美债收益率触及2002年以来新高，市场看跌原因解析
US Benchmark Yield Hits Highest Since 2002
直击美债收益率破位的关键宏观变量（日资流出、经济韧性、赤字刚性），为固定收益投资者提供清晰的逻辑框架以应对波动。建议关注长端利率走势及后续数据验证。
This 532 level that you just mentioned, Scarlett is actually a reasonably key, uh, level for the ten year yield. Uh, right now, that is an old, uh, technical level, like the old yield high from, you know, like two decades ago, basically. So you break above that and you're looking at 5.5% pretty easily. Um, it's unclear to me what actually stops this, uh, this climb in yields. It's like, no, no one really wants a jump in at the moment and, uh, catch a falling knife.
你刚才提到的532这个水平，Scarlett，对于十年期收益率来说实际上是一个相当关键的点位。嗯，目前来看，这是一个旧的技术性水平，类似于大约二十年前的旧收益率高点。所以一旦突破这个水平，很容易看到5.5%。对我来说，不清楚到底是什么会阻止收益率的攀升。感觉现在没人真的想介入，也不想去接飞刀。
You know, there's some people who I've been speaking with that definitely think that yields are a little bit overstretched and that they're you know, there's going to be interesting buying opportunities. But again they don't want to step in right now right. People have had a bad year. Um, you know, you look at just the month of September, the Bloomberg Treasury index was down almost 2.5%. You know, it's hard to like the market when you're in a bear market that we are in, uh, in treasuries right now.
你知道，我最近和一些人的交谈中，他们确实认为收益率有点过度拉伸，而且会出现有趣的买入机会。但同样，他们不想现在就介入。人们经历了一个糟糕的年份。你看仅仅九月份，彭博国债指数就下跌了近2.5%。在我们目前所处的国债熊市环境中，很难说市场会喜欢什么。
So, uh, eventually it will be time to buy. But until you start to see a turn in the data, I don't see really what stops, uh, what stops the market at least selling off incrementally from here. How much of this is technical? It. It feels to me like a lot, because I'm thinking about what fundamentally has changed in the last 4 or 5, six weeks. We've always had deficits. Governments have always been borrowing. I mean, all right, so I got some tech guys in there, you know, selling some bonds.
所以，最终会有买入的时候。但在数据出现拐点之前，我不清楚是什么能阻止市场至少从这里开始逐步抛售。这在多大程度上是技术性的？我觉得很大程度上是技术性的，因为我在思考过去四到六周基本面发生了什么变化。我们一直存在赤字，政府一直在借款。我的意思是，好吧，所以我有一些科技界的朋友在那里卖出一些债券。
Big deal. How much of this is technical? Well, so part of it is technical. And it's not only the, the it's not only the US. We have to keep in mind like some of these, um, some of the angst really has, has been generated from overseas. Right. So things like what's going on in France, you look at French yields and French spreads that matters. Um, Japan is a huge one and I think really underappreciated by most people in the US because a lot of the sell off really started in July with the Japanese market.
这没什么大不了的。这在多大程度上是技术性的？嗯，部分原因是技术性的。而且不仅限于美国。我们必须记住，一些焦虑情绪实际上是由海外产生的。没错。比如法国发生的事情，看看法国的收益率和信用利差，这很重要。日本也是一个巨大的因素，我认为被大多数美国人严重低估了，因为很多抛售实际上始于七月，当时是日本市场。
Um, and the US market started to catch up when, you know, the Federal Reserve got pretty hawkish after the, uh, the July FOMC meeting. So, you know, we're concentrating kind of on the last month. But you know, this whole selloff really, really started getting going in uh, in late July, early August and, um, and it just will continue. And a lot of this is based on fundamentals, right? There were a lot of people who were saying, oh, you know, I can't drive growth.
嗯，当美联储在七月FOMC会议后变得相当鹰派时，美国市场开始跟进。所以我们主要关注的是上个月。但你知道，这次整个抛售潮实际上从七月下旬、八月初就开始加速了，并且它将继续下去。其中很大一部分是基于基本面的，对吧？很多人都在说，哦，你知道，我无法推动增长。
And we have this k shaped economy. So, um, higher inflation will be bad for spending on non energy related goods. But that just hasn't shown up. You look at the personal spending data from that we got yesterday for for August. And it was stellar 0.9%. That's really good. Now incomes are slowing down right. So the the question I think that people are asking is how long can we have this type of, you know, economic growth on the consumption side with wages starting to slow down somewhat?
我们呈现出这种 K 型经济。因此，较高的通胀将对非能源相关商品的支出产生不利影响。但这尚未显现。你看昨天公布的 8 月个人支出数据。表现非常出色，达到 0.9%。这确实很好。现在收入正在放缓。所以我认为人们问的问题是，随着工资开始有所放缓，消费侧的这种经济增长能持续多久？
And, um, the answer is it can't last forever, but it can last longer than you think. And I think that that's that realization came upon many investors and we've had to reprice because of that. Um, then again, we also, you know, we are seeing a reduction in risk basically across the board. You look at futures, you look at just about everything. And and people are reducing their their exposure to the rates markets not only here but everywhere in the world.
答案是它不可能永远持续下去，但可能比你想象的更久。我认为许多投资者意识到了这一点，因此我们不得不重新定价。此外，我们看到风险基本全面降低。你看期货市场，几乎看任何东西。人们不仅在本地，而且在全世界范围内都在减少对利率市场的敞口。
So the other thing, of course, that we need to keep in mind is the white House and government pressure. The white House wants lower borrowing costs. Treasury Secretary Scott has been definitely, um, a presence. Um, how much of a shaping force is Treasury's interventions to the curve, especially the long end? Uh, zero. Uh, you know, the the Secretary of the Treasury might want to get yields down, but the best way to get yields down is to basically issue less debt.
当然，我们需要记住的另一件事是白宫和政府的压力。白宫希望降低借贷成本。财政部长斯科特肯定一直备受关注。财政部对收益率曲线的干预，尤其是长期端，有多大影响力？零。你知道，财政部长可能希望压低收益率，但压低收益率的最佳方法基本上是减少发债。
And the government can't do that because it's not up to Scott Benson or even President Trump. Um, it's really up to Congress to get that, uh, that in order. And, um, and they haven't. Right. There's just not a lot of appetite to really cut, um, consumption, cut government spending and a lot of government spending and a lot of government spending growth is, yes, a little bit from defense for sure. Right. Especially with what's going on in the Middle East.
政府做不到这一点，因为这并不取决于斯科特·本森（Scott Benson）甚至特朗普总统。真正需要国会来理顺这一局面。但他们没有做到。没错。目前并没有太多意愿去真正削减消费、削减政府支出，而大量政府支出的增长，是的，有一部分确实来自国防开支。没错。特别是考虑到中东的局势。
Right. But a lot of it's just, uh, Social Security and Medicare.
没错。但很大一部分仅仅是社会保障和医疗保险。
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