沃什杰克逊霍尔首秀:若通胀未快速回落则有工作要做
Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut; Harvard's Rogoff Says US Needs 'Shock' To Fix Debt | Bloomberg...
美联储主席沃什的首次演讲释放鹰派信号,直接影响利率预期与债券市场,宏观交易者应重点关注后续通胀数据与加息路径。
Some people treat ChachiPT like some kind of smart search engine and some use it to get work done. ChachiPT work is a new way of working in ChachiPT that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work. It's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a reviewable first version. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful.
有些人把ChachiPT当作某种智能搜索引擎,有些人则用它来完成工作。ChachiPT工作是在ChachiPT中的一种全新工作方式,它可以在你的应用和文件之间采取行动,如果需要,可以陪伴一个项目数小时,并将一个目标转化为完成的工作。它旨在帮助你从混乱的起点过渡到可审查的初版。因此,所有你必须费力处理才能转化为有用成果的源材料、简报和零散信息,都可以直接变成有用的东西。
Put ChachiPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chachept.com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth. And Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most. A resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work life balance.
将ChachiPT投入到你最雄心勃勃的想法和项目中。访问chachept.com,选择plus和pro计划中可用的工作模式即可开始。随着行业发展速度前所未有地加快,企业需要一个能够加速战略增长的环境。而密歇根兑现了这一承诺。从新兴初创企业到全球企业,密歇根提供了高管们最看重的要素:一个有韧性的创新生态系统、吸引顶尖人才的多元社区,以及支持工作与生活平衡的生活质量。
With our unified team Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity. Seize your opportunity at michigan business.org. Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else.
通过我们统一的团队密歇根方法,企业能够更快地扩展规模并在最高水平上竞争。密歇根,纯粹的机会。在michigan business.org抓住你的机会。医疗保健并不总是运作良好。如果你曾等待补充处方或无法预约就诊,你会明白这一点。这正是Optum正在改变的事情。他们利用数据和技术整合患者护理、药房以及其他一切。
So, healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person, how you need it. Optimum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optimum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. podcasts, radio, news,
因此,医疗保健变得互联而非复杂。那是什么样子?更便宜且更容易获得的处方药,以及关注整个人、按你所需方式提供的护理。Optimum正在帮助让医疗保健为每个人一体化运作。了解更多信息,请访问business.optimum.com。彭博音频工作室。播客、广播、新闻,
Bloomberg Money.
彭博金钱。
This is the Bloomberg Money podcast. I'm Tom Keane with Scarlett Fu. Join us each week for a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life on personal finance, on retirement, and wealth management. We will explore how people are earning, investing, and building wealth. We are live Fridays at noon Eastern on Bloomberg television. Subscribe to the podcast wherever you listen and as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
这是彭博金钱播客。我是汤姆·基恩,与斯嘉丽·傅一起。每周加入我们,深入了解影响你财务生活的力量,涉及个人理财、退休和财富管理。我们将探讨人们如何赚钱、投资和积累财富。我们于东部时间每周五中午在彭博电视直播。无论你在哪里收听,都可以订阅播客,并且一如既往地可在彭博终端和彭博商业应用上获取。
Good everyone. It is Friday which means this is Bloomberg Money. We cover personal finance, retirement, and wealth management. I'm Scarlett Food. Tom Keen is out in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Worsh delivered his first speech as the US central banker. So, let's head straight out to Tom out in Wyoming. Tom, I know you've been out there sitting in the cold for a while. Did Worsh silence critics and provide clarity
大家好。今天是周五,意味着这是彭博财经节目。我们关注个人理财、退休规划和财富管理。我是斯卡利特·富德。汤姆·基恩在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔,美联储主席凯文·沃什在那里发表了作为美国央行行长的首次演讲。那么,让我们直接连线在怀俄明州的汤姆。汤姆,我知道你在那里坐了一段时间,天气很冷。沃什是否平息了批评者的声音,并提供了明确的信息?
a little bit? The the clear tone here is a more restrictive Fed. We'll talk to Ender Curran about that. I have to say that in terms of Bloomberg money, this is the land of Bloomberg money, Scarlet. It's about personal finance, retirement, wealth management. I'm the youngest person in Jackson Hall. Everybody else is 80 years old and retired, so it's perfect for Bloomberg money this morning. Coming up, Scarlet Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University.
有一点吗?这里的明确基调是美联储将采取更紧缩的政策。我们将与恩德·柯伦讨论这个问题。我必须说,就彭博财经而言,这里是彭博财经的天地,斯卡利特。这关乎个人理财、退休规划和财富管理。我是杰克逊霍尔最年轻的人。其他人都80岁了,已经退休,所以今早对彭博财经来说非常合适。接下来,斯卡利特,哈佛大学的肯尼斯·罗格夫。
All right, looking forward to that conversation. And also later in the hour, Neil Richardson, chief economist at ADP, will be here with us to talk about Bloomberg Money's dual mandate, how we make money and how we save and spend money. So, first, let's get a check on where things stand in the markets and how markets have responded to that speech from Kevin Walsh. We saw the short end of the bond market react immediately.
好的,期待那场对话。另外,在本小时稍后,ADP首席经济学家尼尔·理查森将与我们在一起,讨论彭博财经的双重使命,即我们如何赚钱以及如何储蓄和花钱。那么,首先,让我们看看市场现状以及市场对凯文·沃什演讲的反应。我们看到债券市场的短端立即做出了反应。
Price down, yield up, up eight basis points right now. This is the tenor most sensitive to Fed policy. Traders pricing in higher odds of a rate hike in September. Uh we saw the 10-year yield make some big moves, but right now not doing a whole lot. The dollar moving higher with short-term rates and oil prices down about 3/4 of 1%. But here's the big mover of the morning. You could see the 2-year yield shooting up after the text of Worships speech was released at 10:00 a.m.
价格下跌,收益率上升,目前上升了8个基点。这是对美联储政策最敏感的期限。交易员正在定价9月加息的可能性更高。我们看到10年期收益率出现了大幅波动,但目前变化不大。美元随着短期利率走高,油价下跌约0.75%。但今早最大的变动是,你可以看到2年期收益率在沃什演讲文本于上午10点发布后飙升。
Eastern time. That was a 10 basis point move from trough to peak. Worsh making clear that recent CPI and PPI data were not entirely encouraging. All right, let's move on to equities here. Um stocks getting a little bit of a lift initially but have now uh settled down into mixed territory. What gets my attention is the VIX uh slightly elevated but still in the 14 and a half range below 15. All right, let's go back to Tom in Jackson Cole.
东部时间。从谷底到峰值,这是10个基点的变动。沃什明确表示,最近的CPI和PPI数据并不完全令人鼓舞。好的,让我们转向股市。嗯,股票最初略有上涨,但现在已稳定在涨跌互现的区间。引起我注意的是VIX指数,略有上升,但仍处于14.5区间,低于15。好的,让我们回到杰克逊霍尔的汤姆。
He is with one of our reporters there in Wyoming, Enda Currin. Tom,
他正在怀俄明州与我们的记者恩达·柯伦在一起。汤姆,
Scarlett, thanks so much. I needed that data check, Scarlet, cuz I spent the last 30 minutes in the Pioneer Grill just getting breakfast done the way it can only be done at Jackson uh hold. There's been a lot of feedback. You see the two-year yield move higher here, and there has been an international response. We are so fortunate at Bloomberg to have driving all of our Federal Reserve coverage and to Curran who spent the pandemic hold up in Hong Kong.
斯嘉丽,非常感谢。我需要那个数据核对,斯嘉丽,因为我过去30分钟都在先锋烧烤店,只为把早餐做到只有在杰克逊霍尔才能做到的那种程度。这里有很多反馈。你看到两年期收益率在这里走高,而且国际上也有反应。我们很幸运在彭博社,有柯伦负责我们所有的美联储报道,他在疫情期间被困在香港。
He knows international economics better than anyone here uh at Bloomberg. How did the international community, how would you guess they did or they will respond to the war speech?
他比彭博社这里的任何人都更懂国际经济。国际社会是如何反应的,你猜他们是怎么做的,或者会如何回应这场鹰派演讲?
I think the speech is being wellreceived, Tom. It's been seen as clear on some critical points. The chairman's views on inflation, which is that he's obviously concerned. He made that clear. The chairman made clear that if they don't see prices going back to the target at speed, then they have work to do. That's code for obviously raising raising interest rates. And he made clear the tool, the near-term tool they have to control inflation is short-term interest rates.
我认为这次演讲反响不错,汤姆。在一些关键点上,它被视为清晰明确。主席对通胀的看法,显然他感到担忧。他明确表示了这一点。主席明确表示,如果物价没有迅速回到目标水平,那么他们就有工作要做。这显然是在暗示加息。他还明确表示,他们控制通胀的近期工具是短期利率。
So, it was a hulkish message. Of course, it sets it up for how he now delivers on that.
所以,这是一个鹰派的信号。当然,这也为他接下来如何兑现这一承诺设定了基调。
Just as an aside, when New Zealand raises rates, do they raise rates to get out in front of a raising rates? Chairman Walsh,
顺便问一下,当新西兰加息时,他们是为了抢在加息之前加息吗?沃尔什主席,
sometimes it depends on the cycle. Sometimes central banks try to get get ahead of the Fed. You could argue this time around maybe the Fed has been accused of being behind the curve because other central banks have hiked during the past year since we've had the energy crisis, for example. But the Fed not not there yet, but certainly nudging towards that direction.
有时这取决于周期。有时央行试图抢在美联储之前行动。你可以说这次美联储可能被指责落后于曲线,因为其他央行在过去一年里已经加息,比如我们经历了能源危机。但美联储还没有到那一步,但肯定在朝那个方向推进。
You've got the cushy job here. Chris An's actually working for a living with our Federal Reserve coverage paragraph by paragraph. Which paragraph caught your attention?
你在这里的工作很轻松。克里斯·安实际上是在为我们的美联储报道逐段辛勤工作。哪一段引起了你的注意?
I think the most important one was where he said if inflation doesn't slow down quickly enough to their liking, then they have work to do. So, he's making a
我认为最重要的一段是他说如果通胀没有以他们满意的速度迅速放缓,那么他们就有工作要做。所以,他在发出一个
he actually mentioned some calculus, the second derivative.
他实际上提到了一些微积分,二阶导数。
He did. It was a long speech. It's something of a road map, but I think it's probably his most clearest explanation yet of how he's seeing the economy, how he's thinking about monetary policy, how he's thinking about inflation. But again, Tom, the point is all of that's fine. It undoes some of the uh fallout from his press conference in July. Question now is okay just what are you going to do about it? How will you deliver in in the months ahead?
他确实发表了长篇演讲。这有点像一份路线图,但我认为这可能是他迄今最清晰地阐述了他如何看待经济、如何思考货币政策以及如何思考通胀。但再说一次,汤姆,关键在于这一切都没问题。这在一定程度上修复了他在7月新闻发布会上造成的负面影响。现在的问题是,好吧,你打算怎么做?在接下来的几个月里,你将如何兑现承诺?
The way we built Bloomberg economics and our Federal Reserve coverage foundationally around Rick Mitch Martin and Craig Taus and others and now you take over the mantle as well. Do we have a clue how the presidents and governors voting and non- voting reacted to this speech? What will be the character of dcent forward? Well, I think the view certainly upstairs Tom after speech was broadly broadly speaking well received.
我们构建彭博经济学和美联储报道的基础是围绕里克·米奇·马丁和克雷格·托斯等人,现在你也接过了这一重任。我们是否知道总统和州长们,无论是投票还是非投票成员,对这次演讲的反应如何?未来的政策走向会是什么样?嗯,我认为在演讲之后,楼上的观点汤姆,总体而言是广受好评的。
That's from officials and academics and the like. The speech has gone down well because it's kind of course corrected after what happened in that July press conference in the bullmark reaction. But going forward, as I say, that's now done. Now it's all about the next set of inflation data for the month of August. And let's just say if that comes in on the on the hot side, how are policy makers going to respond? I think it's it s
这是来自官员和学者等人的看法。这次演讲之所以反响良好,是因为它在某种程度上纠正了7月新闻发布会上和牛市反应中发生的问题。但展望未来,正如我所说,那已经过去了。现在关键在于8月份下一组通胀数据。如果数据偏热,政策制定者将如何应对?我认为这很
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