美国9月CPI同比3.7%创五个月新高，市场押注12月加息
US Prices Rise Most Since April
CPI数据直接修正美联储利率路径预期，并引发股债商联动反应，是宏观交易的核心变量，建议密切关注后续联储表态与定价变化。
LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: PRESIDENT TRUMP HEADS WEST DATA. THE PRESIDENT STUMPS TODAY IN ARIZONA AND MONTANA THE SAME DAY THE SEPTEMBER CPI SHOWS PRICES RISING AT THE FASTEST PACE IN FIVE MONTHS. LEINZ IN WASHINGTON. AND THE MARKETS. KAILEY: THIS PROVES INFLATION IS STILL STUBBORNLY HIGHER THAN THE FED WOULD LIKE IT TO BE. MONTH ON MONTH FOR THE CORE METRIC HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.
来自华盛顿特区，乔·马蒂厄和凯莉·莱因茨报道。乔：特朗普总统前往西部进行竞选活动。总统今天在同一天在亚利桑那州和蒙大拿州进行竞选造势，而9月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据显示物价上涨速度为五个月来最快。莱因茨在华盛顿报道。以及市场情况。凯莉：这证明通胀仍然顽固地高于美联储所希望的水平。核心指标的环比涨幅高于预期。
FUELING EXPECTATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER RATE HIKE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. THE MARKET EXPECTS THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE IN DECEMBER. ONLY ABOUT A 30% CHANCE THE HIKE THIS MONTH. COMPLICATED BY THE POLITICAL REALITY THAT IT WOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. JOE: IT'S PRETTY HARD TO IGNORE WHAT IS GOING ON HERE. PRESIDENT TOLD SUPPORTERS IN COMING DOWN. WE WILL CHECK IN WITH JEFF MASON TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY IT'S NOT THE NARRATIVE THAT REPUBLICANS ARE LOOKING FOR.
这加剧了人们将在年底前看到另一次加息的预期。市场预期这次加息很可能发生在12月。本月加息的可能性仅为30%左右。由于政治现实使情况变得复杂，因为这次加息将紧邻中期选举。乔：这里发生的事情很难被忽视。总统在向支持者发表讲话时表示……我们将与杰夫·梅森联系，看看是否有任何变化，但这并不是共和党人所寻求的叙事。
KAILEY: IT WAS THE MESSAGE SHE WILL TAKE TO ALASKA. HE CONTINUES THE SWING WITH EVEN MORE STATES ON THE BOOKS AS THE WEEKS GO ON. PART OF THE CONVERSATION WITH THE ESCALATION WE ARE SEEING IN THE MIDDLE EAST BETWEEN THE WHO UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DESPITE THE PRESIDENT OF ENERGY THERE. THIS SAYS UKRAINE IS SUGGESTING IT'S A STARLINK ACCESS HAS BEEN THE ATTACKS. UNDERSTANDING WHAT HAPPENED KNOWING ELON MUSK TWEETED THAT ZELENSKYY WAS GOING TOO FAR WHEN REFINERIES.
凯莉：这是她将带到阿拉斯加的信息。随着时间推移，他继续扩大竞选范围，增加了更多州的行程。部分对话涉及我们在中东看到的局势升级，以及乌克兰基础设施的情况，尽管那里有能源部长。这表明乌克兰暗示星链（Starlink）接入曾受到攻击。了解发生了什么，要知道埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）曾推文称泽连斯基在炼油厂问题上走得太远了。
MORE ABOUT TODAY. TALKING ABOUT UKRAINE'S THE PAST TENSE. LOST A PARTNER. WE BEGIN AS ALWAYS, THE CPI DATA NEW YORK. CHARLIE: HAVE TO BEGIN WITH THE ENERGY STORY WE GOT WEST TEXAS WTI. CLOSING IN ON 96, 1 .0 670. STOCKS JOIN BONDS LOWER IS THE SINCE APRIL. THE FED WILL KEEP LIFTING BOUNCE OFF THE BOTTOM. DOW INDUSTRIALS DOWN 1.52. NASDAQ NOW DOWN 1.5%. THE SEMI CONDUCTOR STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX IS NOW 3.3%. 5.23%. GOLD DOWN, WILL WTI OF 1.9 PERCENT, 95 .90 PER BARREL.
更多关于今天的情况。谈论乌克兰的过去式。失去了一位伙伴。我们像往常一样从纽约的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据开始。查理：我们必须先从能源故事开始，我们得到了西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）。收盘价接近96美元，涨幅1.0%，报670点。股票和债券双双下跌，自4月以来首次如此。美联储将继续推高反弹势头。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.52%。纳斯达克综合指数现在下跌1.5%。半导体股票交易所指数现在下跌3.3%至5.23%。黄金下跌，WTI下跌1.9%，报每桶95.90美元。
GLOBAL FOUNDRIES PLANS TO BUILD TWO NEW CHIP PLANTS WITH THE GOVERNMENT. UNDER A BROADER ARRANGEMENT, THE U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT WILL TAKE A ROUGHLY 4% EQUITY STAKE IN THE COMPANY. DIGITAL REALTY TRUST IS OFFERING $1000 PER YEAR TO EVERY KANSAS, WHERE IT'S PLANNED DATA CENTER IS GOING. THE CITIES TRY TO FIGURE OUT THE DETAILS AND HOW THIS PROPOSAL THE QUESTION YOU ARE ALL WONDERING ABOUT, THE CITY HAS A POPULATION CURRENTLY HAVE ABOUT SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE. $1000 FOR THE NEXT DECADE FOR EVERY SINGLE HOUSEHOLD IN DE SOTO, KANSAS.
格芯（GlobalFoundries）计划建造两座新芯片工厂，并获得政府支持。根据更广泛的协议，美国商务部将在该公司持有约4%的股权。数字地产信托（Digital Realty Trust）每年向堪萨斯州的每个家庭提供1000美元，其计划中的数据中心将建在那里。各城市试图弄清楚细节以及这项提议的内容。这是你们所有人都在问的问题：该城市目前人口约为七千人。对于堪萨斯州德索托市（De Soto, Kansas）的每一个家庭，未来十年每年提供1000美元。
THIS IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. KAILEY: REMINDS ME OF WHAT WE HEARD FROM TED CRUZ IN TEXAS SAYING DATA CENTERS AND COMMUNITIES, YOU PAY FOR PEOPLE'S UTILITY COSTS. WE KNOW THERE'S A LOT OF MONEY GOING AROUND. STRATEGY GIVEN THE POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES. AND CENTER THIS MIDTERM CYCLE. NOT JUST UTILITY COSTS. IT HAS BEEN A CONTINUES TO BE THE CHALLENGE VOTERS SAY IS TOP OF MIND. JUST 20 DAYS FROM NOW. WITH THE INFLATION DATA, IT SHOWS CONSUMER PRICES GOING UP. 3.7% OVERALL ON THE HEADLINE FIGURE.
这是一条彭博商业快讯。凯利：这让我想起我们在德克萨斯州听到的泰德·克鲁兹的言论，他说数据中心和社区，你们要为人们的公用事业成本买单。我们知道有很多钱在流通。鉴于政治困难而制定的战略。以及在这个中期选举周期中处于中心位置。不仅仅是公用事业成本。这一直是一个持续的挑战，选民说这是他们最关心的问题。距离现在只有20天了。随着通胀数据公布，显示消费者物价上涨。整体头条数字为3.7%。
FOLLOWING. IT BENEFITS THE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT SENATOR. LISTEN. PRESIDENT TRUMP: EVERYTHING YOU ARE CHEERING ABOUT TONIGHT, THE JOBS WILL BE UNBELIEVABLE. WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO WINNING. I RAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR LET ME PUT IT THAT WAY. THAT WILL END VERY SOON. THAT WAR WILL END VERY SOON. THEY ALREADY ARE. JOE: AS WE TURN TO JEFF MASON, CORRESPONDENT. IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU. THAT DID NOT TURN OUT TO BE THE INDEX. MESSAGE BEFORE RALLIES TODAY?
接下来。这对共和党现任参议员有利。听。特朗普总统：你们今晚欢呼的一切，就业情况将难以置信。我们非常接近胜利。我跑……不会核……让我这么说吧。那场战争很快就要结束了。那场战争很快就要结束。他们已经开始了。乔：当我们转向杰夫·梅森，记者。很高兴见到你。那并没有成为指数。今天集会前的信息是什么？
JEFF: I THINK THAT'S DOUBTFUL. THE DATA AS YOU SAY SHOWS WHAT HE IS SAYING FROM THE PODIUM AT THESE RALLIES IS NOT BACKED UP IS IN THE ECONOMY. KEVIN HASSETT IS A TOP ECONOMIC ADVISOR. ANOTHER NETWORK THIS MORNING. THE PRESIDENT HAS ACKNOWLEDGED THERE WILL BE TEMPORARY SETBACKS AS A RESULT OF THE IRAN WAR. THE PRESIDENT HAS EMPLOYED OR AGENDA. THAT IS THE MESSAGING THEY WOULD LIKE TO FOCUS ON. IN THEIR POCKETBOOKS. SET HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST FEW WEEKS.
杰夫：我认为这值得怀疑。正如你所说，数据显示他在这些集会的讲台上所说的话没有得到经济的支持。凯文·哈塞特是一位高级经济顾问。今天早上另一个网络。总统已承认，由于伊朗战争的结果，将出现暂时的挫折。总统已经采用了议程。那是他们希望关注的信息。在他们的钱包里。SET（注：可能指特定指标或人名，此处保留）一直是过去几周最大的少数派。
KAILEY: WHAT SHOULD WE MAKE OF THE DECISION TO TAKE THAT TODAY? JEFF: MONTANA IS A RED STATE. WELL. THE FACT THAT HE DECIDED HE NEEDED TO GO THERE YESTERDAY AND NOW GO TO MONTANA AS WELL IS A REFLECTION OF HOW CONCERNED THE WHITE HOUSE IS AN REPUBLICANS ARE ABOUT LOSING WHAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN SAFE SEATS AND AND SAFE STATES. PRESIDENT TRUMP WON PRETTY ELECTION. THAT IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING HERE. HE'S GOING TO THE STATES TRY AND HELP HOLD ON TO MAJORITIES IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE.
凯利：我们应该如何解读今天做出这一决定的意义？杰夫：蒙大拿州是红色州（共和党优势州）。嗯。他决定昨天去那里，现在也要去蒙大拿州的事实，反映了白宫和共和党人对于失去以前安全的席位和州有多么担忧。特朗普总统赢得了相当不错的选举。这就是我们在这里看到的。他将前往各州，试图帮助维持众议院和参议院的多数席位。
I SPOKE TO ANOTHER WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL WHO SAID THEY SEE A AND SENATE. SOME CONFIDENCE. THAT IS MALIGNED BY THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE TO CREATE A TRAVEL SCHEDULE THAT GOES TO THE BROADER POLITICAL MAP SHOULD NOT BE IN PLAY. JOE: WE WERE WATCHING THE PRESIDENT LAST EVENING IN ALASKA AND I WAS STRUCK BY HIS CLOSING LINE. IN CONCLUSION, IF YOU WERE ELECT A REPUBLICAN HOUSE AND REPUBLICAN SENATE ON NOVEMBER 3, CLOSING ARGUMENT?
我与另一位白宫官员交谈，他们说他们看到众议院和参议院的一些信心。这种信心被一个事实所损害，即他们必须制定一个旅行日程，该日程应涵盖更广泛的政治地图，而不应该处于争议之中。乔：昨晚我们在阿拉斯加观看总统时，我被他的结束语所触动。总之，如果你在11月3日当选了共和党控制的众议院和参议院，最后的论点是什么？
JEFF: IT WAS THE KEY ARGUMENT AGO. BRINGING THAT LINE BACK IN THE HOPES THAT MAYBE THE PROMISE OF A CHECK WILL ENCOURAGE PEOPLE FROM HIS BASE AND OTHERWISE REPUBLICANS TO COME OUT. THE QUESTION IS DOES IT WORK. WILL PEOPLE BELIEVE IT? WILL REPUBLICANS EVEN FUND IT IF MAJORITIES? POPULAR EVEN WITH SOMEONE IN HIS BASE LET ALONE DEMOCRATS WHO SUPPORT HE WOULD NEED. THE HOUSE. THANK YOU SO MUCH. POLITICS. GOVERNMENT. INDEPENDENT POLITICS.
杰夫：这是之前的核心论点。重新引入这一说法，是希望支票的承诺或许能鼓励他的基本盘选民以及其他共和党人出来投票。问题在于这是否有效？人们会相信吗？如果多数党是民主党，共和党人还会资助它吗？即便在他自己的基本盘中都未必受欢迎，更不用说需要民主党支持的众议院了。非常感谢大家。政治。政府。独立政治。
THE PROGRAM. WE TALK TO YOU A LOT IN 2024 AS STATES. HOW CRITICAL IS ARIZONA IN THIS A CONTESTED GOVERNOR'S RACE?
节目。我们在2024年经常与您交谈，作为州级视角。亚利桑那州在这场有争议的州长竞选中有多关键？
STILL AN INCREDIBLY CREDIT -- CRITICAL STATE BECAUSE OF CONGRESSIONAL RACES THAT WILL POWER IN WASHINGTON. IT WILL HELP FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH THE COUNTRY. JOE: GREAT TO SEE YOU AND HAVE YOU BACK WITH US HERE. THE MESSAGE OF AFFORDABILITY IS PRETTY CHALLENGED AT THE MOMENT BY THE PRESIDENT AND SOME REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES. EVERYBODY TAKING A DIFFERENT ANGLE ON THE MESSAGING AROUND THIS. EVENING THAT PRICES WERE ALREADY COMING DOWN IN LIGHT OF THE DATA TODAY SHOWING THE OPPOSITE.
仍然是一个极其重要——关键的州，因为国会选举将影响华盛顿的权力格局。这将有助于判断这个国家的情况如何。乔：很高兴见到你，欢迎你再次回到我们这里。关于可负担性的信息目前正受到总统和一些共和党候选人的挑战。每个人都在围绕这一信息的角度上采取不同的立场。今晚，尽管今天的数据显示价格正在下降，但事实恰恰相反。
ARIZONA TODAY? SAMARA: THAT IS THE MESSAGE THAT WON HIM THE ELECTION IN 2024. ARE HAVING SO MUCH TROUBLE AT THIS POINT, ARIZONANS AND IMPROVEMENTS. COST OF LIVING IS HIGH, INFLATION IS HIGH, THAT IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. KAILEY: AS WE TALK ABOUT REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS A LOT OF THESE CAMPS WERE ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED AND THEY MAY THEY WOULD SUPPORT THEIR PARTIES IN THIS MIDTERM OR SHOW UP TO THE POLLS TO VOTE FOR THEM.
今天的亚利桑那州呢？萨马拉：这就是他在2024年赢得选举的信息。目前亚利桑那州人在生活成本改善方面遇到了很大困难。生活成本高，通胀高，这是全国范围内最大的问题。凯莉：当我们谈论共和党和民主党时，这些阵营中的许多已经非常稳固，他们可能会在中期选举中支持他们的政党，或者去投票站为他们投票。
WHAT ABOUT INDEPENDENTS? HOW ARE THEY RANKING IN THIS ACROSS THE COUNTRY? SAMARA: OVER THE LAST DECADE OR MORE WE HAVE SEEN A GROWING PERCENTAGE OF AMERICANS WHO CALL THEMSELVES INDEPENDENTS. THEY DON'T WANT TO PUBLICLY PARTY. LIKE EITHER PARTY. ARIZONA ARE REGISTERED AS OTHER. THAN DEMOCRATIC VOTERS. IF YOU LOOK AT WHO IS IN CONTROL, YOU HAVE A DEMOCRATIC GENERAL. THE DEMOCRATS AND MOST OF THE THEIR CAMPAIGNS. THIS SUGGESTED INDEPENDENCE ARE PLAYING A REALLY IMPORTANT ROLE IN ARIZONA.
那么独立人士呢？他们在全国范围内的排名如何？萨马拉：在过去十年或更长时间里，我们看到自称独立人士的美国人比例不断增长。他们不想公开属于任何一个政党。在亚利桑那州，注册为“其他”的选民多于民主党选民。如果你看谁掌握控制权，你有一位民主党总检察长。民主党人和他们的大多数竞选活动。这表明独立性在亚利桑那州发挥着非常重要的作用。
THE INDEPENDENCE ARE REALLY DEMOCRATIC SIDE. JOE: HOW ARE ARIZONANS JUDGING REPUBLICAN PARTY ISSUES SURROUNDING IMMIGRATION? THERE ARE TWO WAYS TO LOOK AT SECURITY. MARKS. THERE ARE MUCH MORE CHALLENGED WHEN IT COMES TO IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT CONSIDERING SOME OF THE VIOLENCE WE HAVE SEEN WITH I.C.E. RAIDS AROUND THE COUNTRY. ARIZONA IS PRETTY CLOSE TO FEELING? SAMARA: 2024, IMMIGRATION WAS A GROUPS. IN ARIZONA, BORDER SECURITY WAS A HUGE ISSUE.
独立性实际上是在民主党的那边。乔：亚利桑那州人如何评判围绕移民的共和党议题？看待安全有两种方式。马克斯。在考虑全国各地ICE（移民和海关执法局）突袭所引发的暴力事件时，他们在移民执法方面面临更多挑战。亚利桑那州的感受相当接近吗？萨马拉：2024年，移民是一个群体议题。在亚利桑那州，边境安全是一个重大问题。
THEY WERE FED UP WITH THE USHERED IN A REPUBLICAN VICTORY TWO YEARS AGO. ANY OTHER CYCLE OR POLITICAL VICTORY LAPS RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER THEY HAVE TWO OTHER ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. ALL OF THE PUBLIC THIS CONTENT MUCH AS EXCESSIVE FORCE. THEY ARE NOT HAPPY WITH THE EXTREMITY WITH THE SUPPORT FOR ENFORCEMENT. IT IS SUCH AN ISSUE FOR VOTERS THAT IN MANY WAYS IT IS OVERSHADOWING THE SUCCESS THE REPUBLICANS MIGHT HAVE BEEN COMES TO BORDER SECURITY.
他们对两年前共和党获胜所 ushered in 的局面感到受够了。任何其他的周期或政治胜利现在都 laps right now。然而，他们还有两个其他问题要处理。所有的公众都对这种内容 much as excessive force 感到不满。他们对执法的支持的 extremity 并不满意。这是一个如此重要的选民问题，在许多方面它 overshadowing the success the republicans might have been comes to border security.
KAILEY: ON ENFORCEMENT SPECIFICALLY, IS THAT ESPECIALLY TRUE OF LATINO VOTERS WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE IMPACTS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN TEXAS AND FLORIDA WHERE THEY REDREW MAPS? IT SEEMS LIKE THAT IS LESS ABOUT IN ARIZONA? SAMARA: THEY REALLY DID MOVE TOWARDS THE REPUBLICANS IN 2024. HOW DURABLE THAT WAS. THE SIGN OF THE BROADER TREND, SUPPORT FOR TRUMP HAS COME DOWN AS IT HAD FOR MOST OTHER SUBGROUPS OF THE
凯莉：具体到执法问题上，这在拉丁裔选民中是否尤其真实？当我们谈论可能在德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州产生的影响时，他们重新绘制了选区地图？在亚利桑那州似乎情况不同？萨马拉：他们在2024年确实转向了共和党。这种转变的持久性如何？这是更广泛趋势的标志，对特朗普的支持已经下降，就像大多数其他子群体一样。
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力