美国9月CPI超预期，市场押注12月加息

LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: PRESIDENT TRUMP HEADS WEST DATA. THE PRESIDENT STUMPS TODAY IN ARIZONA AND MONTANA THE SAME DAY THE SEPTEMBER CPI SHOWS PRICES RISING AT THE FASTEST PACE IN FIVE MONTHS. LEINZ IN WASHINGTON. AND THE MARKETS. KAILEY: THIS PROVES INFLATION IS STILL STUBBORNLY HIGHER THAN THE FED WOULD LIKE IT TO BE. MONTH ON MONTH FOR THE CORE METRIC HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.

FUELING EXPECTATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER RATE HIKE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. THE MARKET EXPECTS THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE IN DECEMBER. ONLY ABOUT A 30% CHANCE THE HIKE THIS MONTH. COMPLICATED BY THE POLITICAL REALITY THAT IT WOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. JOE: IT'S PRETTY HARD TO IGNORE WHAT IS GOING ON HERE. PRESIDENT TOLD SUPPORTERS IN COMING DOWN. WE WILL CHECK IN WITH JEFF MASON TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY IT'S NOT THE NARRATIVE THAT REPUBLICANS ARE LOOKING FOR.

KAILEY: IT WAS THE MESSAGE SHE WILL TAKE TO ALASKA. HE CONTINUES THE SWING WITH EVEN MORE STATES ON THE BOOKS AS THE WEEKS GO ON. PART OF THE CONVERSATION WITH THE ESCALATION WE ARE SEEING IN THE MIDDLE EAST BETWEEN THE WHO UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DESPITE THE PRESIDENT OF ENERGY THERE. THIS SAYS UKRAINE IS SUGGESTING IT'S A STARLINK ACCESS HAS BEEN THE ATTACKS. UNDERSTANDING WHAT HAPPENED KNOWING ELON MUSK TWEETED THAT ZELENSKYY WAS GOING TOO FAR WHEN REFINERIES.

MORE ABOUT TODAY. TALKING ABOUT UKRAINE'S THE PAST TENSE. LOST A PARTNER. WE BEGIN AS ALWAYS, THE CPI DATA NEW YORK. CHARLIE: HAVE TO BEGIN WITH THE ENERGY STORY WE GOT WEST TEXAS WTI. CLOSING IN ON 96, 1 .0 670. STOCKS JOIN BONDS LOWER IS THE SINCE APRIL. THE FED WILL KEEP LIFTING BOUNCE OFF THE BOTTOM. DOW INDUSTRIALS DOWN 1.52. NASDAQ NOW DOWN 1.5%. THE SEMI CONDUCTOR STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX IS NOW 3.3%. 5.23%. GOLD DOWN, WILL WTI OF 1.9 PERCENT, 95 .90 PER BARREL.

GLOBAL FOUNDRIES PLANS TO BUILD TWO NEW CHIP PLANTS WITH THE GOVERNMENT. UNDER A BROADER ARRANGEMENT, THE U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT WILL TAKE A ROUGHLY 4% EQUITY STAKE IN THE COMPANY. DIGITAL REALTY TRUST IS OFFERING $1000 PER YEAR TO EVERY KANSAS, WHERE IT'S PLANNED DATA CENTER IS GOING. THE CITIES TRY TO FIGURE OUT THE DETAILS AND HOW THIS PROPOSAL THE QUESTION YOU ARE ALL WONDERING ABOUT, THE CITY HAS A POPULATION CURRENTLY HAVE ABOUT SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE. $1000 FOR THE NEXT DECADE FOR EVERY SINGLE HOUSEHOLD IN DE SOTO, KANSAS.

THIS IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. KAILEY: REMINDS ME OF WHAT WE HEARD FROM TED CRUZ IN TEXAS SAYING DATA CENTERS AND COMMUNITIES, YOU PAY FOR PEOPLE'S UTILITY COSTS. WE KNOW THERE'S A LOT OF MONEY GOING AROUND. STRATEGY GIVEN THE POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES. AND CENTER THIS MIDTERM CYCLE. NOT JUST UTILITY COSTS. IT HAS BEEN A CONTINUES TO BE THE CHALLENGE VOTERS SAY IS TOP OF MIND. JUST 20 DAYS FROM NOW. WITH THE INFLATION DATA, IT SHOWS CONSUMER PRICES GOING UP. 3.7% OVERALL ON THE HEADLINE FIGURE.

FOLLOWING. IT BENEFITS THE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT SENATOR. LISTEN. PRESIDENT TRUMP: EVERYTHING YOU ARE CHEERING ABOUT TONIGHT, THE JOBS WILL BE UNBELIEVABLE. WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO WINNING. I RAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR LET ME PUT IT THAT WAY. THAT WILL END VERY SOON. THAT WAR WILL END VERY SOON. THEY ALREADY ARE. JOE: AS WE TURN TO JEFF MASON, CORRESPONDENT. IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU. THAT DID NOT TURN OUT TO BE THE INDEX. MESSAGE BEFORE RALLIES TODAY?

JEFF: I THINK THAT'S DOUBTFUL. THE DATA AS YOU SAY SHOWS WHAT HE IS SAYING FROM THE PODIUM AT THESE RALLIES IS NOT BACKED UP IS IN THE ECONOMY. KEVIN HASSETT IS A TOP ECONOMIC ADVISOR. ANOTHER NETWORK THIS MORNING. THE PRESIDENT HAS ACKNOWLEDGED THERE WILL BE TEMPORARY SETBACKS AS A RESULT OF THE IRAN WAR. THE PRESIDENT HAS EMPLOYED OR AGENDA. THAT IS THE MESSAGING THEY WOULD LIKE TO FOCUS ON. IN THEIR POCKETBOOKS. SET HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST FEW WEEKS.

KAILEY: WHAT SHOULD WE MAKE OF THE DECISION TO TAKE THAT TODAY? JEFF: MONTANA IS A RED STATE. WELL. THE FACT THAT HE DECIDED HE NEEDED TO GO THERE YESTERDAY AND NOW GO TO MONTANA AS WELL IS A REFLECTION OF HOW CONCERNED THE WHITE HOUSE IS AN REPUBLICANS ARE ABOUT LOSING WHAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN SAFE SEATS AND AND SAFE STATES. PRESIDENT TRUMP WON PRETTY ELECTION. THAT IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING HERE. HE'S GOING TO THE STATES TRY AND HELP HOLD ON TO MAJORITIES IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE.

I SPOKE TO ANOTHER WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL WHO SAID THEY SEE A AND SENATE. SOME CONFIDENCE. THAT IS MALIGNED BY THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE TO CREATE A TRAVEL SCHEDULE THAT GOES TO THE BROADER POLITICAL MAP SHOULD NOT BE IN PLAY. JOE: WE WERE WATCHING THE PRESIDENT LAST EVENING IN ALASKA AND I WAS STRUCK BY HIS CLOSING LINE. IN CONCLUSION, IF YOU WERE ELECT A REPUBLICAN HOUSE AND REPUBLICAN SENATE ON NOVEMBER 3, CLOSING ARGUMENT?

JEFF: IT WAS THE KEY ARGUMENT AGO. BRINGING THAT LINE BACK IN THE HOPES THAT MAYBE THE PROMISE OF A CHECK WILL ENCOURAGE PEOPLE FROM HIS BASE AND OTHERWISE REPUBLICANS TO COME OUT. THE QUESTION IS DOES IT WORK. WILL PEOPLE BELIEVE IT? WILL REPUBLICANS EVEN FUND IT IF MAJORITIES? POPULAR EVEN WITH SOMEONE IN HIS BASE LET ALONE DEMOCRATS WHO SUPPORT HE WOULD NEED. THE HOUSE. THANK YOU SO MUCH. POLITICS. GOVERNMENT. INDEPENDENT POLITICS.

THE PROGRAM. WE TALK TO YOU A LOT IN 2024 AS STATES. HOW CRITICAL IS ARIZONA IN THIS A CONTESTED GOVERNOR'S RACE?

STILL AN INCREDIBLY CREDIT -- CRITICAL STATE BECAUSE OF CONGRESSIONAL RACES THAT WILL POWER IN WASHINGTON. IT WILL HELP FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH THE COUNTRY. JOE: GREAT TO SEE YOU AND HAVE YOU BACK WITH US HERE. THE MESSAGE OF AFFORDABILITY IS PRETTY CHALLENGED AT THE MOMENT BY THE PRESIDENT AND SOME REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES. EVERYBODY TAKING A DIFFERENT ANGLE ON THE MESSAGING AROUND THIS. EVENING THAT PRICES WERE ALREADY COMING DOWN IN LIGHT OF THE DATA TODAY SHOWING THE OPPOSITE.

ARIZONA TODAY? SAMARA: THAT IS THE MESSAGE THAT WON HIM THE ELECTION IN 2024. ARE HAVING SO MUCH TROUBLE AT THIS POINT, ARIZONANS AND IMPROVEMENTS. COST OF LIVING IS HIGH, INFLATION IS HIGH, THAT IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. KAILEY: AS WE TALK ABOUT REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS A LOT OF THESE CAMPS WERE ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED AND THEY MAY THEY WOULD SUPPORT THEIR PARTIES IN THIS MIDTERM OR SHOW UP TO THE POLLS TO VOTE FOR THEM.

WHAT ABOUT INDEPENDENTS? HOW ARE THEY RANKING IN THIS ACROSS THE COUNTRY? SAMARA: OVER THE LAST DECADE OR MORE WE HAVE SEEN A GROWING PERCENTAGE OF AMERICANS WHO CALL THEMSELVES INDEPENDENTS. THEY DON'T WANT TO PUBLICLY PARTY. LIKE EITHER PARTY. ARIZONA ARE REGISTERED AS OTHER. THAN DEMOCRATIC VOTERS. IF YOU LOOK AT WHO IS IN CONTROL, YOU HAVE A DEMOCRATIC GENERAL. THE DEMOCRATS AND MOST OF THE THEIR CAMPAIGNS. THIS SUGGESTED INDEPENDENCE ARE PLAYING A REALLY IMPORTANT ROLE IN ARIZONA.

THE INDEPENDENCE ARE REALLY DEMOCRATIC SIDE. JOE: HOW ARE ARIZONANS JUDGING REPUBLICAN PARTY ISSUES SURROUNDING IMMIGRATION? THERE ARE TWO WAYS TO LOOK AT SECURITY. MARKS. THERE ARE MUCH MORE CHALLENGED WHEN IT COMES TO IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT CONSIDERING SOME OF THE VIOLENCE WE HAVE SEEN WITH I.C.E. RAIDS AROUND THE COUNTRY. ARIZONA IS PRETTY CLOSE TO FEELING? SAMARA: 2024, IMMIGRATION WAS A GROUPS. IN ARIZONA, BORDER SECURITY WAS A HUGE ISSUE.

THEY WERE FED UP WITH THE USHERED IN A REPUBLICAN VICTORY TWO YEARS AGO. ANY OTHER CYCLE OR POLITICAL VICTORY LAPS RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER THEY HAVE TWO OTHER ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. ALL OF THE PUBLIC THIS CONTENT MUCH AS EXCESSIVE FORCE. THEY ARE NOT HAPPY WITH THE EXTREMITY WITH THE SUPPORT FOR ENFORCEMENT. IT IS SUCH AN ISSUE FOR VOTERS THAT IN MANY WAYS IT IS OVERSHADOWING THE SUCCESS THE REPUBLICANS MIGHT HAVE BEEN COMES TO BORDER SECURITY.

KAILEY: ON ENFORCEMENT SPECIFICALLY, IS THAT ESPECIALLY TRUE OF LATINO VOTERS WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE IMPACTS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN TEXAS AND FLORIDA WHERE THEY REDREW MAPS? IT SEEMS LIKE THAT IS LESS ABOUT IN ARIZONA? SAMARA: THEY REALLY DID MOVE TOWARDS THE REPUBLICANS IN 2024. HOW DURABLE THAT WAS. THE SIGN OF THE BROADER TREND, SUPPORT FOR TRUMP HAS COME DOWN AS IT HAD FOR MOST OTHER SUBGROUPS OF THE