前圣路易斯联储主席Bullard支持美联储维持利率不变

John Ellis around the table, I'm pleased to say, is the former Saint Louis Fed president, Jim Bullard. Jim, good morning. Good morning. I'm wondering what you've walked into, aren't you? Yeah. I've seen you. What's your review of what you heard yesterday? I think it was a good decision by the committee, and I think this decision was essentially made at... In the September meeting. I think the committee implicitly had a quarterly pace in mind.

I think that when we heard from New York Fed president John Williams, he laid out his own view, but a view that I think is popular on the committee, which is that, he didn't think he had to go that often. He thought, they could wait and see, wait till December, and then, for 2027, they'll have another SEP coming up in December. And at that point, they'll be able to decide what to do. I think for this meeting, for the press conference, I think chair Walsh could have just said, look, we just moved at the last meeting and there was a lot of market movement around that meeting and there was.

The two year was up, you know, 40 basis points or so. And the committee wanted to wait and see what the effect of that would be before making another decision. So we'll see you back in December and we'll see what we do then. Instead, he made reference to the widening in spreads essentially, that we saw in credit markets, a sense of some of the wobbles that people had speculated was part of the reason why they were inclined to hold rates.

What do you make of that? Do you get the sense that they want to see these risk assets continue to perform to allow the AI bet to continue? Well, I don't know. I don't think we know, but I... Having hung around the committee, I think they would probably welcome some tempering in the, in the AI boom. I think there are, you know, many red flags that have been waving here about this, you know, where's the revenue gonna come from, how fast this build out gonna occur, What about all this borrowing going on?

So I think markets... It is starting to crack a little bit, and markets are are definitely trying to calibrate where this where this movement's gonna go. But something... You know, the Fed always likes things to be smoother, more tempered, you know, more... Not not a frenzy like we have now. Do you think that it is good that the market doesn't have a sense of Kevin Walsh's reaction function? No. They they should, they should have a good sense of how the, how the committee will behave at at various junctures in the future.

I think they, you know, they still have that to some degree, but, but, obviously, with a new chair, there's there's always some learning going on. Last time you were on, you talked about two hikes and hope for the Federal Reserve. Is that still is that still what you're hoping for? I think maybe a little better wording would be two hikes and review. So they get... I think I said two hikes. Yeah. Yeah. That's my summary of what you said.

So I think I think it just felt when they're doing their dot plot for September, they just felt like, well, I don't have to put in, like, something for 2027. So I'll just why don't we just wait till we get to December? I'll see where we are, and then we'll go from there. Jimmy, it's awkward. The whole thing is right now. Clearly, he doesn't want a dot plot. So he doesn't offer a dot, but others do. Clearly, he doesn't want a news conference, but he's got one and doesn't know what to say in them.

And, obviously, he wants to win forward guidance, but no one else does, so they keep offering speeches. What do you think the end game looks like in the next twelve months? Because I can't take much more of it. Well, the dot plot is something I complain about sometimes. The dot plot, maybe it will go away, but, I think members will just, you know, you expect outreach from the members, especially the presidents. They've got their districts and they...

You know, you expect them to go and speak on the economy, and and some of them will say, here's what I think about, you know, where this is going. So I I don't think, I don't think you can put that, back in the bag. I think, the transparency revolution occurred really under Bernanke and, and and that's where it is. I think it's good. You want you want the market to understand where the committee is and what the committee is thinking because you'll get more accurate pricing in financial markets.

Does the chairman say it the same way? He he harkens back a little bit to Greenspan, which I can appreciate because I like I like Allen Greenspan, but, a little bit more market and a little bit less committee, I think, is basically what he's trying to do. Let's see if he can make it happen. Jim's good to see you. Great. Jim, much to see you. For having me. We've talked about it repeatedly. He wants to go back to that era, but he's got a different set of communication tools that he's tramped by.

Dot plot, news conference, all the speeches from all the regional Fed presidents, put the governors to. He's fine against that. It's just gonna be so awkward. Literally, news conference is gonna feel like this now. You're, like, waving the white flag. Like, I can't take it anymore. Please.