沃什在杰克逊霍尔定调美联储政策路径

Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast co host Joe Weisenthal on the ground in Jackson Hole joining us now. Joe, you're not wearing a vest. We're wearing the vest because Mike McKee did. I do like the jacket and the the polo vibe. What what what are the vibes like in Jackson Hole? What did you take away from the conversations after Warsh's speech? It's interesting. There was so much uncertainty. This is the fundamental thing. There was so much uncertainty about what, chairman Warsh was going to deliver in his speech because you could imagine it could have gone in all different kinds of directions.

He could have talked about, for example, his various task forces and what they're going to be working on. He could have talked about the sort of ostensible theme or the formal theme of the conference, which is, you know, payments innovation. Who knows? And then, of course, he could have talked in which he did about the sort of overall state of the economy and sort of how he's thinking about the Fed's work. You play that clip, and it was quite a, relative to his press conferences, I would say, a fairly meaty substantive speech.

And I think people took away from it, okay. We have some sort of clarity about how he's thinking about current conditions, what the Fed needs to do. Still some questions about, okay, how many rate hikes or rate hikes are definitely coming. But I think everyone came away with it with a little bit more clarity about how he's thinking about the road ahead. Joe, I'm kind of fascinated by this whole event having not yet gotten to experience it myself.

But we do wanna show you what I'm told is, like, a seminal moment for all of these, and this is the what we're calling the perp walk where these guys like, I've covered a lot of g twenties and g sevens. Like, it's like the class photo while the leaders stand out in some awkward outfit and take a photo. We're gonna play a little bit of, this iteration's perp walk for you and our audience. I think we've got that Jackson Hole.

It's lovely. In every way, this year is totally different. I think it's gonna be one of the most interesting meetings ever. Here's the question. Do they still look like the inflation chart? Yeah. I think they definitely Hey, guys. Hey, Mike. Hey, Mike. How are you doing? You know what? It looks like you're doing here. It looks like you're doing the Fed perp walk. Oh, nice of you to notice, Mike. I love that they call it the perp walk.

It's so funny. The Fed doesn't like that too much. Wait. So when did Okay. So that's Tom Keene. You got Mike McKee out there joining you and your cohost. Yeah. What is why do we have to walk over to this fence and point at things? Why is this important? Yeah. So I didn't realize this until we talked to McKee, which is that for years, the Fed chairman's speech is not televised. And so therefore, for journalists and so forth looking for some images, maybe to go on their website, homepages, or newspapers, they didn't have any fresh material from each meeting.

And it turned out, at least according to him, but I believe him, of course, that it was McKee himself who suggested, why don't you do a little walk outside? Let the media take some photos, and then they bring in a couple. So, like, I believe last year or two years ago, you know, sometimes it's like Christine Lagarde or the head of the Japanese Central Bank, the Bank of Japan. This year, of course, it was Warsh along with Tiff Macklethwait, the head of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, the head of the Bank of England.

And they do a little walk, and everyone gets some pictures, and then we can use those in articles for a long time. They then look over the fence at the mountains. I sort of imagine, like, anthropologists 5,000 from now will talk about this great ritual where the men who set the price of money stared off at the mountain to draw wisdom, inspiration, and guidance. But it is a very nice, simple way for the media to get some image of the central bankers and to make a you know, the central bankers showing some camaraderie as they stare at the beautiful landscape behind us, which you can't see.

It's very cloudy today, but I'm right you know, if it was a bright day right now, you'd see these extraordinary mountains right behind me right now. Well, Joe, the interesting thing We can see it. Yeah. Was, Joe, you put on, I think, x. Like, I can't believe the people who look at this and say, you know what would be great here? A data center. Like, I I look at the shots, and I'm like, this is beautiful. This is America.

It is a joke. It is a joke. I swear. I don't think anyone actually believed that. It's funny. In in truth, what's really interesting, though, just while we're talking about real estate out in Jackson Hole and this, you know, in New York City, there's no space. Right? So rents are very expensive. It's the same here. I mean, like, there's a really, if you talk to the people in town, like, people who own the restaurants or people who work at the restaurants, etcetera, there is this extraordinary vast expanse.

No one is talking about putting, you know, solar panels behind me, but there's so much land out here. But there really is, housing scarcity here because our, a lot of it is preserved. There are a lot of, extremely wealthy people with huge tracts of land. And so even it is a good reminder to come out here and say even, like, where there's more land than the eye to see, that there's a, housing scare housing scarcity and shortage across all different types of, geographies.

It's and one of the wealthiest ZIP codes in America now surpassing New York City is Yeah. Is right where you are. I mean, does that kind of go to the impact of these economic boondoggles? I think about this one. I think about Davos. I think about these places that people go every year where these important people meet and what they kinda do for the local community. Well, I think it's very interesting. Yes. It brings a lot of, business.

You know, I'll say a couple of things. So first, if if we were to go into the town of Jackson right now, I don't know if, like, they would really notice the difference. The conference is still fairly small, etcetera, and there are a lot of tourists here who come for the hiking and golf and all other sort of just gorgeous, like, summer activities. But I do think it's interesting. You know, this is the forty ninth year of this event, and you mentioned Davos as well.

You know, twenty or thirty years ago, central bankers would go. They would meet somewhere like here in those beautiful place. End of August, the most beautiful time of year, do some fly fishing, etcetera. No one was really paying attention to it, and they could sort of talk not in secret per se, but without much interest. Now we're in an age of, like, so much scrutiny, particularly around private things. Anytime where it's perceived that the sort of elites are meeting this very expensive, very nice, beautiful location, etcetera, they're making decisions.

They're talking about things. A lot of it is behind closed doors in some respect. I think that we're sort of in an era where people look a little suspicious on these things. And who knows? But I I do think that the symbolism is real in the specific sense that people do understand that, you know, very influential people, very powerful people who weren't necessarily elected, they meet in these in these gorgeous locations, and they talk about important things.

And I do wonder about the sort of, like, the big politics. Not like, oh, is it gonna go away or is it gonna be banned or anything like that, But how long whether, you know, people look at these things and they look askance at the sort of the nature of these big important meetings. It is kinda crazy. I was at Munich, I think, last year, and it was one of, like, a small room with with VVIPs. And I literally watched what I guess these meetings are for.

I watched a defense minister meeting up with a COG exec.

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