特朗普与俄罗斯达成柴油协议引争议，泽连斯基称愿停火
Zelenskyy Says Open to Energy Ceasefire if Russia Agrees
涉及美俄能源交易落地及中东军事升级风险，直接影响原油/柴油供需预期与地缘流动性，建议关注油价波动及政策后续影响。
THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" LIVE FROM WASHINGTON DC. JOE: TONIGHT ESCALATION IN THE GULF. SAUDI ARABIA VALVES RETALIATION AFTER A DEADLY BARRAGE OF WO HOUTHI ATTACKS. THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT GAS JOINS US NOW ON WHETHER THE LATEST ESCALATION COULD BRING THE U.S. MORE DIRECTLY INTO THE FIGHT. AND BACK ON THE TRAIL. PRESIDENT TRUMP'S INCREASINGLY WARM POSTURE TOWARDS VLADIMIR PUTIN GIVING REPUBLICANS A NEW HEADACHE. THE ROOT -- THE PRESIDENT'S NEW DIESEL DEAL WITH MOSCOW ADDING TO THE UNEASE.
这里是华盛顿特区直播的“权力平衡”。乔：今晚海湾局势升级。沙特阿拉伯在胡塞武装致命袭击后酝酿报复。卡内基基金会嘉宾 joins 我们，讨论最新升级是否会将美国更直接地卷入战斗。此外，特朗普总统对弗拉基米尔·普京的态度日益温和，给共和党人带来新的头疼问题。根源——总统与莫斯科达成的新柴油协议加剧了不安。
REPUBLICANS ARE DEFENDING CLOSELY WATCHED RACES UP AND DOWN THE BALLOT. WE TALK MIDTERMS WITH TIM MOORE FROM NORTH CAROLINA. AND NEW QUESTIONS ARE SURFACING AFTER ANTHROPIC DISCLOSED ITS CLAWED AI MODEL ACTED ON ITS OWN IN A NUMBER OF NEW INSTANCES INCLUDING SUBMITTING A FALSE HOMICIDE TIP TO POLICE. THE LATEST INCIDENTS PROMPTING TECH LEADERS TO CALL FOR AN EMERGENCY BRAKE FOR AI EVEN AS MUCH A PUSH IS FULL STEAM AHEAD WITH ITS LATEST MODEL.
共和党人正在捍卫选票上下备受关注的席位。我们与来自北卡罗来纳州的蒂姆·摩尔探讨中期选举。Anthropic 披露其 Clawed AI 模型在包括向警方提交虚假凶杀举报在内的多个新实例中自行行动后，新的疑问浮现。最新事件促使科技领袖呼吁为 AI 踩下紧急刹车，尽管其最新模型的推进正全速前进。
FROM BLOOMBERG'S WASHINGTON DC STUDIOS TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, WELCOME TO BALANCE OF POWER. WE BEGIN WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP EN ROUTE TO YOUNGSTOWN, OHIO CONTINUING HIS WHIRLWIND CAMPAIGN TO WORK WITH JUST THREE WEEKS TO ELECTION DAY. THE PRESIDENT WILL ADD THE REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLDS OF ALASKA AND MONTANA THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER STOP IN ARIZONA AS THE VICE PRESIDENT MAKES ANOTHER CAMPING VISIT TO TEXAS. THE RED STATE CAMPAIGN BLITZ COMING AS HISTORICALLY HIGH-ENERGY PRICES CONTINUES TO SQUEEZE VOTERS WITH THE THREAT OF A WIDENING CONFLICT IN THE GOLF ADDING TO THE PRESSURE.
从彭博社华盛顿特区演播室到全球电视和广播观众，欢迎收看“权力平衡”。我们从特朗普总统前往俄亥俄州扬斯敦开始报道，他继续以旋风般的竞选节奏工作，距离选举日仅剩三周。本周总统将访问阿拉斯加和蒙大拿这两个共和党堡垒，并在亚利桑那州进行另一站行程，而副总统则再次前往德克萨斯州进行露营访问。随着历史上高企的能源价格持续挤压选民，加之海湾冲突扩大威胁带来的压力，这场红色州的竞选闪电战正在进行。
AND THE PRESIDENT'S FACING BACKLASH OVER HIS DEAL WITH THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT TO BRING RUSSIAN DIESEL BACK ON THE MARKETS. PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY CONDEMNING THAT DEAL AS A GIFT TO MOSCOW. SOME LEADERS WE ARE HEARING FROM HERE ON BLOOMBERG. FOR MORE ON THAT AND ALL THE NEWS ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST WE GO TO KATE SULLIVAN WHO IS LIVE ON THE NORTH LAWN OF THE WHITE HOUSE. IS THIS ENERGY CEASE-FIRE ACTUALLY IN PLACE? KATE: WE WILL SEE.
总统因与俄罗斯总统达成协议将俄罗斯柴油重新带回市场而面临反弹。泽连斯基总统谴责该协议是送给莫斯科的礼物。我们正在彭博社听到一些领导人的反应。关于此事以及中东所有新闻，我们连线在白宫外草坪现场报道的凯特·沙利文。这项能源停火协议真的生效了吗？凯特：我们将拭目以待。
THE PRESIDENT IS DEFENDING THE NEW DIESEL DEAL THIS MORNING AND THIS IS AS U.S. LAWMAKERS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE ARE CRITICIZING THE DEAL SAYING IT APPEARS TO VIOLATE U.S. LAW THAT BARS RUSSIAN ENERGY EXPORTS UNTIL RUSSIA ENDS IS WAR IN UKRAINE. THIS NEW DEAL IS A PRETTY STUNNING REVERSAL WHEN IT COMES TO U.S. PRESSURE ON MOSCOW SINCE THE WAR BEGAN. THE PRESIDENT TOOK TOE SOCIAL MEDIA THIS MORNING TO SAY HE MADE THE RIGHT DECISION FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
总统今早为新柴油协议辩护，与此同时，两党议员都在批评该协议，称其似乎违反了禁止俄罗斯能源出口直至俄罗斯结束乌克兰战争的美国法律。自战争爆发以来，这一新协议在对莫斯科施压方面构成了相当惊人的逆转。总统今早在社交媒体上表示，他为美国人民做出了正确的决定。
THIS IS AS THE WHITE HOUSE IS LOOKING FOR NEW WAYS TO BRING HIGH FUEL PRICES DOWN AND HIGH DIESEL PRICES IN PARTICULAR DOWN AHEAD OF THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS TAKING PLACE IN JUST A FEW WEEKS. THE HIGH FUEL PRICES HAVE BECOME A BIG ISSUE FOR REPUBLICANS IN COMPETITIVE RACES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE PRESIDENT IS ABOUT TO DEPART THE WHITE HOUSE FOR OHIO. HE IS GOING TO OHIO FOR A CAMPAIGN RALLY TO RALLY FOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES THERE.
正如白宫正在寻找降低高油价的新方法，尤其是柴油价格，为几周后即将举行的中期选举做准备。高油价已成为共和党在全国各地竞争激烈的选区中的一个重大问题。总统即将离开白宫前往俄亥俄州。他要去俄亥俄州参加一场竞选集会，为该州的共和党候选人造势。
THIS IS THE SECOND TIME IN 10 DAYS HE HAS GONE TO OHIO. HE WILL BE GOING TO ALASKA AND MONTANA THIS WEEK. ALL STATES HE WON IN 2020 FOUR. THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE HAS SINCE THEN CHANGED CONSIDERABLY. JOE: THE PRESIDENT AHEAD OF BOARD AND MARINE ONE ASKED ABOUT THE DEAL BETWEEN MOSCOW AND UKRAINE SAID "THEY AGREED TO BECAUSE I SAID THEY AGREED." WHEN PRESENTED WITH CONFLICTING INFORMATION ON THIS. YOU MENTIONED THAT THE PRICE OF DIESEL AND THAT BRINGS US TO THE PERSIAN GULF AND A BUSY AND TRAGIC WEEKEND AS SAUDI ARABIA SAW MULTIPLE ATTACKS AGAINST THE MAIN AIRPORT IN RIYADH KILLING AT LEAST 14 PEOPLE AND INJURING HUNDREDS OF OTHERS.
这是他在10天内第二次前往俄亥俄州。本周他将前往阿拉斯加和蒙大拿州。这些州都是他在2020年赢得的四个州之一。此后政治格局发生了巨大变化。乔：在空军一号和海军陆战队一号前，总统被问及莫斯科与乌克兰之间的协议，他说：“他们同意是因为我说他们同意了。”当被提供关于此事的相互矛盾的信息时。你提到了柴油的价格，这把我们带到了波斯湾，以及一个繁忙而悲惨的周末，沙特阿拉伯目睹了对利雅得主要机场的多起袭击，造成至少14人死亡，数百人受伤。
THE ATTACKS CAME FROM HOUTHIS REBELS IN YEMEN. KATE: WE ARE WATCHING THESE COMMENTS. THE PRESIDENT IS SPEAKING TO REPORTERS RIGHT NOW ON THE SOUTH LAWN SO WE WILL SEE WHAT HE SAYS THERE BUT THE LATEST WE HEARD FROM THE PRESIDENT ON THIS WAS OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN HE TOLD REPORTERS THAT HE IS CONSIDERING JOINING SAUDI ARABIA OR THE STRIKES AGAINST THE HOUTHIS. HE SAID HE IS CONSIDERING IT AND IT MAY HAPPEN. THIS WAS AFTER AN ATTACK ON RIYADH'S MAIN AIRPORT ON SATURDAY.
袭击来自也门的胡塞叛军。凯特：我们正在关注这些评论。总统现在正在南草坪接受记者采访，所以我们将看看他会说什么，但我们从总统那里听到的最新消息是在周末，当时他告诉记者，他正在考虑加入沙特阿拉伯或打击胡塞武装的行动。他说他正在考虑，这可能会发生。这是在周六对利雅得主要机场发动袭击之后。
AN AMERICAN CITIZEN WAS AMONG THOSE KILLED IN THE ATTACK ON SATURDAY. SAUDI ARABIA HAS BEEN TRYING SINCE THE TENSIONS FLARED UP, HAS BEEN TRYING TO GET THE U.S. TO ASSIST THEM. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN, THIS COULD POTENTIALLY OPEN UP A WHOLE NEW FRONT ON THE WAR IN IRAN AND FURTHER ENMESHED THE U.S. MILITARY IN THE REGION. JOE: BLOOMBERG'S KATE SULLIVAN WITH US LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE. FOR MORE ON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER U.S.
一名美国公民在周六的袭击中遇难。自紧张局势升级以来，沙特阿拉伯一直在试图让美国协助他们。如果这种情况真的发生，这可能会在伊朗战争中开辟一个全新的战线，并使美军进一步卷入该地区。乔：彭博社的凯特·沙利文正在白宫现场报道。更多关于中东事态发展以及美国进一步介入的可能性。
INVOLVEMENT, WE BRING IN AARON DAVID MILLER. GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK. WHAT WOULD BE THE POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS, THE IMPACT REGIONALLY IF THE U.S. WERE TO JOIN SAUDI ARABIA IN NOT JUST INTELLIGENT SUPPORT BUT MILITARILY ATTACKING THE HOUTHIS IN YEMEN?
我们请来了亚伦·戴维·米勒。很高兴再次见到你。如果美国不仅提供情报支持，而且在军事上攻击也门的胡塞武装，这将产生什么样的政治影响，对该地区会产生什么影响？
WE SAW THIS BEFORE IN MARCH THROUGH MAY 2025 WITH THE U.S. NAVY AND AIR FORCE CONDUCTING OVER 1000 STRIKES AGAINST HOUTHIS COMMAND AND CONTROL FACILITIES IN YEMEN. THEY WERE FORCED ULTIMATELY -- JOE: HAS IT CHANGED THE COMPLEXION OF THE ATTACKS IF WE ARE FLYING WING TO WING WITH THE SAUDI'S?
我们在2025年3月至5月期间曾见过这种情况，当时美国海军和空军对胡塞武装在也门的指挥与控制设施进行了超过1000次打击。他们最终被迫……乔：如果我们与沙特人并肩作战，这是否改变了攻击的态势？
YOU HAVE A MINI FOREVER WAR WITHIN A BROADER FOREVER WAR. THE SAUDI'S ARE INCREDIBLY VULNERABLE. SAUDI INFRASTRUCTURE IS MORE VALUABLE THAN THE HOUTHIS AND THE HOUTHIS IS DETERMINED TO DEMONSTRATE THAT PROXIMITY IS IMPORTANT. I'M NOT ENTIRELY SURE THAT EVEN IF YOU ADDED THE MIGHTY POWER OF THE UNITED STATES WHETHER OR NOT YOU COULD COME UP WITH A -- HERE. YOU CAN DEGRADE ALL KINDS OF ASSETS FROM THE ERROR. WE'VE TRIED IT BEFORE.
你在更广泛的‘永恒战争’中经历了一场小型‘永恒战争’。沙特人极其脆弱。沙特的基础设施比胡塞武装更有价值，而胡塞武装决心证明‘邻近性’至关重要。我不完全确定，即使加上美国的强大力量，你们能否提出一个方案——在这里。你们可以削弱来自亚丁湾的各种资产。我们以前试过。
WITHOUT MUCH SUCCESS IN CHANGING THE POLITICAL CALCULATIONS OF THE REGIME BEND I DON'T THINK, FRANKLY, GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE HOUTHIS BELIEVE THEY HAVE THE ADVANTAGE. THEY WANT CERTAIN THINGS FROM THE SAUDI'S. THEY WANT THE END TO THE SAUDI SPONSORED CAMPAIGN AGAINST THEM, SUPPORTING THE YEMEN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. THEY WANT SALARIES PAID AND A RECOGNITION OF HOUTHI PREEMINENCE IN YEMEN AND A GUARANTEE THAT THERE WILL BE NO STRIKES AGAINST THE AIRPORT.
在改变政权政治计算方面并没有取得多大成功。坦率地说，鉴于胡塞武装认为自己拥有优势，我不认为如此。他们希望从沙特人那里得到某些东西。他们希望结束沙特支持的针对他们的运动，即支持也门中央政府。他们希望获得薪水支付，并承认胡塞武装在也门的优越地位，以及保证不对机场进行打击。
YOU HAVE TWO BIG CONFERENCES COMING OUT. THE INVESTMENT INITIATIVE BRINGING TOP-FLIGHT AMERICAN HEADS OF FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS TO SAUDI ARABIA. WILL THAT GO ON? HOUTHIS ARE DEMONSTRATING THERE IS A PRICE TO BE PAID WITH SAUDI VISION OF THIS KIND OF SECURITY AND STABILITY THAT THEY NEED IN ORDER TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT TO THE KINGDOM. JOE: A LOT OF MEMBERS FROM OUR AUDIENCE INVOLVED IN THAT CONFERENCE. I CAN ONLY IMAGINE WHAT WENT THROUGH YOUR MIND WITH THE BRAZEN DAYTIME ATTACK AGAINST THE RIYADH AIRPORT.
有两场大型会议即将召开。投资倡议将顶级美国金融机构负责人带到沙特阿拉伯。那还会继续吗？胡塞武装正在表明，沙特需要这种类型的安全和稳定以吸引投资到王国，但为此需付出代价。乔：我们观众中的许多成员参与了那场会议。我只能想象你对利雅得机场公然进行的白天袭击有何感想。
ARE THE SAUDI'S LOSING MORE AGAINST THE HOUTHIS?
沙特人在对抗胡塞武装时损失更大吗？
WINNERS OR LOSERS -- IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS. NO SAUDI REGIME WITH THIS KING OR THE OTHER SEVEN --NO SAUDI RULER CAN ALLOW THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO BE TURNED INTO A FREE FIRE ZONE LED BY A GROUP OF ISLAMIC MILITIAS DETERMINED, BASICALLY, TO BECOMEIRAN'S MOST VALUABLE PROXY. THEY HAVE SOMETHING HAS BALA DOESN'T AND THAT IS GEOGRAPHY AND DESTINY. WHERE THEY ARE JUXTAPOSED TO THESE SO-CALLED GATE OF TEARS THROUGH WHICH 10% OF GLOBAL OIL TRAFFIC FLOWS, THE HOUTHIS ARE THERE.
赢家或输家——很难评估。无论是现任国王还是其他七位统治者，任何沙特统治者都不能允许南部边境变成一个由一群伊斯兰民兵主导的自由交战区，这些民兵基本上决心成为伊朗最有价值的代理人。他们拥有巴林所没有的东西，那就是地理和命运。他们与所谓的‘泪之门’相邻，全球10%的石油流量流经此处，胡塞武装就在那里。
AND JUST AS THE IRANIANS ARE TRYING TO LEVERAGE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THE HOUTHIS WILL DO AT THE GATE OF TEARS. I THINK WE ARE IN THIS FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND I SEE NO PROSPECT, NO REASON OR URGENCY ON THE PART OF THE ADMINISTRATION. MIDTERMS, OIL PRICES OR ON THE PART OF THE IRANIANS TO FIND A DIPLOMATIC DE-ESCALATORY OFFRAMP. JOE: WE TALK ABOUT ENERGY PRICES EVERY DAY AND ALL DAY IT SEEMS HERE ON BLOOMBERG AND IN THE WORLD OF POLITICS JUST LIKE THEY DO IN THE MARKETS.
正如伊朗人正试图利用霍尔木兹海峡一样，胡塞武装也将在‘泪之门’采取行动。我认为我们将长期处于这种局面中，我看不到政府方面、中期选举、油价或伊朗方面有任何前景、理由或紧迫性去寻求外交降级方案。乔：在彭博社以及政治界和市场中，我们似乎每天都在、每时每刻都在讨论能源价格问题。
OUR ENERGY CONCERNS IN THE MIDDLE EAST THE STRONGEST LEVERAGE IRAN HAS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES? AND WHAT DOES A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT LOOK LIKE?
我们在中东的能源担忧是什么？伊朗对美国最强的杠杆是什么？谈判达成的解决方案是什么样的？
A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT BEFORE THE WAR WOULD'VE BEEN CONSTRAINTS ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM WHICH WAS THE OSTENSIBLE REASON FOR THE WAR. I THINK THAT DEAL IS STILL AVAILABLE. IT WOULD CONCEDE SOMETHING BE ADMINISTRATION UNDERSTANDABLY DOES NOT WANT TO CONCEDE WHICH IS A NEW SET OF ARRANGEMENTS WITH THE OMANI'S IN TOW ON THE STRAITS. GOLDMAN SACHS REPORTED THAT BY 2020 740% OF PREWAR OIL TRAFFIC THROUGH THE -- 2027 40% OF PREWAR OIL TRAFFIC TH
战前的谈判解决方案将是对伊朗核计划的限制，而这正是战争的公开理由。我认为该协议仍然可行。它将做出一些让步，这是政府显然不愿做出的让步，即在与阿曼人同行下对海峡的新安排。高盛报告称，到2027年，通过……的战前石油交通量的40%（注：原文此处数字及语句似有截断或错误，'740%'疑为笔误，按原文直译保留）
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力