市场分析师：美国国债收益率结构性走高，美元受资本流入支撑

This bond markets move is extraordinary. How much further does it go? People are actively talking about 6% on a US ten year. I'm really struggling in the short term. So I think structurally the story of much higher yields is, as you know, we've discussed a lot over the last year. So I've always believed in and I believe 6% absolutely possible. I am very confused by the the acceleration higher in yields in the last couple of weeks.

Bear in mind oil prices aren't higher than they were a few weeks ago, and it really seems that, you know that the PMI trigger was just really massive, but it seems to have been a stop out of funds as a result of struggling with the short term price action. Uh, and kind of very confused, if anything, you know, as you know, I thought we'd actually see a tactical treasuries rally into midterms. And in fact, we've seen quite the opposite.

I'm struggling to have high conviction on bond markets at the moment. I think that the longer term story is you've got to remember that these higher yields are just about growth month. They're just better inflation concerns. And as you've just outlined with France, but it's a global issue. We have a real lingering sticky inflation problem. So that's the structural story of higher yields. We're not even pricing in the fiscal concerns yet.

Now we are getting to the level of yields where those coupons start becoming quite rewarding. And there is some incentive to switch from equities at the margin. But at the moment that's not really making any impact. Mhm. I mean we we do have a lot of expectations around central bank hikes don't we. Mark into the into the months ahead. And it is possible to expect too much I suppose. And is that what we saw reflected at the short end.

Even if many people expect there to be rate hikes from the fed and from other central banks. Uh, we might not get all that we're expecting. Uh, I don't see why anyone can push back about on the front end pricing until we see some material growth cracks or a market calamity. Uh, but the fact is, financial conditions still look loose. Monetary conditions still look loose. Inflation is very, very hot. Now, a lot of it is supply side driven, but growth is holding up.

So yes, ultimately not all these hikes make it delivered, but you can't fight them right now. Which is partially why I actually expected again I've got the curve wrong. The bond market wrong. Last week I expected the curve to start to flatten further because I thought fronton yields would see more pain, but I thought people were nibble at the long end. But in fact, it's the long end that's lost all anchoring. It's been a strong a strong month for the dollar.

Um, Mark does that. Does that continue to dollar strength continue. Um, how are you seeing the dynamics on FX playing out? Uh, I think the fundamentals for the dollar continue to improve. Uh, and as you know, I've been a dollar bull for the last few, last couple of months. Um, but, you know, look, ultimately the US is still going to attract flows while we're in the AI CapEx bubble. The Treasury market is now looking more appealing on a on a, you know, global competitive basis.

So I think the dollar will continue to attract inflows, particularly when we've got a fossil fuels crisis that is pressuring many countries in Asia and in Europe. The major alternatives. However, it's going to be slower momentum for me because it's going to be mainly against the euro.