美30年期房贷利率重回7%以上，国债收益率创2002年以来新高
High mortgage rates compound housing affordability challenges
房贷利率与国债收益率是宏观资产定价的核心锚点，当前数据已实质性改变居民借贷成本与房地产供需预期，建议密切关注其对美股估值及债市流动性的后续传导。
AMNA: THE AVERAGE RATE ON A 30-YEAR MORTGAGE IS BACK ABOVE 7% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TWENTY MONTHS. IT'S ROUGH NEWS FOR THE HOUSING MARKET AND HOMEBUYERS ALREADY STRUGGLING WITH RISING PRICES ELSEWHERE. IT COMES AS TREASURY YIELDS -- WHICH IMPACT BORROWING COSTS ACROSS THE ECONOMY -- HIT MULTI-DECADE HIGHS AND AFTER INFLATION FEARS FORCED THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO HIKE INTEREST RATES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN THREE YEARS.
AMNA：30年期抵押贷款的平均利率首次回升至7%以上，这是20个月以来的首次。这对房地产市场和已经在其他方面因房价上涨而苦苦挣扎的购房者来说是个坏消息。此举发生在美债收益率——影响整个经济借贷成本——触及多年高位之后，此前通胀担忧迫使美联储在三年多来首次加息。
TO HELP US UNDERSTAND WHAT IT ALL MEANS, WE'RE JOINED AGAIN BY DAVID WESSELL, DIRECTOR OF THE HUTCHINS CENTER ON FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION. BEFORE WE TURN TO THE BOND MARKET, THE AVERAGE 30 YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE SITS AT 7.03%. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR HOMEBUYERS AND THE HOUSING MARKET? DAVID: ACTUALLY TODAY ACCORDING TO BANK RATE, IT IS UP TO 7.2%. A YEAR AGO IT WAS 6.3%. ON A MORTGAGE OF 250 THOUSAND DOLLARS, THAT'S AN EXTRA $1800 A YEAR IN PAYMENTS.
为了帮助我们理解这一切意味着什么，我们再次连线布鲁金斯学会财政与货币政策哈钦斯中心（Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy）主任大卫·韦塞尔（David Wessel）。在我们转向债券市场之前，30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率为7.03%。这对购房者和房地产市场意味着什么？大卫：实际上，根据Bank Rate的数据，今天它已升至7.2%。一年前是6.3%。对于25万美元的抵押贷款，这意味着每年要多支付1800美元。
IT'S LIKE HAVING A 13 MONTH OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS. SO IT'S A BIG DEAL. WHAT IT MEANS IS THAT A, HOUSES WILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE SO MANY PEOPLE WILL BE PRICED OUT OF THE MARKET. YOU NEED MORE INCOME TO SUPPORT THAT. SECONDLY, AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS FROM A NUMBER OF BIG HOMEBUILDERS, THEY ARE ANTICIPATING LESS DEMAND SO THEY ARE GOING TO BUILD FEWER HOUSES WHICH OF COURSE IS NOT WHAT WE NEED AT A TIME WHEN WE KNOW WE NEED MORE HOUSES.
这相当于多出13个月的房贷还款。所以这是一件大事。这意味着第一，房屋将变得更昂贵，许多人将被挤出市场。你需要更高的收入来支撑这笔支出。第二，正如我们从多家大型建筑商那里看到的那样，他们预期需求减少，因此将减少建房数量，而这当然不是我们此时所需要的，因为我们知道我们需要更多的住房。
AMNA: LET ME ASK ABOUT THE BOND MARKET. HELP VIEWERS UNDERSTAND WHAT EXACTLY IS THE BOND MARKET, WHAT DOES IT MATTER AND WHY SO MUCH ANXIETY AROUND IT IN RECENT MONTHS? DAVID: WHEN WE TALK ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES, WHY DO MORTGAGE RATES MOVE? THEY MOVE BECAUSE THEY ARE PEGGED TO WHAT HAPPENS IN THE BOND MARKET. THE BOND MARKET IS A BIG FINANCIAL MARKET. THERE ARE $32 TRILLION WORTH OF U.S. TREASURY DATA THE BOND MARKET. THAT'S ABOUT THE SAME SIZE AS ALL THE STOCKS ON THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE.
AMNA：让我问一下关于债券市场的问题。帮助观众理解债券市场到底是什么，它为什么重要，以及为什么最近几个月人们对它如此焦虑？大卫：当我们谈论抵押贷款利率时，为什么抵押贷款利率会变动？它们之所以变动是因为它们与债券市场的走势挂钩。债券市场是一个庞大的金融市场。美国国债在债券市场上的价值约为32万亿美元。这与纽约证券交易所所有股票的总市值大致相当。
IF YOU ADD IN CORPORATE BORROWING OR STATE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, ANOTHER $16 TRILLION. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT PEOPLE ARE BUYING AND SELLING TREASURY BONDS, THEY ARE DRIVING UP THE YIELD BECAUSE THERE'S SO MUCH MORE BORROWING IN THE ECONOMY. UNLIKE THE STOCK MARKET WHICH MATTERS IF YOU OWN STOCK, THE BOND MARKET YIELDS AFFECT OUR BORROWING RATES, NOT ONLY MORTGAGES BUT AFFECTS WHAT YOU PAY FOR AN AUTO LOAN AND IT AFFECTS WITH THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO PAY TO BORROW, AND THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IN PARTICULAR BORROWS A LOT OF MONEY.
如果加上企业借款或州地方政府债务，还有另外16万亿美元。这意味着人们正在买卖国债，由于经济中借贷量大幅增加，收益率被推高。与如果你持有股票才相关的股票市场不同，债券市场收益率会影响我们的借贷利率，不仅是抵押贷款，还会影响你为汽车贷款支付的利息，并影响政府借贷的成本，尤其是联邦政府借入了大量资金。
WHEN RATES GO UP, THE TREASURY HAS TO PAY MORE TO BORROW AND EVENTUALLY THAT WIDENS THE DEFICIT AND MEANS HIGHER TAXES. AMNA: THE YIELDS ON TENURE-TRACK REBOUNDS HIT 5.2% TODAY. THE HIGHEST WE'VE SEEN SINCE JANUARY OF 2002. YOU MENTIONED BORROWING. IS THAT THE SOLE DRIVER BEHIND THE RISING RATES? DAVID: THERE IS A SUPPLY AND DEMAND THING. THE SUPPLY OF BORROWING IS HOW MUCH MONEY THE TREASURY BORROWS IN THE DEMAND IS HOW MUCH INVESTORS ARE WILLING TO PAY FOR IT.
当利率上升时，财政部必须支付更高的借款成本，最终这会扩大赤字并意味着更高的税收。阿曼娜：十年期国债收益率今日反弹至5.2%，为自2002年1月以来所见最高水平。你提到了借贷，这是利率上升的唯一驱动因素吗？大卫：存在供需问题。供给方面是财政部借入的资金量，需求方面是投资者愿意为此支付的价格。
WHAT HAPPENED IS THE TREASURY IS BORROWING MORE AND MORE BECAUSE WE ARE RUNNING BIG DEFICITS NOW THERE'S A NEW PLAYER. ALL THESE HYPER SCALARS ARE BORRO
发生的情况是，由于我们现在面临巨额赤字，财政部正在越来越多地借款，出现了一个新玩家。所有这些超大规模机构都在借入资金
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力