN CONSTRAIN DRUMS TARIFFS AND EASE THE U.S. TRADE FIGHT WITH ASIAN COUNTRIES INCLUDING CHINA AND INDIA.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT AND FRANKLIN TEMPLETON WILL HAVE MORE ON WHERE ASIAN INVESTORS SHOULD LOOK NEXT AS THE POLITICAL SHIFT IN WASHINGTON RESHAPES THE OUTLOOK FOR AI AT THE DOLLAR. WE LOOK AT WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE CONSUMER. WE WILL BE JOINED EXCLUSIVELY TO TALK ABOUT TRAVEL DEMAND AND THE COMPANY'S NEXT GROWTH MARKET. WE HAVE BREAKING NEWS OUT OF HONG KONG. ACTIVIST JOSHUA WONG HAS GOTTEN 10 YEARS IN PRISON.

THAT IS FOR THE COLLUSION CASE. THE HONG KONG COURT HAS SENTENCED HIM TO 10 YEARS FOR HIS SECOND NATIONAL SECURITY CONVICTION, EXTENDING HIS TIME BEHIND BARS. PLEADED GUILTY TO A FOREIGN COLLUSION CHARS. HE HAD ALREADY SPENT ALMOST SIX YEARS BEHIND BARS. ALSO THE COURT RULED THAT HIS OFFENSE WAS OF GRAVE CONCERN, GRAVE NATURE, REJECTING HIS ARGUMENT THAT HIS ROLE IN THE CONSPIRACY WAS LIMITED. HIS TIME HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

NOW TO OUR TOP STORY TODAY. SEISMIC POLITICAL SHIFT IN THE U.S. CONGRESS. DEMOCRATS HAVE SWEPT INTO POWER WITH OUTRAGE OVER THE COST OF LIVING IN THE WAR IN IRAN LEADING TO A CLEAR REBUKE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP. DEMOCRATS HOLD IN THE HOUSE IS ABOVE THE 218 NEEDED FOR A MAJORITY. NBC NEWS IS PROJECTING DEMOCRATS COULD FINISH WITH 258 SEATS. REPUBLICANS, 177, MARKING AND 81 SEAT MAJORITY. IN THE SENATE, DEMOCRAT DOMINANCE IS BEYOND DISPUTE.

REMARKABLY, THEY FLIPPED SENATE SEATS AND REPUBLICAN BASTIONS INCLUDING SOUTH CAROLINA, TEXAS, AND KANSAS. PRESIDENT TRUMP FAR MORE HEMMED IN THEN WHEN HE WAS IN THE FIRST TWO YEARS OF HIS SECOND TERM. REACTING TO THE OUTCOME, HE IS WARNED HE'S READY TO USE HIS VETO POWER.

I WILL GET ALONG PROBABLY WITH THE DEMOCRATS UNLESS THEY WANT TO BE DESTRUCTIVE. I HAVE THE POWER OF THE VETO. IF WE DON'T LIKE WHAT THEY ARE DOING. THEY'VE CALLED. THEY WANT TO TALK ABOUT THINGS. THAT'S FINE. HASLINDA: FOR MORE, LET'S GET TO OLIVER CROOK. IT SEEMS LIKE THERE'S AN AIR OF DEFIANCE FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. IN REALITY, ON THE GROUND, HOW WILL THE NEXT TWO YEARS LOOK FOR HIM? OLIVER: IT'S A DIFFICULT QUESTION TO ANSWER AT THIS POINT.

THERE'S A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY WILL REACT TO AN UNDENIABLE -- IF IT WAS CLOSE, THERE WOULD BE THESE LEGAL CHALLENGES FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. THIS IS AN UNDENIABLE BLUE WAVE FOR THE DEMOCRATS. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS YET TO FORMULATE EXACTLY HOW THEY WILL DEAL WITH THIS. YOU HEARD THE PRESIDENT THERE. HE WAS SPEAKING AT THE BUILDING SITE OF THE BALLROOM. I'M NOT SURE THAT'S EXACTLY THE MESSAGE THAT VOTERS WOULD LIKE TO GET FROM THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES AFTER THIS ELECTION HAS ALL OF -- HAS BEEN ABOUT THE COST OF LIVING.

THE PRESIDENT NOT IN CONTACT WITH THE EXPERIENCE OF GASOLINE PRICES, DIESEL PRICES. I THINK IT WILL COME DOWN ALSO TO HOW THE PRESIDENT WORKS WITH THIS CONGRESS. FROM THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF, WE HAVE A WIDE ARRAY OF DIFFERENT PRONOUNCEMENTS. HE SAID ON THE ONE HAND THAT HE COULD POTENTIALLY WORK WITH THE DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS. IN THE HOURS WHERE IT BECAME CLEAR THAT THE REPUBLICANS WERE GETTING A COMPLETE SHELLACKING, HE POSTED A RED ON TRUE SOCIAL WITH THE WORD VETO WRITTEN ACROSS THE TOP.

LEGISLATION. WHAT THE DEMOCRATS WOULD LIKE TO DO IS DELIVER ON THE PROMISES THEY'VE MADE ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL ON THE IDEA OF THE COST OF LIVING AND THE WAR IN IRAN. ALL THOSE THINGS. IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH THEY WILL BE ABLE TO GET DONE. HASLINDA: AND THAT IS THE QUESTION REALLY. WE'VE HEARD TIME AND AGAIN THAT REPUBLICANS LOST, THE DEMOCRATS DIDN'T WIN. HOW MIGHT THEY BE ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON THE SITUATION? OLIVER: THAT'S THE BIG QUESTION HERE.

ONCE WE GET SOME OF THE TURNOUT FIGURES LATER ON, WE WILL GET AN IDEA ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS WAS A QUESTION OF REPUBLICANS NOT SHOWING UP, HOW MUCH WAS ABOUT PEOPLE SWITCHING SIDES. ACTUALLY GAUGE HOW MUCH OF THIS WAS A POSITIVE SENTIMENT TOWARDS THE DEMOCRATS. AGAIN, THEY ARE IN A TOUGH POSITION. THEY NEED TO GET SOME OF THE THINGS THAT THEY PROMISED ALONG THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. LISTEN TO THOSE DEMOCRATS SPEAKING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

MANY OF THEM SOUNDED LIKE THEY WERE KICKING OFF THEIR PRESIDENTIAL BID FOR 2028. JON OSSOFF, THE SENATOR FROM GEORGIA. JOSH SHAPIRO, THE GOVERNOR FROM PENNSYLVANIA. THEY WERE SOUNDING VERY PRESIDENTIAL IN THEIR MESSAGING AND THE WAY THEY WERE CONVEYING THOSE MESSAGES. FOR THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, THERE WILL BE A SET OF SOUL-SEARCHING OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. THERE'S A LOT OF DIFFICULT TERRAIN TO NAVIGATE FOR PEOPLE LIKE JD VANCE WHO HAS BEEN SO CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENT, WHO WAS RESISTANT TO THE WAR IN IRAN BUT WHO HAS BEEN PUT FRONT AND CENTER AS ONE OF THE NEGOTIATIONS FOR THE WAR IN IRAN.

NEITHER PARTY HAS ANSWERED WHAT THEIR PARTY WILL LOOK LIKE GOING INTO 2028 FOR THEIR PRESIDENTIAL BID. HASLINDA: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE ASSESSMENT THERE. LET'S GET PERSPECTIVE FROM A VETERAN INVESTOR AND LEADING MARKET VOICE, EDGAR DANNY. GOOD TO HAVE YOU WITH US. 48 HOURS AGO, YOU TALKED ABOUT HOW A BLUE WAVE COULD MEAN A COLD SHOWER FOR STOCKS. STOCKS AND BONDS HAVE RISEN. WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE MARKETS RIGHT NOW?

EDGAR: RIGHT NOW, THE MARKET HAS BEEN A VERY POSITIVE SPIN ON WHAT JUST HAPPENED IN THE ELECTION. THE IMMEDIATE REACTION WAS TO SEE FUTURES DOWN. BUT THEN WHEN THE PRESIDENT SAID HE WOULD BE WILLING TO WORK WITH A DEMOCRAT, THE MARKET REBOUNDED. THERE'S A PERCEPTION THAT AS A RESULT OF THIS SWEEP, IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT SOME DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION WILL BE HAD FOR THE WAR WITH IRAN. SO OIL PRICES HAVE DROPPED QUITE SHARPLY.

IN TURN, THAT MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MODERATION IN INFLATION AND A COUPLE OF MONTHS IF THAT PERSISTS. THAT REDUCES THE PRESSURE ON THE FED TO CONTINUE TO RAISE INTEREST RATES. WE SAW THE BOND YIELDS CONTINUING TO COME DOWN. THE INITIAL REACTION OF THE MARKET OBVIOUSLY WAS A VERY POSITIVE ONE. THE CHALLENGES ARE STILL VERY MUCH AHEAD. CLEARLY, AS A RESULT OF THE ELECTIONS, WE HAVE A MORE PARTISAN DIVIDE IN WASHINGTON THAN EVER BEFORE.

AT THE END OF THE YEAR, WE WILL NEED TO HAVE SOME AGREEMENT ON THE BUDGET SO THAT WE DON'T HAVE ANOTHER GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. IF WE HAVE ANOTHER GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND IT GOES INTO JANUARY, THE PRESIDENT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH THE NEW CONGRESS WHICH COULD BE MORE PARTISAN THAN EVER. ALL IN ALL, I THINK THE INITIAL REACTION IS A POSITIVE ONE, CLEARLY. FOR? ED: WELL, I THINK WHAT THIS DOES IS IT INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF VOLATILITY IN THE OUTLOOK.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE DISAGREEMENTS OVER THE BUDGET. OVER THE DEBT CEILING. THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH REGARDS TO THE WAR. I THINK THAT THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY AND THE STOCK MARKET WILL BE MORE VOLATILITY. I DON'T THINK WE WILL HAVE A PROBLEM FOR THE ECONOMY. IT HAS PROVEN REMARKABLY RESILIENT. THE ECONOMY AND THE STOCK MARKET CONTINUED TO DO WELL DESPITE WASHINGTON WHICH IS ENCOURAGING. HASLINDA: SO RESILIENCE IN THE STOCK MARKET.

THE QUESTION IS, HOW ABOUT THE BOND MARKET? HOW SHOULD INVESTORS BE POSITIONING FOR TREASURIES RIGHT NOW? NOW THAT THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MIDTERMS IS OVER. ED: WELL, SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS. FOR ONE THING, ON THE SPENDING SIDE, THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING SIDE, IT'S VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE PRESIDENT IS GOING TO GET AN INCREASE IN THE DEFENSE BUDGET THAT HE'S ASKING FOR. WHICH WAS LIKE HALF TRILLION. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOT OF DEMOCRATS HAVE SAID THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO HAVE MEDICARE FOR ALL.

THAT'S NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN WITH A DIVIDED GOVERNMENT THE WAY WE HAVE NOW. GRIDLOCK DOES HAVE SOME BENEFITS CLEARLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE FISCAL POLICIES. IT'S BETTER IF WE DON'T GET AN EXTREME MOVE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. IF WE DO IN FACT FIND THAT THE BOND MARKET