美债收益率创20年新高，市场热议加息周期与通胀
Global Bond Selloff, US Benchmark Slides, Paramount's Debt
美债收益率创20年新高是宏观市场的核心变量，直接影响全资产定价与流动性预期。本资讯提供了关于收益率驱动因素（实际利率、借贷需求）及机构观点的最新讨论，建议关注后续就业与通胀数据对加息路径的指引。
FROM NEW YORK CITY, FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, I'M EMILY GRAFFEO, IN FOR SCARLET FU. "BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD" STARTS RIGHT NOW. COMING UP, GLOBAL GOVERNMENT BONDS POSTED THEIR WAS QUARTER SINCE 2024 AS THE SELLOFF ROLLS ON. THE U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD HITTING THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN TWO DECADES. PARAMOUNT SEALING THE DEAL, FINANCING ITS TAKEOVER OF WARNER BROTHERS WITHIN A START DEBT PACKAGE. WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE, ELEVATED YIELDS GRABBING ALL HEADLINES.
来自纽约市，向全球观众报道，我是艾米莉·格拉菲奥（Emily Graffeo），代播斯卡莱特·富（Scarlet Fu）的节目。《彭博实际收益率》现在开始播出。即将播出：随着抛售持续，全球政府债券在2024年录得最差季度表现。美国10年期收益率触及二十年最高水平。派拉蒙敲定交易，以高杠杆债务包融资收购华纳兄弟。我们从重大议题开始，高企的收益率占据所有头条新闻。
YOU ARE GOING TO NEED TO SEE SOME DATA SLOWDOWN.
你需要看到一些数据放缓的迹象。
INFLATION IS NOT GOING AWAY AND THE BOND MARKET IS REFLECTING THAT.
通胀并未消退，债券市场对此有所反映。
WE HAVE SEEN THE RISE IN YIELDS IS THE STARTING TO SLOW THE ECONOMY.
我们看到收益率上升正在开始减缓经济活动。
THE RESET IN YIELDS IS GOOD NEWS FOR INVESTORS.
收益率的重新定价对投资者来说是好消息。
THE FRONT E OFFERSND-- END OFFERS A REALLY ATTRACTIVE OPPORTUNITY.
前端提供——短期端提供了一个非常有吸引力的机会。
I THINK IT WAS A VOLATILITY.
我认为这是一种波动性。
IT DOES NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WAS THE PEAK AND VALLEY.
感觉这并非峰值和谷值的终结。
ONE OF THE REASONS YOU CAN BACK OFF ON OCTOBER THE WHOLE CURVE HAS SHIFTED HIGHER.
你可以从十月开始回调的原因之一是整个收益率曲线已上移。
WE HAVE BACKED UP TO THE OCTOBER HIKE AS OF THIS MORNING. DECEMBER IS LOOKING LIKE A HIKE.
截至今天早上，我们已回溯至十月的加息预期。十二月看起来也像是一次加息。
THESE INCREASES TAKE TIME TO FLOW INTO THE REAL ECONOMY.
这些增加需要时间才能传导至实体经济。
RISKS ARE RISING, NOT FALLING. EMILY: WE ARE KEEPING IT SIMPLE. THE RISE IN LONG-TERM RATES AS THE U.S. 10-YEAR YELLED HITS THE HIGHEST POINT SINCE 2002. 30-YEAR LOOKS THE SAME. U.S. BENCHMARK, YOU CAN SEE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOVE. IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SLOWING ANYTIME SOON, AS THE FEARS ABOUT THE PHYSICAL PICTURE IN THE U.S. -- FISCAL PICTURE IN THE U.S., RISING INFLATION, AND CAN THE FED CONTAIN THAT INFLATION.
风险正在上升，而非下降。艾米莉：我们保持简单。长期利率上升，美国10年期收益率自2002年以来达到最高点。30年期情况类似。美国基准指标，你可以看到这次波动的幅度。它似乎不会很快放缓，因为对美国财政状况、通胀上升以及美联储能否遏制通胀的担忧日益加剧。
TAKE A LOOK AT THE 30-YEAR YIELD. SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A RELIEF RALLY ACROSS THE CURVE, PARTICULARLY IN THE FRONT END. THE STORY FOR THIS WEEK AND BASICALLY ALL THIS FALL IS THE LONGER-TERM YIELDS HITTING THE HIGHEST LEVELS IN MULTIPLE DECADES. EARLIER ON "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE," NEEL KASHKARI SPOKE ABOUT HOW HIGHER RATES ARE AFFECTING THE REAL WORLD.
看看30年期收益率。整个收益率曲线，特别是前端，出现了一些缓解性的反弹。本周及整个秋季的故事是长期收益率创下数十年来最高水平。早些时候在《彭博监控》节目中，尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）谈到了更高利率如何影响现实世界。
I DON'T HEAR AS MUCH PUSHBACK ON INTEREST RATES. I HEAR FROM PEOPLE LOOKING TO BUY HOMES FOR SHOULD BUY SEVEN, 7.5% MORTGAGES. IN THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, AND NOT HEARING AS MUCH ABOUT INTEREST RATES. I'M HEARING ABOUT INFLATION BROADLY. PEOPLE SAYING, MY GOSH, I CAN'T KEEP UP. SMALL BUSINESSMEN OVER THE WEEKEND, HE LOST HIS BUSINESS BECAUSE HE COULDN'T KEEP UP WITH INFLATION. HE CAME UP TO ME AND SAID, "WHEN ARE YOU GUYS GOING TO GET INFLATION BACK DOWN?"
我听到的关于利率的反对意见没那么多了。我听到人们谈论购房时应该接受7%或7.5%的抵押贷款。在企业界，我也没有听到太多关于利率的讨论。我听到的是关于广泛通胀的抱怨。人们说，天哪，我跟不上了。一位小企业主周末告诉我，他失去了生意，因为他跟不上通胀的步伐。他走到我跟前说：‘你们什么时候能把通胀降下来？’
EMILY: MIKE MCKEE JOINS US FOR MORE WITH A CHART IN HAND. MIKE? MICHAEL: WHEN YOU TALK TO NEEL KASHKARI AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE FED, THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN TO THE ECONOMY IF INTEREST RATES KEEP RISING BECAUSE THEY WILL HAVE A HAND IN THAT. ONE OF THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR THEM IS WHY OUR INTEREST RATES RISING. THERE IS CONCERN THAT INFLATION AND THE FED'S REACTION TO IT ARE PUSHING OPERATES. -- PUSHING UP RATES.
艾米丽：迈克·麦基手持图表加入我们，带来更多精彩内容。迈克？迈克尔：当你与美联储的尼尔·卡什卡里及其他成员交谈时，他们担心如果利率持续上升，经济可能会发生什么，因为他们对此负有责任。对他们来说最大的问题之一是为什么我们的利率在上升。人们担心通胀以及美联储对此的反应正在推高利率。
BUT YOU DON'T SEE THAT WHEN YOU START DECOMPOSING WHAT IS GOING ON. MAYBE PEOPLE ARE BELIEVING IN THE IDEA OF THE FED ATTACKING INFLATION. THERE IS CREDIBILITY THERE. IT IS NOT SO MUCH THE FACT THAT INFLATION IS A WORRY FOR THAT OIL PRICES ARE PUSHING UP. IT IS REAL YIELDS THAT ARE MOVING. THE TRUCK I BROUGHT SHOWS US THAT THE MOVE IN THE 10-YEAR, PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE CURVE, HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER AND HAS BEEN PUSHED UP BY REAL YIELDS.
但当你开始分解正在发生的事情时，你并没有看到这一点。也许人们相信美联储打击通胀的理念。这里存在可信度。与其说是通胀令人担忧导致油价上涨，不如说是实际收益率在变动。我带来的图表显示，10年期国债收益率几乎在整个收益率曲线上的变动自9月初以来已经发生，并且是由实际收益率推动上涨的。
YOU CAN SEE THE REAL YIELD JUMPING IN WHITE. WHAT THAT IS SELLING IS THERE IS A LOT MORE COMPETITION FOR CREDIT--WHAT THAT IS TELLING YOU IS THAT THERE IS A LOT MORE COMPETITION FOR CREDIT. PEOPLE ARE BORROWING EVEN WITH INTEREST RATES HIGH. THAT MAYBE GIVES THE FEDERAL LITTLE MORE LEEWAY TO RAISE RATES BECAUSE RATES ARE RISING FOR A REASON THAT DOESN'T HAVE TO DO WITH THE LOSS OF FED CREDIBILITY. IT HAS TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT THE ECONOMY HAS GOTTEN STRONGER AND PUSHING REAL RATES HIGHER.
你可以看到白色部分显示的实际收益率跳跃。这表明信贷竞争更加激烈——这告诉你的是信贷竞争非常激烈。即使在利率高企的情况下，人们仍在借款。这可能给美联储提高利率提供了更多的余地，因为利率上升的原因并非失去美联储的可信度，而是因为经济变得更强壮，从而推高了实际利率。
EMILY: WHAT DOES IT TELL US ABOUT DIRECTIONALLY WHERE ARE RATES GOING NEXT? IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THERE IS A LID ON THIS MOVE HIGHER. MICHAEL: WHICH IS WHAT NEEL KASHKARI SAID COME WE DON'T KNOW HOW HIGH RATES ARE GOING TO HAVE TO GO. HE SAID WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN BORROWING, PARTICULARLY IN THE AI SPACE, AND WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE ECONOMY, AT RATES THAT WE HAVE, IT MAY BE TELLING YOU THAT THE FED HAS NOT HAD ANY BREAK ON THE ECONOMY AT ALL.
艾米丽：这在方向上告诉我们，利率下一步将走向何方？似乎这个上行趋势没有上限。迈克尔：这正是尼尔·卡什卡里所说的，我们不知道利率最终会涨到多高。他说，当你观察借贷情况，特别是人工智能领域的借贷，以及经济的现状时，以目前的利率水平来看，这可能表明美联储根本没有让经济降温。
THEY NEED TO GO HIGHER THAN THAT. THERE IS GOING TO BE MORE DATA OUT IN THE COMING WEEKS THAT WILL BE MORE DEFINITIVE FOR THEM AND TERMS OF WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO DO IN A COVER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATE CYCLE IS JUST BEGINNING. EMILY: MIKE, WE HAVE A BIG ECONOMIC DATA REPORT TOMORROW. GIVE US A BRIEF HEADS-UP FOR WHAT YOU ARE PAYING ATTENTION TO. MICHAEL: THE FED LOOKS AT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FIRST IF THEY WANT TO SEE IF THE ECONOMY IS FALLING APART, WHICH IF YOU LOOK AT JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY, IT IS TELLING YOU IT IS NOT.
他们需要比那更高的利率。未来几周将公布更多数据，这些数据将对他们在会议期间采取的行动更具决定性。看起来利率周期才刚刚开始。艾米丽：迈克，明天我们将有一份重要的经济数据报告发布。请简要提示一下你关注的内容。迈克尔：美联储首先查看失业率，以判断经济是否正在崩溃。如果你看看今天的失业救济申请数据，它告诉你情况并非如此。
THEY ARE STILL VERY, VERY LOW, AND HIRING IS HANGING IN THERE. THEY WANT TO KNOW IF THE DEMAND FOR LABOR IS PUSHING UP COSTS, AND THE RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST IS WE WILL NOT SEE A CHANGE IN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, 3.1% ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS CAN WHICH IS JUST ABOUT EVEN WITH THE INFLATION RATE. IT MAY BE THAT WE END UP WITH ANOTHER EMPLOYMENT REPORT THAT GETS FILED AWAY, AND IMMEDIATELY THE FED IN THE MARKETS TURN THEIR ATTENTION TO CPI AND PPI IN THE FOLLOWING WEEKS.
它们仍然非常、非常低，招聘也在持续。他们想知道劳动力需求是否在推高成本，而目前的预测是，我们不会看到平均小时收入的变化，同比3.1%的增长率大致与通胀率持平。最终我们可能会得到另一份被归档的就业报告，随后美联储和市场立即将注意力转向接下来几周的CPI和PPI。
EMILY: WELL, YOU WILL BE THERE FOR THE PAYROLLS REPORT. I THINK WE WILL SEE YOU LATER ON THE SHOW, TO PUT FOR NOW, THANKS TO MIKE MCKEE. STEPHEN BLISS TELLS BLOOMBERG THAT THE KEY U.S. YIELD WOULD RISE TO 8% IN THE COMING YEARS. HE SAID, "WE HAVE BEEN HERE BEFORE, AND IT DOES NOT END UNTIL THE POLITICAL WILL IS THERE TO FAVOR CUTTING INFLATION REGARDLESS OF THE IMPACT ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE AN 8% 10-YEAR, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ZIGS AND ZAGS ALONG THE WAY."
艾米丽：好吧，你会去报道非农就业数据报告。我想我们稍后会在节目中再次见到你，先说到这里，感谢迈克·麦基。斯蒂芬·布利斯告诉彭博社，美国关键收益率在未来几年将升至8%。他说：“我们以前经历过这种情况，而且只要政治意愿存在以不惜影响经济活动来抑制通胀，情况就不会结束。最终我们会看到10年期国债收益率达到8%，但一路上会有很多起伏。”
LET'S DIG INTO THIS WITH OUR ROUNDTABLE. GREAT TO SEE YOU BOTH. WE ARE GOING TO START RIGHT THERE. I WILL START WITH YOU -- 8%, ARE WE THERE? IS THAT HAPPENING?
让我们通过圆桌讨论深入探讨这一点。很高兴见到你们两位。我们就从这里开始。我先问你——8%，我们到了吗？这会发生吗？
THE ARTICLE IS FED IS GOING TO BE HIKING RATES AND THEY ARE GOING UP IN THE FRONT END. IT IS NOT A SURPRISE TO US ECONOMIC PICTURE. IT IS NOT SHOCKING. 8% IS VERY FAR AWAY. YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A REGIME CHANGE, DIFFERENT REGIME AT THE FED, DIFFERENT REGIME AT THE TREASURY . WE HAVE AN AI BUILD OUT THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NEVER SEEN BEFORE. KEEP AN OPEN MIND. THERE IS NO HARD NUMBER. 6% IS INSIGHT.
文章指出美联储将加息，且短端利率会上行。这对我们来说并不意外，也不令人震惊。8%还非常遥远。你需要理解，我们正处于体制变革之中，美联储处于不同的体制，财政部也处于不同的体制。我们正在经历前所未有的AI建设浪潮。保持开放的心态。没有确切的数字。6%才是洞察。
COULD WE GO HIGHER? YES, WE CAN.
我们会更高吗？是的，我们可以。
I THINK THAT IS HIGH. I THINK WE ARE CLOSE TO THE PEAK OF THE 10-YEAR. AT THIS POINT IT IS A MATTER OF OIL AND THE DIRECTION OF THE IRAN WAR. COM HAS SAID AFTER THE MIDTERMS HE IS LIKELY TO SEE SOME -- TRUMP HAS SAID THAT AFTER THE MIDTERMS HE IS LIKELY TO SEE SOME DIPLOMACY WITH IRAN. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN YOU WILL SEE RATES DRIFT HIGHER. ONCE YOU GET TO THAT POINT, YOU ARE LIKELY TO SEE RATES DOWN SLIGHTLY BELOW 5%.
我认为那已经很高了。我认为我们已接近10年期国债收益率的峰值。目前而言，这取决于石油以及伊朗战争的走向。COM表示，在中期选举之后，他可能会看到一些——特朗普也表示，在中期选举之后，他可能会看到与伊朗的外交接触。从现在到那时，你会看到利率进一步走高。一旦到达那个阶段，你很可能会看到利率小幅回落至5%以下。
EMILY: DOES THAT DEPEND ON THE FED NEEDING TO CUT THREE MORE TIMES IN THE NEAR FUTURE? STEPHANIE: NO, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MOVE IN RATES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR, WE FOUND THAT ABOUT HALF OF THE MOVES SINCE JULY HAS BEEN ENTERED. TWO DEBT HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED -- HALF OF THE MOVES SINCE JULY HAVE BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO OIL. WE ARE TALKING BUT PERHAPS ONE TO TWO MORE HIKES AND THEN HE COULD STILL END UP WITH THE 10-YEAR BELOW 5%.
艾米丽：这是否取决于美联储在不久的将来需要再降息三次？斯蒂芬妮：不，当你观察迄今为止看到的利率变动时，我们发现自7月以来大约一半的变动已被计入。其中一半的变动归因于石油。我们在谈论可能还有两到三次加息，然后10年期国债收益率仍可能低于5%。
EMILY: GUNEET, WHAT IS YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS DRIVING THE GREAT MOVE? THERE WAS A STORY ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL THAT HAD 10 DIFFERENT REASONS ON WHAT COULD BE DRIVING MOVE. GUNEET: THE MAIN REASON RATES ARE HIGHER IS IT IS A CATCH UP TO WHERE THE GROWTH STORY HAS BEEN. IF INFLATION IS THE BIG ISSUE, YOU WOULD SEE MORE CURVE FLATTENING. IT HAS BEEN MORE LIKE A PARALLEL MOVE ACROSS THE CURVE. IT IS ACTUALLY FASCINATING, PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE $40 TRILLION DEBT NUMBER.
艾米丽：古尼特，你对推动美债大幅上涨的主要动力有何理解？彭博终端曾有一篇报道列出了10种可能驱动美债上涨的原因。古尼特：利率上升的主要原因是市场在追赶此前增长故事所反映的水平。如果通胀是主要问题，你会看到收益率曲线更多呈现平坦化。但实际情况更像是整条曲线的平行上移。这其实很有趣，人们常提到40万亿美元的债务规模。
YOU TALK ABOUT INVESTORS AND CLIENTS, NOT MANY PEOPLE BRING UP THE FISCAL STORY. WHAT IS THE NEXT LEG IF RATES ARE TO GO HIGHER? ONE POTENTIAL CATALYST IS PEOPLE FOCUS ON THAT STORY GOING FORWARD AND THERE IS BIG REASONS FOR THAT. AS THE FED HIKES, THE INTEREST BURDEN FOR THE U.S. TREASURY GOES UP MEANINGFULLY, ESPECIALLY IN A WORLD WHERE THERE
你谈到投资者和客户，但很少有人提及财政状况的故事。如果利率继续上行，下一阶段的驱动力是什么？一个潜在的催化剂是，人们未来将更多地关注这一财政叙事，而这有其重要理由。随着美联储加息，美国国债的利息负担显著上升，尤其是在当前全球环境下……
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