固定收益市场动荡：美债收益率飙升引发通胀担忧与央行干预预期

I think it's pretty clear that the epicenter of what has been happening over the last couple of weeks, couple of months, really has been the fixed income market. And, uh, like, we, um, we merged, uh, expanded data with the vendor earlier this year, right, to get the, the equity coverage as a part of what we offer and even the equity space. Like all the questions, uh, fixed income related. Now, like, uh, when is this dramatic rise going to stop?

Right? When is equity is going to be okay again? So I think that epicenter is very clear. Do you need dollar to break is a change agent. Do you need to see do I go 199 94. And I you know does it need to finally break. So I think when this kind of really interesting environment right, where currency markets haven't really moved that much except the Korean one that has been on this crazy I and maybe not crazy, uh, understandable eye, uh, trend.

But I think what we're looking to in currency markets is we're going to get to a point where the fixed income markets are going to, uh, be at a kind of breaking point where we're going to have to have some kind of intervention. Right? We can have 30 year yields continuing to go up, you know, every few months. 50 basis point is not going to be sustainable. And we've seen it already in the US right. Scott Benson came in and said we're going to try to stabilize with the buybacks.

Now you discussed it early this morning right. Hasn't really had a huge impact so far. Right. But eventually we'll have to have some type of backstop from central bank balance sheets or other balance sheet to stop it. And that will be when the currencies react. Right. Because that's when the market, you see, okay, there's a liquidity that's coming in to stop the yields rising and that's going to then move into the currencies.

We're not there yet, but I think this year is a transition year where we'll get to that point. And just looking at your notes here and as you talk about the the long and moving higher, you talk about a corporate bond deal that may be impacting the Paramount's in the market was $52 billion worth of investment grade high yield bank loan, Lot of paper come into the market, but I've never heard or seen anybody discussing whether a corporate bond deal could impact the broader Treasury market.

No, I think it's it's when the markets are so on edge, as we're seeing right now, like the catalyst kind of broadens out. And even smaller things can actually kind of destabilise the markets. So, uh, obviously there's a lot of focus on the hyperscale issuance. Right, which is now starting to compete in the long end, uh, with the US Treasury market as being like like an equally important issue from the US Treasury. Right.

It's something that a couple of years ago you said that under that we when we do the projections into 2007, it looks like the issuance above ten year, because the data centers are very long term financing projects, it could be of roughly the same magnitude as the Treasury is. Yeah. If I come here and set this a couple of years ago, you probably kicked me out of the studio saying, okay, what what are you smoking? So but this bond selloff.

It's been a global issue. It's not just the US. So what is that telling you. Yeah. So what we've seen it over the last couple of years right. That global bond markets are so tied to the US that it's quite hard to see any decoupling. Uh, but I do think if you look at the curve shapes, you can see like the most extreme extreme example is Switzerland, right? Where they have no, that you don't have curve steepening there.

So there is some differences. And I would also say if you look at this week right. And even today like which curves are steepening, the US curve is still steepening to today. The French curve is still steepening today. So um, that does seem to be a trend where okay, global bond yields are correlated. Right. But the slope of the curve is more problematically steep in the places where the debt issues are the most severe.

Yeah. Norvig, with us, we're going to continue with them coming up. Uh, Lisa Abramowicz, Ken Griffin on his, uh, very important day for Pittsburgh's Carnegie Mellon as they look to Miami. I'll give you a treatment on there in a moment. We are advantage to have guns north with us. With these headlines, let me go through these bombshell headlines. BMW of Germany targets shedding a fifth of managers for a BMW targets 3 to 5%.

Auto making return on sales two years out. BMW expects management cuts to be completed by summer of next year. BMW management job cuts are part of an eye buyout, whatever that means. BMW to add more high end models above the X7. BMW to reduce variance to discontinue some, uh, models. I look at this again and it just speaks of the impact of China. I mean, it just screams for Volkswagen, BMW for Ford a Jim, your thoughts on how China is pricing their goods.

Yeah, absolutely. Like we a couple of decades ago, there was this concern that Japan was going to take over. Right. And, uh, the Japanese automakers were gaining market share from everybody, including the US ones. And now we look at what's happening in China. Right. And the speed at which China is taking market share globally is so much faster than what Japan ever did. And obviously, uh, the headlines you're reading out, right, the reflection of that, like German car producers, uh, just really pressured number one, because they don't sell cars in China almost at all anymore.

And number two, because they also getting threatened at home just from the EVs. Yeah. So, uh, this is a very challenging situation for Germany. Like, the only office that they have really is that some of that production capacity is moving to military production, uh, because Germany is ramping up their defense spending. That's the only offset. But we also have the much higher natural gas prices. So the challenges, uh, are multifold.