美债收益率突破5.25%或成市场拐点
Why 5.25% is the Bond Market’s Tipping Point
As you might already know, bond markets are having a tough time at the moment. Across the world, yields on government debt, which essentially tell you the annual interest rates that states have to offer in order to borrow money, have surged, driven by a sell-off that seems to have originated in the US. Investors have been offered some restbite by the stock market, which has continued to tick up, helping to keep the wider US economy afloat.
正如你可能已经知道的，债券市场目前正面临困境。在全球范围内，政府债务的收益率——这本质上反映了各国为借入资金必须提供的年利率——因似乎起源于美国的抛售潮而飙升。股市的持续上涨为投资者提供了一些喘息之机，有助于支撑更广泛的美国经济。
However, history suggests that we might be nearing an inflection point, at which point ructions on the bond market risk spilling out into the wider economy. So, in this video, we're going to explain the relationship between the stock and bond markets, and why history suggests that we're in for some trouble once the yield on 10-year treasuries goes above 5.25%. [music] We believe that for news to be trustworthy, it must be produced free from the influence of those we cover or who fund us.
然而，历史表明我们可能正接近一个拐点，届时债券市场的动荡风险可能溢出到更广泛的经济中。因此，在本视频中，我们将解释股市与债市之间的关系，以及为什么历史表明，一旦10年期国债收益率超过5.25%，我们就将面临一些麻烦。[音乐] 我们认为，新闻若要值得信赖，就必须不受我们所报道的对象或资助者的影响。
That's why we have a strict funding policy that keeps sponsors at arms length. Find out more about what we believe in our official manifesto. It's linked in the description of every one of our videos. So perhaps the first thing you need to understand is that when bond yields are going up, that means that the actual value of the bond is going down. To illustrate this point, imagine that you buy a $1,000 bond off the US Treasury with a 10-year maturity, meaning that you'll be paid back in full after 10 years and an annual yield of 5%.
这就是为什么我们制定了严格的资金政策，使赞助商保持距离。了解更多关于我们信念的内容，请参阅我们的官方宣言。它链接在我们每个视频的描述中。所以，也许你需要理解的第一件事是，当债券收益率上升时，意味着债券的实际价值正在下降。为了说明这一点，想象你从美国财政部购买一张面值为1,000美元、期限为10年的债券，这意味着10年后你将全额收回本金，并获得5%的年收益率。
Meaning that you'll get $50 in interest each year. If you can sell it on for $1,000, its yield stays the same. But if you can only sell it for say $900, whoever bought that bond would effectively get a higher yield. After all, $50 is more than 5% of $900. It's more like 5.5%. And after 10 years, the new bond holder would get an extra $100 because the Treasury would still pay back the full $1,000 face value. But this new bond holder only bought the bond for 900.
这意味着你每年将获得50美元的利息。如果你能以1,000美元的价格转售它，其收益率保持不变。但如果你只能以900美元的价格出售，那么购买该债券的人实际上将获得更高的收益率。毕竟，50美元超过了900美元的5%，更像是5.5%。10年后，新债券持有人将额外获得100美元，因为财政部仍会偿还1,000美元的票面价值。但这位新债券持有人仅以900美元购买了该债券。
You get the idea. When bond yields are going up, as they are at the moment, it means that the actual value of the bond is going down. Anyway, in normal terms, there's generally an inverse relationship between how well the stock market is doing and how well the bond market is doing. In other words, when stocks go up, bonds usually go down. And when stocks go down, bonds usually go up. So, what explains this relationship?
你明白了。当债券收益率上升时（就像目前的情况），意味着债券的实际价值正在下降。总之，在正常情况下，股市的表现与债市的表现之间通常存在反向关系。换句话说，当股票上涨时，债券通常下跌；而当股票下跌时，债券通常上涨。那么，是什么解释了这种关系？
Well, it's a bit more complicated than this, but perhaps the main reason is that stocks and bonds are the two main options for anyone looking to invest their cash. This means that when one goes down, investors tend to rotate into the other. To give a slightly more concrete example, if you're worried that the AI bubble is going to pop, you might take your money out of stocks which are dominated by tech companies with heavy AI exposure and put them into US government bonds which currently offer a pretty safe nominal return of about 5% a year.
嗯，情况比这稍微复杂一些，但主要原因可能是股票和债券是任何希望投资现金的人的两大主要选择。这意味着当其中一种资产下跌时，投资者往往会转向另一种。举一个更具体的例子，如果你担心人工智能泡沫即将破裂，你可能会将资金从由大量涉足人工智能的科技股主导的股票市场中撤出，转而投入美国国债，目前美国国债能提供大约每年5%的相当安全的名义回报。
Conversely, if you're worried about the US government defaulting, or more likely
相反，如果你担心美国政府违约，或者更有可能的是
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力