美国CPI超预期反弹至3.7%，油价与住房推升通胀压力

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the recent CPI report and how the inflation data came in hotter than expected. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel. Give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. As a reminder, the upcoming Investing Through the Cycles conference is next month.

It's just over a month from now. So, if you would like to go, make sure you get your ticket. Ticket prices will be going up in just about two weeks or so. So, on November 1st, make sure you get your ticket before then if you are in fact wanting to attend. So, inflation came in a little hotter than expected, right? So, if we go over to the uh the calendar, you can see that in the inflation rate year-over-year, we were expecting uh 3.6.

And when I say we, I just mean the consensus. Uh the consensus view was 3.6. It actually came in at 3.7, which is above where it was last month of 3.4. And then if you look at core inflation, that consensus was at 24. last month was at 24 and it actually came in at at 2.6. So inflation came in a little bit hotter than what the market was expecting. And if you look at I mean here's the inflation rate. This is the problem is that yes it slowed some over here in the summer but now it's starting to go back up a little bit.

And arguably one of the main reasons that it's going up is because the price of oil, right? I mean, look at this lag here. You see how oil topped in in March and then it bottomed in in June. Really, it was like July 2nd. Oil bottomed July 2nd. If you look at inflation, you can see that it it had this acceleration earlier. It topped in May, right? So there was like a lag on when oil actually topped and then it came back down and it bottomed in July, right?

But but the problem is that oil is still trending higher. And I think as it stands right now, you know, if you listen to what the president of the United States is saying, they're basically saying they're not even going to, you know, deal with Iran until after the midterms. And so if that's true, which to be honest, it's hard to know what's true these days and what's not. But if it's true, then what's to keep oil from just slowly drifting higher into the midterms?

And if that's correct, then I would imagine that these rising energy prices are likely going to affect the inflation report next month as well. So, you know, with inflation starting to trend back up, this becomes a concern. Now, if you look at the contribution, right? Sorry, if we just look at inflation year-over-year per category, uh, and let's sort of expand this out to look at at prior history, and we're going to go through each one.

So, here you have headline. You can see it's starting to move back up. Food and beverage, it actually went down a little bit. Housing went up. And you have to remember the housing accounts for a fairly large part of CPI and often times the contribution of it can literally be like twothirds of the contribution to CPI headline CPI. So it's sort of like a double whammy. I mean you could argue that rising oil prices could affect certain things.

I mean, obviously heating oil for a home and whatnot, but you know, this is something that was up from 3.13 to 3.32 that's going to have an effect on on inflation certainly. Like I mean, it you know, is it just an unlucky print this month? Is it is it does it actually mean something meaningful? I don't know. But housing going up certainly is not going to help inflation. Apparel dropped a little, transportation, where obviously rising energy prices are going to show up. that increased a significant amount and and you can see that you know really ever since early 2026 when the Iran war began uh transportation inflation has been really acceler it's been a lot higher than it was basically since 2022 and then if you look at medical care that's been dropping which I mean it's one of those things where it's like does anyone actually believe it.

But uh I mean I feel like medical care costes costs are just going through the roof. But according to this it's only 1.5% annualized. Uh recreation is up and then education and communication is also up. And then finally other goods and services actually went down a little bit. Now if you weight this by category because they're not all weighted the same. If you wait it by category, um then what you'll see is that you have your you have your headline number here, right?

The blue line. And you can see that uh the housing category is taking up a significant amount. It's not 2/3 like it has been in the past. Um it's it's less, but it I have seen it as high as that uh at times in the past. So you can see that housing is contributing about 1 1.5% of the 3.72. Um transportation is contributing 1.3. Right? And again transportation is one of those things that was deflationary not too long ago but after this conflict in the Middle East it's gone up a lot. that's having a a a really large impact on on headline CPI, which is forcing the Fed to become more restrictive.

And the reason they're having to become more restrictive is because if you look at something like the uh the 2-year yield, right, the 2-year yield is remaining elevated. And I think if you if you look through history and if you go to the workbench here on the website and let's remove the price of Bitcoin and we just look at um uh the 2-year yield, right? So, sorry, if we look at at Treasury yields and then we change this to the 2-year.

So, we have the 2-year yield and we also want to add on here the interest rates, right? Okay, so the Fed funds rate, we do that, we add it on, and what you could argue, we're going to switch them to the same scale, is that the Fed funds rate is essentially just chasing the 2-year yield, right? And 2-year yield is struggling to come back down. Now, what I think is going to happen is that the long end is going to remain elevated until after the midterms, right?

I mean, you can see the 30-year yield has come down a lot. It's starting to go back up a little bit. I think that this stuff is going to remain elevated until after the midterms. And if you look at the year-to- date ROI of um of the long end in midterm years, uh what you'll notice is that the long end typically goes up into kind of the the midterms and then it it'll often fall after the midterms. That doesn't mean it's going to be printing necessarily a macro top, but it could.

But what it normally means is that after the midterms, it normally starts to come down. If you look at 2022 compared to 2026, rates were going a lot up a lot more in 2022 uh in terms of like percentage- wise from the yearly open. But you can see that they kind of topped in late October and then put in a lower high around the midterms. And then if you look in 2018, you can see that the long end topped kind of like in in early October and then it was basically around that same level in early November.

So what I think's happening is that these rising energy prices that are caused by a supply shock, right? It's caused by a supply shock. What that's forcing the Fed to do is forcing the Fed to raise rates into a supply shock because inflation is is going back up. Now, you could argue that why not why doesn't the Fed just simply wait and not raise rates? Well, the issue with that is you're assuming that the war in the Middle East comes to an end, but they don't know that.

I hope it does come to an end, but no one knows whether it's going to come to an end or not. And you know, if you believe the news, it's ended about 57 times over the last year. So, I don't know what to believe, right? If I see a headline that says that it's ended or that there's a ceasefire and then the next day, things just continue as if none of that was said or happened, it's hard to even believe anything that is said, right?

Because every time you read a headline,