民主党横扫美国国会，美股期货反弹美元下跌

Good morning everybody. It's Wednesday, November the 4th. Here's what's on our markets agenda. The Democrats take control of both the House and the Senate, leaving stop peaches to sell off, but then partially retrace as investors assess what the result means for the eye trade elsewhere in markets, risk aversion and a pullback from Trump trades. We lost what the political result means for European corporates while reporting season continues.

Tome risk off is being reflected then in Nasdaq 100 futures on the back of this remarkable repudiation of the Trump administration. Nasdaq 100 futures called lower by 3/10 percent. Certainly question marks now about the eye trade and what kind of pushback and hurdles the Democrats could put in place around building out data centers. European futures also called low by about a 10th of a percent. We'll be watching renewables.

We've been watching those companies exposed, of course, to the data center story as well as healthcare in Europe. The dollar is down, taking a hit on the nose, down 3/10 percent with the yen. Bet you're seeing a similar move around the Swiss as well. 158 right now on USD, JPY. Currently down 3/10 of a percent. The countdown to the trade starts right now. Wednesday the fourth. Good morning. The morning after the night before Donald Trump lost big last night.

The Republican Party lost a break big last night. The Democratic Party projected to win both chambers of the U.S. Congress. It was a landslide victory in the midterm elections. A big defeat, of course, for Donald Trump. Widespread voter discontent. The state of the economy, the war in Iran. This was about affordability. David Gura has been, of course, following the results in New York. David, what do we need to know is wake up here in Europe?

Well, a remarkable repudiation was the phrase that Tom used. And I think that that's spot on here. This is an astonishing result, you know, Democrats going into this contest. I think felt very content that they were going to get control of the House of Representatives by no means get the margin that it seems like they've gotten here in the House with 227 seats. Well, over that simple majority. Look, I think the Democrats wanted to gain control of the Senate.

That was what they had dreamed of doing, but they were pretty muted about those expectations going into the vote on Tuesday of this week. You look at the way these results have come in. They came in with real emphasis from the beginning. We were able to call that race in Georgia. Jon Ossoff, the senator winning that seat shortly after polls closed. So coming in with with a bang. And then we saw Democrats picking up seats in the Senate really all across this country really repudiating, as I said, sort of what the president's agenda had been here.

And you're right in highlighting the fact that affordability was really the central message for Democrats, both running for House seats and Senate seats. It was astonishing to talk to them during the campaign. They were all reading from the same singing, from the same hymnal, reading from the same book. That was the key issue here. They knew that that was really salient with the American electorate, and that's what they were able to capitalize here on going forward.

So the open question now is what do they do with this majority? What's going to happen in this lame duck session? I should say President Trump has been sounding a conciliatory note over the course of this evening. He did a handful of telephone interviews with print organizations, broadcast organizations as well, making it seem as though he is willing to work with Democrats. I guess an open question is, how willing are Democrats going to be able to work with him?

Kind of wrapped up in all of this was a demand from many Democratic voters that the Congress takes a more aggressive tack towards the president, towards this white House, particularly on the issue of corruption. And many Democrats, guy, have not been shy here about saying that they expect to see members of the administration, executives who have worked closely with this administration finding their way to Capitol Hill to sit and testify before House committees going forward.

David, we've really enjoyed the coverage overnight. Thank you very much indeed for bringing all of that to us. We really appreciate it. David Gura in New York, thank you very much. What we have seen overnight is a sell off in tech that has bounced back. I wonder whether or not this is kind of a reflection of the result and a reflection of what happens next, or just a reflection of the fact we got quite low in terms of the technical positioning around some of these markets.

The our guys have come in, the CTAs have come in and bought the market. Can we bank on that bounce actually being sustainable. We'll hear from Mark Cudmore a little bit later on. He thinks it's a clearing event. Is that going to be the case. But so many questions now emerge around what we've got here in terms of the markets and what they're going to have to do for the next two years. Was this a push back against the affordability story?

Yes, definitely. Was this a push back against. I think if you look at Sherrod Brown in Ohio, if you look at what has happened in Texas, both in terms of the Senate seat and the governor race, I think, again, a push back. So I think there are some concerns around the tech trade going into this Wednesday morning. And and it's really interesting to think about what this might mean at the local level, because at the federal level, yes, maybe you have the presidential veto stopping, uh, the, the House from doing and stopping Congress from doing what it might want to do in terms of the eye trade, but certainly at the local level.

Really interesting to watch how these things play out. A new energy find Bloomberg New Energy Finance has been tracking that there's more than 300GW of planned U.S. states sent to roll out only 34GW. So that's around 10% of that falls in states where there was no election in 2026. So, so much of the plan to pull out is in places that were going to the polls over the last 24 hours. The top line is that a lot of people we spoke to coming into this said, this is priced in.

A blue wave is price. This isn't just a blue wave. This is a tsunami. So how much of this is is actually being priced in? You're absolutely right to zero in on what's happening in terms of the tech story. I think Elon Musk and what's happening with SpaceX and Tesla is really interesting as well, given the fact that he moved home, he moved his business to Texas. He put about $200 million into into that race. It's worth noting, disclaimer as well, that Mike Bloomberg, the parent, the owner, of course, the parent company of Bloomberg, also put money 2.5 million into supporting James Talarico through it, through a PAC in Texas.

But for Musk and SpaceX and and Tesla made major question marks about the potential merger. That and whether or not the Democrats will be bound to put a grit in the sand there. That's the tech story across the broader assets. You are seeing this move, then, that the dollar is the dollar in treasuries really stand out to some extent more than the equity story right now. Treasuries bet, interestingly, on expectations that maybe the Democrats push back or at least make it more difficult to pass through further tax cut measures and additional spending.

So Treasury is getting a bit of a lift on that and the dollar is down. Yeah, it's really interesting isn't it, the way that the fixed income markets blame this because yesterday we were talking about what does this mean. What does gridlock mean for treasuries. What does it mean for the fiscal agenda in the states. And the worry in the past couple of days seem to be that you can't bring the deficit down if you get gridlock.

But actually, the market seems to be taking the view today that you can't make the deficit any worse if you get gridlock. And so