美媒分析中期选举前选民关注经济与共和党内部裂痕
Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the early signals to watch on Election Night
E ELECTION DAY, THAT MEANS IT'S POLITICS MONDAY. AND HERE WITH US IS OUR USUAL DUO -- AMY WALTER OF THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT WITH AMY WALTER, AND TAMARA KEITH OF NPR. GREAT TO SEE YOU BOTH. ONE THE EVE OF THE MIDTERMS, PRESIDENT TRUMP IS RELITIGATING THE DAMAGE TO THE REFLECTING POOL WHICH HE BLAMED ON VANDALISM BUT EVEN HIS OWN JUSTICE DEPARTMENT RULED WAS FAULTY CONSTRUCTION.
今天是选举日，这意味着是政治星期一。与我们在一起的是我们一贯的组合——《库克政治报告》的艾米·沃尔特和艾米·沃尔特，以及来自美国国家公共广播电台（NPR）的塔玛拉·基思。很高兴见到你们两位。在中期选举的前夜，特朗普总统正在重新引发对反射池造成的损害，他将责任归咎于故意破坏行为，但就连他自己的司法部也裁定这是施工缺陷所致。
THE SPLIT SCREEN BETWEEN VOTER CONCERNS AND WHAT THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT IS NOT JUST APPARENT TODAY BUT IS APPARENT TO VOTERS FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND YOU CAN SEE THAT OPINIONS ABOUT HOW THE PRESIDENT'S HANDLING THE ECONOMY DRIVEN OF COURSE BY INFLATION AND THE COST OF GAS, BUT ALSO DRIVEN BY THIS FRUSTRATION VOTERS HAVE THAT THEY DON'T THINK THE PRESIDENT CARES ENOUGH ABOUT IT OR IS WORKING ON ALL THESE ISSUES.
选民关切与总统想要谈论的话题之间的分歧不仅今天显而易见，而且长期以来一直为选民所感知。你可以看到，人们对总统处理经济的看法受到通货膨胀和汽油成本的驱动，当然，但也受到这种挫折感的驱动：选民认为总统不够关心这些问题，或者没有在所有这些议题上努力工作。
THEY THINK WHY IS THE PRESIDENT TALKING ABOUT THIS AND NOT THE THINGS HE CAMPAIGNED ON. I ALSO THINK IT IS NOTABLE WHEN I'M LISTENING TO OTHER REPUBLICANS CLOSING OUT THEIR CAMPAIGN, THE ELECTION IS GOING TO BE ABOUT THE ECONOMY, WE KNOW THAT IS A TOP ISSUE BUT WHEN YOU LISTEN AND THE RED STATES, REPUBLICANS ARE CLOSING OUT UNDER THEIR CAMPAIGNS NOT TALKING ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO DO TO IMPROVE THE ECONOMY BUT HOW TERRIBLE THE DEMOCRATS ARE.
他们认为，为什么总统谈论这个而不是他竞选时承诺的那些事情？我还注意到，当我听其他共和党人结束他们的竞选活动时，选举将围绕经济展开，我们知道这是一个首要问题，但当你在红色州倾听时，共和党人在其竞选活动中收尾时，并没有谈论他们将如何改善经济，而是谈论民主党有多糟糕。
IT WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC TO SEE THEM IN TEXAS AND KANSAS BECAUSE THEN IT MEANS NOT REALLY TRYING TO SWAY SWING VOTERS, JUST TRYING TO TURN OUT THEIR BASE WHICH SEEMS VERY IN EAGER TO VOTE. GEOFF: WHEN THE PRESIDENT AND HIS REMARKS WAS TALKING ABOUT TOMORROW'S ELECTION, HE DIDN'T SOUND ENTIRELY OPTIMISTIC. YOU HEARD HIM USE THE SAME REFRAIN ABOUT HOW THE MIDTERMS ARE OFTEN TOUGH ON THE SITTING PRESIDENT'S PARTY, ALMOST TELEGRAPHING DEFEAT.
如果在德克萨斯州和堪萨斯州看到他们，那将是成问题的，因为这意味着并不是真正试图争取摇摆选民，而只是试图动员他们的基本盘，这似乎非常渴望投票。杰夫：当总统和他的言论谈到明天的选举时，他听起来并不完全乐观。你听到他反复使用同样的说法，即中期选举通常对现任总统所在的政党不利，几乎是在预示失败。
HE WAS TALKING IN THE PAST TENSE LIKE WE GAVE IT A GOOD TRY. AND CERTAINLY THE PRESIDENT AND HIS ALLIES DID EVERYTHING THEY COULD TO TILT THE PLAYING FIELD IN FAVOR OF REPUBLICANS. REDRAWING CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT LINES, JUST HUGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY. TRUCKLOADS OF MONEY BEING SPENT ON THE AIR. DECISIONS PRESIDENT TRUMP MADE ALONG THE WAY, CANDIDATES HE CHOSE TO SUPPORT THAT ARE CREATING MAJOR HEADACHES FOR REPUBLICANS.
他用过去时态说话，就像我们尽力了。当然，总统及其盟友尽了一切努力使天平向共和党倾斜。重新划定国会选区界线，巨额资金。大量金钱被花在广告上。特朗普总统在此过程中做出的决定，他选择支持的候选人，正在给共和党人带来重大头痛。
REPUBLICANS SHOULD NOT HAVE HAD TO SPEND $400 MILLION ON AIR IN THE STATE OF TEXAS TO HOLD ONTO A SENATE SEAT THAT THEY ARE NOT CLEAR THEY ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO. LET'S SHIFT IN MICHIGAN WHERE HALEY STEVENS WHO LOST TO ABDUL EL-SAYED IN THE SENATE RACE, THE SENATE PRIMARY, SHE ABRUPTLY ENDORSED REPUBLICAN MIKE ROGERS. IS THIS LAST-MINUTE SPECTACLE LIKELY TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACT ON THE OUTCOME OF THE RACE OR IS THIS MORE ABOUT THE PERSONALITIES?
共和党人本不该在得克萨斯州花费4亿美元用于广告投放，只为保住一个参议院席位，而他们并不确定自己能否守住这个席位。让我们把目光转向密歇根州，海莉·史蒂文斯（Haley Stevens）在参议院初选中败给了阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨伊德（Abdul El-Sayed），随后她突然宣布支持共和党人迈克·罗杰斯（Mike Rogers）。这种临阵倒戈的举动是否会对选举结果产生实质性影响？还是说这更多关乎个人恩怨？
I THINK IT IS MUCH MORE ABOUT THE PERSONALITIES THAN ANY IDEOLOGICAL PEACE. I THINK THERE IS AN IDEOLOGICAL DIVIDE THIS IS A REAL ISSUE AND CONCERN WITHIN THE DEMO PARK -- DEMOCRATIC PARTY WRIT LARGE. I THINK THE FRUSTRATION HALEY STEVENS HAS AND SHE HAS BEEN COMMUNICATING IN THE LAST ONE HE FOUR HOURS SEEMS MUCH MORE PERSONAL THAN IT IS ABOUT POLICY. THEY SORT OF REBUFFED HER, DID NOT TREAT HER WELL. PO
我认为这更多关乎个人因素，而非任何意识形态立场。我认为存在一种意识形态分歧，这是整个民主党内部的一个真实问题和担忧。我觉得海莉·史蒂文斯所表达的挫败感，以及她在最近四个小时内的沟通方式，似乎更多地带有个人色彩，而非围绕政策展开。他们某种程度上冷落了她，没有给予她应有的尊重。
更进一步：量化金融体系
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