特朗普称美仍向乌克兰共享情报，讨论俄乌能源停火与伊朗局势

Have we stopped sharing Intel with you? No we haven't. We have them, but we're really helping them get into a final answer. We want the warranties made here. We are helping them and we are sharing Intel. We want the war to end. So we're working with them and with Russia on getting the war to end. The president also saying that he believes both sides do want to see the war end. And when it comes to this energy cease fire that he announced the two sides had agreed to.

He said he'll let everyone know if Russia has broken it. So for more, we turn now to Kelly Grieco, senior fellow with the reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center, who is back with us once again here on Bloomberg TV and radio. Kelly, it's always good to have you on balance of power when we consider this, uh, energy cease fire that has been announced, whether or not it's been abided by. Can you just talk about how symmetrical it is on either side for Ukraine to with, uh, refrain from striking Russian energy infrastructure versus Russia making the same commitment when it comes to Ukraine.

Yes. So first of all, thanks for having me. It's wonderful to be back. I would just say, you know, both sides are engaged in a war against energy infrastructure. Uh, and it's actually critical to both theory a victory long term. So for the Ukrainians, their course going after, uh, refineries and oil facilities in Russia, because that's what's generating a lot of the revenue that's financing the war. And that has started to have actual impact.

We're seeing that there's something like a decrease around just under 20% and tax revenue, um, that is traditionally coming from the oil industry for Russia. So that's feeding the machine. But then on the other side, the Russians have been going after, uh, Ukrainian energy and electrical grids. And of course, not only does that have a humanitarian implication, but it also impacts the ability to keep production going, particularly defense production for the Ukrainians.

So the question then would be with a cease fire, do they both benefit from a cease fire or does one side benefit asymmetrically? And I would say at this point, I think a cease fire in many respects favors the Russians more. I'm sorry Vega favors the Russians more than the Ukrainians. Um, in the sense that, uh, the Russians, especially if they're able to sell their oil, um, they can get this reserve, uh, you know, uh, cash from that, um, be able to increase production and then ultimately, you know, within maybe after the elections, return back to this long term, um, strike campaign.

So are we just cutting off Ukraine at the knees here by limiting their ability to strike at, uh, at these Russian refineries? Or is there is there another way for Ukraine to inflict damage on its enemy? Yeah. I mean, there's always other ways to inflict damage on your enemy. You know, for example, um, the Ukrainians, for example, haven't really gone after, uh, you know, as much airports, for example, to disrupt travel and things like that.

But there's nothing I would say that I can think of off the top of my head that can have the same potential impact as going after these refineries again, because this is where the revenues are often coming from to generate and feed the war machine. So it has a big impact, I would say, on Russia, on the Ukrainian, um, and particularly what their theory of victory is for trying to reduce some of the pressure on them and make this war less attractive to Putin.

Well, you mentioned targeting airports, Kelly, and while we may not be seeing it in this conflict, we have seen in the Middle East the Houthis targeting Saudi Arabia's main airport in Riyadh and having some success, resulting in multiple fatalities and a number one, hundreds of injuries over the course of a series of days when it comes to this, uh, fight against the Houthis that Saudi and the Saudi led coalition in Yemen are conducting the U.S. to this point has not been participating.

And the president said on True Social today that, uh, he will not be doing anything until after the election, something he reiterated to reporters as he was getting on the helicopter. Just listen. It's behaving very badly and misbehaving very badly. No good. I don't know how it affects the election. I don't take that into account. I just know Iran will never have a weapon and that's now happen. They're never going to have a nuclear weapon.

But, uh, the hoodie is our best behavior yet. I don't know, Kelly, if you would classify what has been happening as simple misbehavior. But what does it say about Saudi Arabia's capabilities with all of the advanced military technology that they have access to, including some of our own, that they are not able to fend off all of the attacks that the Houthis are conducting successfully? Yes. I mean, I think in fairness, though, uh, you know, you're right.

The Saudis have advanced capabilities, many of them from us. Um, but that, you know, it's we can still see the Houthis are able to get things through. I would just say, in fairness to them, though, that the United States conducted a significant operation against the Houthis as well to try to protect, say, commercial shipping. Um, you know, in the Red sea for a time. And we were not successful either. Uh, what we're really seeing is that the who these in particular, they're really good at with these launchers.

Um, hiding them, moving them really quickly. Uh, their practice for over a decade at this. And it makes it really hard to find them and destroy them, and they're able to ultimately get things through. And I think this is one of the reasons probably as well. The president is going to be very reluctant, uh, to get involved in this situation because he's learned already once how challenging this is. And of course, he's, as you noted earlier, very concerned about oil prices.

Mhm. Interesting reporting by the Wall Street Journal today on what might come next. Uh, Kelly, the president has made clear no strikes against Iran until after the midterm elections. We've got another carrier strike group on the way. And now we read that with this, uh, free time on its hands, Tehran is busy fortifying defenses, rallying loyalists, threatening a wider, harsher response against the U.S. and its Gulf allies.

Satellite images show Iran strengthening sensitive locations, including nuclear sites in border areas, to make them more resilient to attacks. What's going to happen on November 4th? Yeah, I mean, the first thing I just say is that this, uh, you know, the president saying he's not going to do anything before the election. Okay, that might be true, but the adversary, Iran, may choose to do something before the election.

And I think you could make an argument that if you're sitting in Tehran and looking at this and hearing these kinds of comments, that in fact, you see that there's actually maybe good incentives here to actually escalate before the election and put even more pressure on the president. So I think that's something we should just be be very aware of is that this is dangerous. Um, you know, the potential for escalation here and the fact that you're reporting that they're, um, you know, reinforcing their defenses and getting ready for another round suggests that they're prepared to do this.

They're prepared to escalate, and, in fact, might think that it's quite likely. It's only a question of when does Iran have greater capability to escalate right now, despite all of the destruction that the US military wrought on Iran's military industrial complex, trying to take out, uh, the centers of this activity, are they still able to escalate in a way that the U.S. might be reluctant to? Given our own drawdowns of munitions?

Yes they do. I mean, based on what we know in terms of open source information, um, about what they have in terms of capabilities, what it means is that during the course of the war, the United States buried a lot of the