前DNC主席:中期选举核心是经济与通胀
Former DNC Chair: 'This Election Was About The Economy, Stupid'
Looking at the results as they start now. Is this the best the Democrats could have hoped for? This is a remarkable evening. You look at the state of Texas. Uh, Greg Abbott was winning by 20 points four years ago. And, you know, you know, Hossa is now the governor elect. You look at, uh, you look at Georgia. Uh, history was made there, and then you let's let's focus on the federal side. Uh, you not only do Democrats have workable functional majorities in both chambers and, you know, in the end of the day, there will be somewhere 55, 56 seats in in the Senate.
看看现在开始的这些结果。这是民主党人能指望的最好结果吗?这是一个非凡的夜晚。你看看德克萨斯州的情况。四年前,格雷格·阿博特以20个百分点的优势领先。而你知道,霍萨现在是当选州长。再看看佐治亚州。那里创造了历史,然后让我们聚焦于联邦层面。民主党人不仅在参众两院都拥有可行且有效的多数席位,而且最终在参议院将有55或56个席位。
Um, a very functional working majority in the House. This is all about the economy. It's about making sure that people who work a full time job can feed their family. It's about addressing health care. The Republicans, Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress. They cut health care subsidies. This election was about the economy, stupid. And Democrats in governing are going to make sure they're putting people first so that you can make a living, you can afford your health care, and that we can address the rampant corruption.
在众议院,一个非常有效且能运作的多数派。这一切都与经济有关。确保全职工作的人能够养活家人。解决医疗保健问题。共和党人、唐纳德·特朗普以及国会中的共和党人削减了医疗补贴。这次选举关乎经济,笨蛋。执政的民主党人将确保他们以人为本,让你能够谋生,负担得起医疗费用,并解决猖獗的腐败问题。
That was the one of the top issues for voters. We need to hold this administration accountable and Democrats will do that. Was it a vote for Democrats or against the Republicans, the Trump administration, as you say, the economy and Iran. It's a vote for affordability. It's a vote to make sure that if I'm a farmer in Iowa, Kansas, that I can make a living. Tariffs have been a killer. Now you look at soybean exports to China.
这是选民最关心的问题之一。我们需要让本届政府承担责任,民主党人会做到这一点。这是对民主党的投票还是对共和党人、特朗普政府的反对票,就像你说的,经济和伊朗问题。这是一张关于可负担性的选票。这是一张确保如果我是一名爱荷华州或堪萨斯州的农民,能够谋生的选票。关税一直是致命伤。现在你看看对中国的黄豆出口。
They've plummeted because of tariffs. And look at soybean exports to China from Brazil. They have skyrocketed because of tariffs. And so this is about making sure that whether you're a farmer or whether you are a factory worker, you can feed your family. It's about the economy, stupid. And it is also, again, about corruption. Uh, that if you look at a Fox News poll right before the election, there were two issues that were neck and neck.
由于关税,它们已暴跌。再看看巴西对中国的黄豆出口。由于关税,它们已飙升。因此,这关乎确保无论你是农民还是工厂工人,都能养活家人。这关乎经济,笨蛋。这也再次关乎腐败。如果你看选前福克斯新闻的一项民调,有两个问题不相上下。
Affordability and corruption. And, you know, the war in Iran has been an unmitigated disaster, uh, for, uh, folks in the United States and around the world. And that's why we have high diesel costs, other high fuel costs. And it's a it's a forever war that Donald Trump, when he campaigned for president, said he wouldn't get us into. People are sending a very clear signal. And I hope other Republicans who will still be in the House and Senate will work together with Democrats so that we can raise the minimum wage.
可负担性和腐败。你知道,伊朗战争对美国人民和全世界来说都是一场毫无缓和的灾难,这就是为什么我们的柴油成本和其他燃料成本居高不下。这是一场永恒的战争,唐纳德·特朗普在竞选总统时曾说不会让我们卷入其中。人们发出了非常明确的信号。我希望其他仍将在众议院和参议院的共和党人与民主党人合作,以便我们提高最低工资。
We can make sure health care is affordable for everyone. There are things that we should be able to work together on, like tariffs and tariff reductions. So can the Democrats really deliver very much on those key issues, though? If President Trump, as he's said, that he will do become Mr. Veto in the next two years? Well, don't forget, in two years we have a presidential election, and in two years there's a number of, uh, Republican senators who are up for re-election.
我们可以确保每个人都能负担得起医疗保健。有些事情我们应该能够共同努力,比如关税和关税减免。那么,民主党人真的能在这些关键问题上取得很大进展吗?如果特朗普总统正如他所言,在未来两年内将成为“否决先生”呢?嗯,别忘了,两年后我们将迎来总统选举,而且届时将有若干共和党参议员面临连任竞选。
Uh, the Democrats are going to have probably 55 or 56 seats in the Senate, and a number of those senators will be asking the question, do I put my country first? Or do I simply continue to capitulate to a president? And they've done nothing to stop him in the war on Iran. They've done nothing to stop him from taking health care away. They've done nothing to stop him from the self-dealing. Again, corruption and affordability were the two top issues for voters.
呃,民主党人在参议院可能拥有55或56个席位,其中一些参议员将会提出这样的问题:我是把国家利益放在首位,还是仅仅继续向总统屈服?他们在对伊朗的战争中未能阻止他。他们未能阻止他剥夺人们的医疗保健。他们未能阻止他进行自我交易。再说一遍,腐败和可负担性一直是选民最关注的两大议题。
And so I'm hopeful that some of these Republicans will understand I need to put country above Trump. Okay. If then the next couple of years are spent, you know, addressing those issues as you put them, have corruption. What does that mean for businesses and for investors? What is the takeaway for them about what to expect? We've been talking all morning about the market reaction to this. I think the biggest challenge that businesses and business owners that I talked to confront is uncertainty.
因此,我寄希望于部分共和党人能明白,我需要将国家利益置于特朗普之上。好吧。如果接下来的几年都用来解决你所说的这些问题,比如腐败,那这对企业和投资者意味着什么?对他们来说,最大的启示是什么,即他们应该期待什么?我们整个上午都在讨论市场对这一情况的反应。我认为,我与之交谈过的企业和企业主面临的最大挑战是不确定性。
You have a tariff this week? No. You take it away next week. That it is really hard to run a business when you have that level of uncertainty. And I think there will be a bipartisan consensus in Congress to address those issues. I think we we haven't raised the minimum wage in the United States in over 20 years. $7.25 is not even remotely enough to feed your family. And I think we can build bipartisan consensus and find 4 or 5 Republicans who understand that we need to raise the minimum wage.
这周你有关税?没有。下周你就取消它。在这种程度的不确定性下,经营企业确实非常困难。我认为国会将在两党之间就解决这些问题达成共识。我认为,美国已经超过20年没有提高最低工资了。7.25美元甚至远远不足以养活你的家庭。我认为我们可以建立两党共识,并找到4到5位理解我们需要提高最低工资的共和党人。
We need to address these pocketbook issues. It's about the economy, stupid. James Carville famously said that in 1992, and it is true today. And that's what Democrats are going to focus on the economy and also addressing the culture of corruption that has surrounded this administration from day one. One of the things that we have seen in the run up to this election was a series of redistricting, both by Republicans and Democrats, but largely by Republicans in states that doesn't seem to have delivered the election results that they were hoping for.
我们需要解决这些关乎民众钱包的问题。经济才是关键,詹姆斯·卡维尔在1992年曾著名地说过这句话,而今天依然如此。这也是民主党人将要关注的焦点:经济,以及解决自本届政府成立以来就一直围绕其周围的腐败文化。在这场大选前夕,我们看到了一系列选区重划,由共和党和民主党共同推动,但主要由共和党在各州进行,然而结果似乎并未如他们所愿带来预期的选举成果。
Is that a lesson for the next couple of years as a district coming up in New York, for example, for both the Democrats as well, not to engage in this. Well, I'll tell you, uh, Texas is a great example. They're the ones who started it at the behest of, uh, President Obama. You look at the seat that is right along the, uh, uh, Rio Grande River. Uh, uh, Bobby Pulido, that was that used to be an hour plus 18 district solidly Republican there that Republicans turned it into an hour plus eight district.
这是否意味着在接下来的几年里,纽约等地区的民主党人也要吸取教训,避免卷入此类事件?嗯,我得说,德克萨斯州就是一个很好的例子。正是他们应奥巴马总统的要求发起了这一行动。你看沿着格兰德河的那块选区。博比·普利多(Bobby Pulido)曾代表一个原本稳固支持共和党的、面积超过18个县的选区参选,后来共和党将其重新划分为面积超过8个县的一个选区。
And Bobby Pulido won that race. He's the Democratic candidate in that district. He won that seat, I think, by, uh, 15 or 20 points. And so the Republicans sowed the seeds of their own demise in Texas. They started this redistricting war, and they were, uh, they, they self immolated because of that in, in Texas.
最终博比·普利多赢得了那场选举。他是该选区的民主党候选人。他赢得了那个席位,我想是以大约15到20个百分点的优势获胜的。因此,共和党人在德克萨斯州亲手种下了自己衰亡的种子。他们发动了这场选区划分战争,结果在德克萨斯州自取灭亡。
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力