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黄仁勋被指涉间谍丑闻引关注,美加贸易摩擦持续

“Bigger Than a Business Story”: Nvidia Shakeup

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We start with the biggest story of the week. Jensen Huang's stepping down as head of NVIDIA after news of an inappropriate relationship with someone alleged to be a Chinese spy. It is a huge story for investors and for a world consumed with building out AI. But it's bigger than that. Richard Haass served as the head of the Council on Foreign Relations and now is a senior counselor to Centerview Partners. The business world was rocked by news coming out of NVIDIA about the problems of Jensen Huang.

我们从本周最大的新闻开始。黄仁勋在传出与一名被指为中国间谍的人士存在不当关系后,辞去英伟达(NVIDIA)首席执行官一职。这对投资者以及一个正全力投入人工智能建设的世界来说,是一个巨大的新闻。但它的意义远不止于此。理查德·哈斯曾担任美国外交关系委员会主席,目前是Centerview Partners的高级顾问。关于黄仁勋问题的消息传出,震撼了商界。

Normally, you'd say that's a business story. But this is the most valuable company in the world on the cutting edge with AI microchips and really... really in that intersection of U.S.-China competition over AI. What are the ramifications for international diplomacy here? -Well, it is a business story, and at the same time, it's much more than a business story. The business story is going to be governance at the company.

通常你会说这是一则商业新闻。但这是全球最有价值的公司,处于人工智能微芯片的最前沿,而且确实……真正处于美中在人工智能领域的竞争交汇点。这对国际外交有什么影响?——嗯,这既是一则商业新闻,同时又不只是一则商业新闻。这则商业新闻将涉及公司治理问题。

They got some real issues to contend with. Let's park that to the side. No, this is not just any company. They are producing the largest number of the most advanced capable chips in the world. So what happens there, shall we say, affects the U.S. and global economy. Then, as you say, you've got the China connection. If all the reports are true, they seem to be that this woman was not simply a paramour, but was a spy.

他们有一些真正棘手的问题需要应对。让我们先把这个放一边。不,这不仅仅是一家普通的公司。他们正在生产世界上数量最多、能力最强的先进芯片。所以那里发生的事,姑且这么说,会影响美国和全球经济。然后,正如你所说,还有与中国有关的联系。如果所有报道都是真的,看起来确实如此,这名女子不仅仅是情人,而是一名间谍。

It's actually a central part of the Chinese growth model, the theft of intellectual property. So it would totally fit with... with that tradition. But then there's some also very interesting national security aspects. What did the president know, and when did he know it? Months ago, he had been informed through the intelligence community, through the National Security Advisor, Marco Rubio's second hat, that this woman was most likely a Chinese spy.

这实际上是中国增长模式的核心部分,即窃取知识产权。所以这完全符合……那种传统。但同时也存在一些非常有趣的国家安全方面的问题。总统知道了什么,以及他是什么时候知道的?几个月前,他就已通过情报界、通过国家安全顾问马可·卢比奥的“第二重身份”得知,这名女子很可能是一名中国间谍。

Why was this individual allowed to travel with the president, have the access? Why did the Justice Department not investigate every aspect of his life? And then it raises other issues. Is it just the China connection? Well, where else has NVIDIA been selling large amounts of chips, David? To the United Arab Emirates. Well, what about that? That is not, shall we say, a place that has a... necessarily where the technology stops there.

为什么允许这个人跟随总统出行并拥有接触权限?为什么司法部没有调查他生活的方方面面?接着又引发了其他问题。这只是与中国有关的联系吗?嗯,大卫,英伟达还在哪里大量出售芯片?向阿拉伯联合酋长国。那又怎么说呢?姑且这么说,那里并不是一个技术必然止步的地方。

And this administration and, you know, the personal figures around the president, the family, have all sorts of business ties with that part of the world. So this is a really interesting set of political issues, business issues, and national security issues. And I would say if the Justice Department, as is likely, is unwilling to look into this, then I would think this is actually a legitimate topic for the new Congress and one of its committees to get to the bottom of this.

本届政府以及围绕总统的个人、家族,都与该地区的国家有着各种各样的商业联系。因此,这是一组非常有趣的政治问题、商业问题和国家安全问题。我认为,如果司法部(很可能)不愿对此展开调查,那么这实际上应成为新一届国会及其某个委员会深入查清此事的正当议题。

Westin: There's been a lot of talk about, and use, of export controls for national security purposes to make sure that we're not exporting, particularly to China, particularly some advanced technology. What does this say about that whole apparatus if you can get around it that easily? -It's an interesting question, because I think export controls are intellectually well-disposed towards them in principle. But in practice, I'm not sure they work that well.

韦斯汀:人们经常讨论并运用出口管制来维护国家安全,以确保我们不会向特定国家(尤其是中国)出口某些先进技术。如果能如此轻易地规避这些管制,那整个出口管制体系又说明了什么?——这是个有趣的问题,因为从原则上讲,我认为人们在智力上对出口管制持积极态度。但在实践中,我不确定它们是否真的有效。

In a global economy there's so many connections where the people can talk about something or physically hand over something, and then people can copy it or what have you. So my guess is export controls aren't nearly as effective as we would like them to be. And in some cases, that might even be counterproductive, that they require and stimulate someone else to become more self-sufficient, that if denied something, then they make it an urgent priority to produce it themselves.

在全球经济中,存在许多连接点,人们可以谈论某事或实物交接某物,随后他人便可复制或利用它。因此我推测,出口管制远不如我们希望的那样有效。在某些情况下,甚至可能产生反效果,即出口管制要求并刺激其他国家变得更加自给自足;当被剥夺某种东西时,它们会将其作为优先事项自行生产。

So my guess is when the historical record of export controls is written, it won't be quite as positive as its advocates would have it to be. Westin: There was a midterm election. -Thank you, David. Westin: We've had a lot of ramifications for the Congress, where you had both houses switch. Generally think of that as domestic, the Congress. What possible effects could it have on international relations and President Trump's position?

因此我推测,当撰写出口管制的历史记录时,其评价不会像倡导者所希望的那样正面。韦斯汀:中期选举已经举行。——谢谢你,大卫。韦斯汀:国会出现了大量影响,两院均发生更替。通常我们认为这是国内事务,涉及国会。这对国际关系和特朗普总统的立场可能产生何种影响?

Well, the first point to make is a version of the point you made, that historically, the lion's share of the control over American foreign policy has been the prerogative of the executive. What, 50, 60 years ago, Arthur Schlesinger Jr. wrote a book, what? "The Imperial Presidency." And that was in the context of Vietnam. But every president since has gone to war or used military force without congressional approval. Congress has delegated enormous powers.

首先要点出的是你提到的一个观点:历史上,美国外交政策的主导权主要掌握在行政部门手中。大约50或60年前,小阿瑟·施莱辛格写了一本书,叫什么来着?《帝国总统》。那是越战背景下的著作。但在此后的每一位总统任期内,都在未经国会批准的情况下发动战争或使用军事力量。国会已授予行政部门巨大的权力。

For example, when it comes to tariffs, presidents can do what they want in diplomacy and so forth. So the short answer to your question, David, is the election won't matter that much. So if tomorrow Donald Trump wants to make a new proposal, more pro-Russian, more pro-Ukrainian, when it comes to that war, he can do it. But for 95% or more, presidential leadership on foreign policy is going to remain. Plus, this administration doesn't have ambassadors, for the most part.

例如,在关税问题上,总统可以在外交等方面随心所欲。所以,David,对你问题的简短回答是:选举结果不会那么重要。因此,如果明天唐纳德·特朗普想要提出一项新的、更亲俄或更亲乌克兰的提案,就那场战争而言,他可以做到这一点。但在95%或更多的情况下,总统在外交政策上的领导力仍将保持。此外,本届政府在很大程度上没有任命大使。

About three-quarters of our embassies are empty. The way policy is made gives informality a new meaning. So again, there's not a lot of entry points for the Congress here. Westin: You have dealt with U.S. diplomacy at the highest levels of government, both in the White House as well as the State Department. So you've seen this over years. To what extent does the political standing of the president in the United States domestically affect his position with respect to others, like Vladimir Putin, and even more important, perhaps, President Xi that he's meeting with at the ASEAN summit? -No, you're exactly right.

我们约四分之三的使馆处于空缺状态。政策制定的方式赋予了非正式性全新的含义。因此,再次强调,国会在此处的介入点并不多。韦斯汀:你曾在白宫和国务院等美国政府最高层级处理过美国外交事务。多年来你对此深有体会。美国总统在国内的政治地位在多大程度上影响他在与弗拉基米尔·普京等人的关系中的地位,以及更重要的是,在与他于东盟峰会上会面的习近平主席的关系中的地位?——不,你说得完全正确。

I think it hurts Donald Trump with the Iranians. They are pretty good readers of the American political system. A lot of their senior people went to school here. So they're watching. They saw the midterms. My guess is they've decided they can drive a harder bargain, that one of the takeaways from the election is the American people don't have much more stomach for this. Donald Trump's standing is diminished. So I think we'll see probably a tougher line, if possible, tougher.

我认为这损害了唐纳德·特朗普与伊朗人的关系。他们非常擅长解读美国政治体系。他们许多高层人士曾在这里求学。所以他们一直在观察。他们看到了中期选举的结果。我猜他们已经决定可以提出更苛刻的条件,因为从选举中得出的一个结论是,美国民众对此已不再有多少耐心。唐纳德·特朗普的支持率有所下降。所以我认为,如果可能的话,我们会看到更强硬甚至更加强硬的立场。

It's been pretty tough up to now out of Tehran. Yeah, and you've got these upcoming meetings with President Xi and with Vladimir Putin. So yeah, they've taken note of what's happened. Funnily enough, though, David, I think all 3 are somewhat weakened. Donald Trump comes out of the midterms with very little wind that is back, so to speak. Vladimir Putin's not winning, and over the last couple of months has been more losing the war against Ukraine.

到目前为止,来自德黑兰方面的态度一直相当强硬。是的,而且你即将与习近平主席和弗拉基米尔·普京举行会晤。所以是的,他们已经注意到了所发生的一切。有趣的是,David,我认为这三方都在某种程度上被削弱了。唐纳德·特朗普在中期选举后几乎没有任何回旋余地可言。弗拉基米尔·普京并未取胜,且在过去的几个月里,在对乌克兰的战争中更多是处于失利状态。

His economy is in shambles. Xi Jinping also, as you know, has enormous economic problems. So the so-called "big 3" ain't so big right now. And that's an interesting context for this meeting. Westin: Another hallmark of President Trump's foreign policy has been tariffs, including those he levied on Canada. Chrystia Freeland, former Canadian Deputy Prime Minister and author of the book "Unreliable Boyfriend," negotiated a trade deal with the first Trump administration.

他的经济一团糟。正如你所知,习近平也面临着巨大的经济问题。所以所谓的“三大巨头”目前并不那么强大。这也是此次会晤的一个有趣背景。韦斯汀:特朗普总统外交政策的另一个标志是关税,包括他对加拿大征收的关税。克里斯蒂亚·弗里兰(Chrystia Freeland),前加拿大副总理兼《不可靠的男友》一书的作者,曾与第一届特朗普政府谈判达成了一项贸易协议。

Bring us up to speed, if you can, on the nature of U.S.-Canadian relations right now. Particularly when it comes to trade. We've talked a lot about it. There were some statements coming out of the Trump White House just on the eve of the election. Things are getting better. It's hopeful with Canada. Maybe it'll work out. From your point of view, is that right? -Not yet. And, you know, what I think Americans need to remember is we have a trade deal with the United States.

如果您能告知,请让我们了解当前美加关系的状况,尤其是在贸易方面。我们已就此进行了大量讨论。在选举前夕,特朗普白宫曾发表一些声明称情况正在好转,对加拿大充满希望,或许一切会好起来。从您的角度来看,事实果真如此吗?——尚未如此。而且,我想美国人需要记住的是,我们与美国签有贸易协定。

According to that trade deal, we're not supposed to impose tariffs on each other. According to that trade deal, if we have problems with each other, we have a whole system of tribunals to work those problems out. We went through Trump 1. We negotiated a really good deal. And then out of the blue, new tariffs are imposed on us directly in contravention of that deal. And those tariffs are all still in place. I find those comments, though, that you cite

根据该贸易协定,我们不应相互征收关税。根据该协定,若双方出现问题,我们有整套仲裁机制来解决这些问题。我们经历了特朗普第一任期,并谈判达成了一项非常良好的协议。然而,毫无预兆地,对方直接对我们施加了违反该协定的新关税。这些关税目前仍然有效。不过,我发现您引用的那些评论

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