特朗普拟释放俄柴油库存并提议能源休战引共和党担忧
Trump’s Diesel Deal With Putin Stirs GOP Unease | Balance of Power
涉及重大地缘政策转向与大宗商品(柴油)供给机制变化,直接影响能源市场定价逻辑与合规风险,值得宏观与商品交易者重点关注。
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The president's trip to Ohio. He's on route right now with 22 days left until the midterm elections. We're 3 weeks out from tomorrow. And the administration has decided, and frankly this shouldn't really be news, that Ohio is must win. This is Senator John Houston's seat, that which was held at one time by a man named J. D. Vance. And the prior occupant of a Senate seat in Ohio, Sharon Brown, wants the job back. And this has become a knockdown dragout.
总统前往俄亥俄州的行程。他目前正在途中,距离中期选举还有22天。明天起还有3周时间。政府已经决定,坦率地说这其实算不上新闻,即俄亥俄州是必须赢下的选区。这是约翰·休斯顿参议员的席位,该席位曾由一位名叫J.D.万斯的人担任。此前在俄亥俄州担任参议员席位的莎朗·布朗希望夺回这一职位。这场竞选变得异常激烈。
One of the most expensive Senate races in the country right up there with Texas, Paxton, and Tal Rico. So this evening, the president will hold forth talking about all the issues that we bear down on here every day, including yes, the price of gas, the price of diesel, and all of it leads itself to the whole situation in Ukraine. We're going to connect the dots on these issues after a wild weekend in geopolitics. Bloomberg, Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall joins us right now from the north lawn of the White House with the president on his way to Ohio.
这是全国最昂贵的参议院竞选之一,与德克萨斯州、帕克斯顿和塔尔·里科的竞选不相上下。今晚,总统将就我们每天深入探讨的所有议题发表讲话,包括汽油价格、柴油价格等,所有这些最终都指向乌克兰局势。我们将在地缘政治经历一个动荡的周末后,将这些议题联系起来。彭博社华盛顿记者泰勒·肯德尔现在从白宫北草坪随同即将前往俄亥俄州的总统为我们带来报道。
Tyler, you can tell us more about uh this energy ceasefire uh that the president announced over the weekend because it's the very thing that he needs at least in terms of what the administration is telling us in lowering prices to make an argument before a crowd like he is speaking to today in Ohio. What do we know about this Russian diesel getting into the market?
泰勒,你能告诉我们更多关于总统周末宣布的能源停火协议吗?因为至少就政府告诉我们的情况而言,降低油价是他今天要在俄亥俄州向人群论证的关键内容。关于俄罗斯柴油进入市场的情况,我们了解多少?
Well, Joe, at this point, President Trump announced over the weekend that we were going to see an energy truce and that we would stop seeing attacks on refineries and power plants. Though, we've heard from both sides in this conflict, Russia and Ukraine, both seeming to indicate that they were not aware nor have signed on to any such agreement. That is one part of the White House's push to get there to be a stop in targeting Russian diesel refineries in particular.
乔,目前为止,特朗普总统在周末宣布我们将迎来能源休战,并将停止对炼油厂和发电厂的袭击。然而,我们已从冲突双方——俄罗斯和乌克兰——听到消息,双方似乎都表示他们对此类协议并不知情,也未签署任何此类协议。这是白宫推动停止针对俄罗斯炼油厂特别是柴油炼油厂打击的一部分。
That goes handinhand with the announcement that we got last week and which you alluded to, which is that 13.5 million barrels of Russian diesel will be released from stockpiles over time. Though there are questions here about just how much of an impact that will really make in the market. Our own analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence released a new analysis earlier this morning that said the initial supply probably won't have that big an impact on prices that we pay at the pump.
这与上周我们宣布且你有所提及的消息相辅相成,即俄罗斯将从战略储备中逐步释放1350万桶柴油。尽管目前仍有疑问,称此举对市场的实际影响究竟有多大。彭博情报(Bloomberg Intelligence)的分析师今早早些时候发布了一项新分析,指出初期的供应可能不会对我们加油时支付的价格产生太大影响。
And that the bigger question here is whether or not Russian refineries can rebuild and actually increase their output. Which then brings us back around to the beginning here, which is that we would need to see those attacks stopped. But Russia continues to hit Ukraine. Plus, Joe, that doesn't even get into some of the legal questions that members on Capitol Hill are raising uh about uh this potential deal to release Russian stockpiles considering it upends what has been years of sanctions practice here in the US.
更大的问题在于,俄罗斯的炼油厂能否重建并真正提高产量。这又把我们带回了起点,即我们需要看到这些袭击停止。但俄罗斯仍在持续打击乌克兰。此外,乔,这甚至还没有涉及到国会山成员就这一潜在释放俄罗斯储备的交易提出的某些法律问题,考虑到它颠覆了美国多年来实施的制裁惯例。
Yeah, we're going to ask Congressman Mike Lawler about that uh when he joins us in a few moments. I know that he had strong feelings about that Russia sanctions bill. Is this all part of the address this evening? Uh Tyler, do we have a sense of what the president's message will be in Ohio?
是的,我们将在几分钟后请众议员迈克·劳勒(Mike Lawler)加入讨论时就这一点向他提问。我知道他对这项俄罗斯制裁法案持有强烈看法。这一切都是今晚讲话的一部分吗?泰勒,我们对总统在俄亥俄州的讲话内容有什么了解吗?
Well, we did get somewhat of a preview, if you will, Joe, because this marks President Trump's second visit to Ohio in the last 10 days. So, if we get some of our cues from the last time he was there, he touted corporate investment in the state, bringing manufacturing jobs in, in particular, when it comes to the steel and auto industry. He touted uh a new plant that's being built by Stalantis. Maybe this is going to take a very similar tact tonight.
嗯,如果你愿意的话,我们确实得到了一些预览,乔,因为这是特朗普总统在过去10天内第二次访问俄亥俄州。因此,如果我们从他上次在那里时的表现中寻找一些线索,他吹嘘了该州的企业合作投资,特别是带来了制造业工作岗位,尤其是在钢铁和汽车行业方面。他还吹嘘了一家由Stalantis公司建设的新工厂。也许今晚他会采取非常相似的策略。
We're going to have to see. But the fact that he is there in such a short amount of time does underscore that Republicans are feeling the pressure when it comes to this contest. You mentioned it, incumbent Republican Senator John Houston against former Senator Shared Brown. Our viewers may know him as the former head of the Senate Banking Committee. And there's a lot of time going into this election. Keep in mind, President Trump won Ohio by 11 percentage points in 2024.
我们将拭目以待。但他如此短的时间内再次到访的事实确实凸显了共和党人在这场竞选中所感受到的压力。你提到了现任共和党参议员约翰·休斯顿(John Houston)对阵前参议员谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)。我们的观众可能知道他曾是参议院银行委员会的主席。距离这次选举还有很长时间。请记住,特朗普总统在2024年以11个百分点的优势赢得了俄亥俄州。
This was considered to be Republican territory. There's also so much money going into this election, Joe. Uh, the largest Republican super PAC pouring in hundred million dollar into this race so far, and we're not even towards the finish line.
这曾被认为是共和党的地盘。乔,这次选举也投入了大量资金。迄今为止,最大的共和党超级政治行动委员会已向这场竞选注入了上亿美元,而我们甚至还未接近终点线。
Wow. Um, you probably heard what the president said about President Zalinski. Donald Trump uh has been blaming President Zilinski for bombing Russian refineries, helping to lift the price, knowing, of course, that that the war with Iran has played a big role in this as well. But it's distillates we're talking about here. And diesel has been feeling the weight of these attacks on Russian refineries, which is why the president advanced this idea of an energy ceasefire.
哇。嗯,你可能听到了总统关于扎连斯基总统的讲话。唐纳德·特朗普一直在指责泽连斯基轰炸俄罗斯炼油厂,帮助推高价格,当然也知道伊朗战争在此过程中也起到了重要作用。但这里我们说的是馏分油。柴油一直承受着对俄罗斯炼油厂袭击的压力,这就是为什么总统提出了能源停火这一构想。
But listen to what he said about Zalinski in the driveway on Friday.
但听听他在周五在车道上对扎连斯基说了什么。
You've lost 30% of your country and you've had over a million people killed. Between the two of them, over two million people killed. That's a war that should have never started. And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president. Wow, Tyler. Um, are we back to where we were following that first Oval Office meeting between these two? That didn't sound good.
你失去了30%的国家领土,超过一百万人丧生。双方加起来,超过两百万人死亡。这是一场本不该开始的战争。我认为现在是乌克兰换一位总统的时候了。哇,泰勒。嗯,我们是否又回到了这两位领导人首次椭圆形办公室会晤后的那种状态?听起来情况不妙。
This has been a push and pull in the relationship at this point for months. We've heard before that there would be an energy ceasefire that didn't end up happening. We've heard before President Trump calling for the Ukrainian President Zalinsky to step down. Now, we should say Ukrainian President Sullinsky did a flurry of media interviews earlier today. He himself broadcasted on his own social media channels. He one confirmed that Ukraine would stop hitting Russian refineries, but only if Russia stops its attacks first.
到目前为止,这种关系中的推拉态势已经持续了数月。我们之前曾听到过能源停火的说法,但最终并未实现。我们也曾听到特朗普总统呼吁乌克兰总统泽连斯基下台。现在,我们应该指出,乌克兰总统泽连斯基本人今天早些时候密集接受了媒体采访。他通过自己的社交媒体频道进行了广播。他确认乌克兰将停止打击俄罗斯炼油厂,但前提是俄罗斯先停止其袭击。
And that means that Ukraine will not be stopping its long range strikes in particular. He also did confirm that he would be willing to hold an election in Ukraine, but if this truce were fully implemented, that has put the ball in the Kremlin's court. We did hear from Russian state media earlier today saying that the Kremlin didn't have a comment on at this time when it comes to this proposed Russian truth uh energy truce rather.
这意味着乌克兰不会停止其远程打击,尤其是此类打击。他还确认愿意在乌克兰举行选举,但如果这项休战协议得到全面执行,那么球就踢到了克里姆林宫那边。我们今天早些时候从俄罗斯国家媒体获悉,克里姆林宫对此项所谓的俄方能源休战提议目前暂无评论。
So uh at this point we're still waiting for additional details from the White House on what if anything was really worked out for a tangible deal that could ultimately lend to getting these two sides back to the negotiating table.
因此,就目前而言,我们仍在等待白宫提供更多细节,看看究竟是否达成了任何实质性的协议,从而最终促使这两方面重新回到谈判桌前。
Tyler, thank you. Live at the White House, Bloomberg, Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall. As we turn to the voice of Mike Lawler, as we mentioned, the Republican congressman from New York joining us today on Bloomberg TV and radio. He's a member of the House Financial Services Committee, which is why we speak so frequently about uh issues involving the Federal Reserve. He's also on the Foreign Relations Committee, which uh dials us directly into the story that we're talking about.
泰勒,谢谢你。我是彭博社驻华盛顿记者泰勒·肯德尔,正在白宫现场报道。接下来让我们听听迈克·莱勒的声音。正如我们之前提到的,这位来自纽约的共和党众议员今天做客彭博电视和广播节目。他是众议院金融服务委员会成员,这也是我们经常讨论涉及美联储议题的原因。他还担任外交关系委员会成员,这使我们直接切入当前正在讨论的话题。
Congressman, it's good to have you back on Bloomberg. Um I'd love to know where your thoughts are on this Russian diesel deal. It's very complicated realizing that we had the Russian sanctions bill that you co-sponsored and I know that that was something you felt passionately about at the time in your statement. You said oil revenue, banks, oligarchs, and the shadow fleet have kept this war machine running. But as I heard from some Republicans over the weekend, they said, "Look, this is a president that's just trying to do what he can for the American people."
众议员,很高兴您再次做客彭博社。我很想知道您对这项俄罗斯柴油交易有何看法。此事非常复杂,考虑到我们曾共同赞助了针对俄罗斯的制裁法案,我知道当时您在声明中对此事充满热情。您曾表示,石油收入、银行、寡头以及影子船队让这台战争机器得以运转。但正如我周末从一些共和党人那里听到的,他们说:‘看,这是一位总统,他正尽力为美国人民做事。’
How do you see it? Well, of course, there's domestic politics and and uh economics that of of course we want to bring down diesel and uh fuel prices across the country. There's also
您如何看待此事?嗯,当然,这里既有国内政治因素,也有经济因素。我们当然希望降低全国范围内的柴油和燃料价格。此外还有
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