跳到主内容
@wquguru
精选82Bloomberg Podcasts(YouTube)宏观多源精选 ×11

中美延长贸易休战至明年1月,加拿大总理提及美国入侵风险

US-China Truce, Carney Eyes US Invasion Risk, Fake Cigarettes Flood Europe | Bloomberg Daybreak:...

原文
发到 X
推荐理由

中美贸易休战延期直接改变双边关税与供应链预期,是宏观交易的核心变量;加拿大总理关于“美国入侵风险”的表态虽属政治修辞,但折射出地缘政治紧张局势升级,影响跨国资本配置与主权风险评估,值得投资从业者密切关注后续政策落地与外交博弈。

[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Daybreet podcast. Good morning. It's Thursday the 24th of September. I'm Caroline Heba in London. Coming up today, Trump and Xi extend their trade ceasefire as Bloomberg reporting raises fresh questions. Canada's Mark Carney concedes that he has been forced to consider the risk of a US invasion in an interview with the New York Times. Soaring petrol and diesel prices push European car drivers towards electric vehicles and less risky than cocaine.

[音乐] 彭博音频工作室播客、广播新闻。这是《彭博每日播报》播客。早上好,今天是9月24日星期四。我是卡罗琳·赫巴,在伦敦为您报道。今天即将带来:特朗普与习近平延长贸易休战期,随着彭博社的报道引发新的疑问;加拿大马克·卡尼在接受《纽约时报》采访时承认,他被迫考虑美国入侵的风险;飙升的汽油和柴油价格推动欧洲汽车驾驶员转向电动汽车,且风险低于可卡因。

Bloomberg's exclusive reporting on the gangs flooding Europe with fake cigarettes. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. The US and China have extended their trade truce for another two months as Xi Jinping begins his first US state visit in 11 years. President Trump personally greeted Xi at Joint Base Andrews, setting the stage for White House talks today. US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says that the extension buys more time to work towards a broader economic agreement.

彭博社独家报道黑帮向欧洲倾销假香烟的情况。让我们先回顾一下我们的头条新闻。随着习近平开始11年来首次对美国进行国事访问,中美两国将贸易休战期再延长两个月。特朗普总统在安德鲁斯联合基地亲自迎接习近平,为今天的白宫会谈铺平了道路。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森表示,这一延长期为我们争取了更多时间,以推动达成更广泛的经贸协议。

We have agreed today uh that we will extend what we call the Busousan agreement. the U economic day between the two countries uh that was scheduled to end on November 10th that is going to be extended until January 10th to give us more time to see what we can do on the economic front.

我们今天已同意,我们将延长所谓的《釜山协议》,即两国之间的经济休战期。该协议原定于11月10日结束,现在将延长至明年1月10日,以便我们有更多时间在经济领域看看能做些什么。

That was Scott Bessent there. The truth leaves major disputes unresolved though including on rare earths trade and the two countries race for dominance in artificial intelligence. Exclusive Bloomberg reporting is adding another point of tension though as the summit gets underway. Our team has learned that the Chinese government is holding potentially sensitive F-35 stealth aircraft parts. According to people briefed on the incident, the components were being shipped from Australia to the US when they were unexpectedly diverted to Hong Kong.

以上是斯科特·贝森的话。然而,许多重大争议仍未解决,包括稀土贸易问题以及两国在人工智能领域的霸权争夺。随着峰会拉开帷幕,彭博社的独家报道又增添了一个紧张点。据我们获悉,中国政府扣押了可能敏感的F-35隐形战斗机零部件。据知情人士透露,这些部件原本正从澳大利亚运往美国,但被意外改道至香港。

Bloomberg's national security reporter Tony Capacio uncovered the story. In the interest of good relations, China should have returned it. I know the US was pressing for them to get it. Back in late May when this happened, the JO they call the joint program office hoped they would get the parts back. And we fast forward to today. The Pentagon still trying to get them back.

彭博社国家安全记者托尼·卡皮奥揭发了这则故事。出于良好关系的考虑,中国本应将其归还。我知道美方一直在施压要求他们归还。早在五月事件发生时,被称为联合项目办公室的JPO就希望他们能收回这些零部件。时光快进到今天,五角大楼仍在努力追回这些零部件。

Tony Capacio there as Bloomberg has separately uncovered new evidence that Chinese source components are helping the Houthies build missiles and drones in Yemen. There's no evidence that Chinese companies involved knew that their products were ultimately destined for the Iranbacked group. However, the findings put sensitive military technology into sharper focus as Trump and Xi begin their discussions. The Trump administration has been ordered to temporarily restore White House access for journalists from CNN, MS Now, and Politico.

托尼·卡帕西奥在彭博社,彭博社已单独发现新证据,表明中国产零部件正在帮助胡塞武装在也门制造导弹和无人机。没有证据表明涉及的中国公司知道其产品最终流向这个由伊朗支持的组织。然而,随着特朗普和习近平开始讨论,这些发现使敏感军事技术成为更突出的焦点。特朗普政府已被命令暂时恢复CNN、MSNBC和Politico记者进入白宫的权限。

The outlets say that they were banned in retaliation for their coverage and are suing over what they call a quote direct assault on their First Amendment rights. The temporary order was issued by a Trumpappointed judge and will remain in place for 2 weeks. Canada's prime minister says that he has prepared for what he calls the quote extreme tale risk of US military action against his country. Mark Connie has told the New York Times a US invasion is not his base case, but he says that it would be irresponsible not to consider the risk after President Trump's repeated claims that Canada should become an American state.

这些媒体表示,它们因报道而遭到禁令,并正在就所谓的“对其第一修正案权利的直接攻击”提起诉讼。这项临时命令由特朗普任命的法官发布,将持续两周。加拿大总理表示,他已为美国对其国家采取军事行动的所谓“极端尾部风险”做好准备。马克·卡尼告诉《纽约时报》,美国入侵不是他的基准情景,但他表示,在特朗普总统多次声称加拿大应成为美国一个州之后,不考虑这种风险是不负责任的。

Now, the comments come as Mark Carney tries to reduce Canada's dependence on the US while building closer ties to Europe. Foreign Minister Anita Anan told Bloomberg that Canada now sees a bigger role for itself and other middle powers. ensuring that the vacuum that is left uh in the WTO or in geopolitical conflict environments is addressed by middle powers who want to work together for the interests of their domestic populations as well as or the global environment at large.

这些言论发表之际,马克·卡尼正试图减少加拿大对美国的依赖,同时与欧洲建立更紧密的联系。外交部长安妮塔·阿南告诉彭博社,加拿大现在认为自身和其他中等强国应发挥更大作用,确保世贸组织或地缘政治冲突环境中留下的真空由中等强国来填补,这些国家希望为了本国人民的利益以及全球环境而共同努力。

Anita Anan speaking to Bloomberg at the UN in New York. She says that Canada has signed more than 20 economic security and defense agreements across five continents over the past year. Now, an open AI model hacked an Australian ministry website earlier this year. Now, this marks one of the first known AI attacks on a government database. The model gained unauthorized access to files on a website for reporting healthcare statistics.

安妮塔·阿南在纽约联合国总部接受彭博社采访时表示,过去一年,加拿大已在五大洲签署了20多项经济安全和防务协议。现在,今年早些时候,一个开放人工智能模型入侵了澳大利亚一个部委的网站。这标志着已知的首批针对政府数据库的人工智能攻击之一。该模型未经授权访问了一个用于报告医疗保健统计数据的网站上的文件。

Australia Prime Minister Anthony Alanesi says that he has spoken to OpenAI's leadership about the incident.

澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯表示,他已就此事与OpenAI的领导层进行了交谈。

Today I spoke with the CEO of Open AI, Sam Alman, to express Australia's extreme concern about this incident. And I also expressed my disappointment that it took the company way too long to inform the government uh what had occurred and the the nature of the way that that notification occurred as well was unacceptable.

今天我与 Open AI 的首席执行官 Sam Alman 进行了交谈,以表达澳大利亚对此事件的极度关切。我还表达了失望之情,即该公司通知政府发生了什么以及通知的方式都花了太长时间,且这种通知方式也是不可接受的。

Australia's Anthony Albani there he added that there was no evidence that the personal information of Australian citizens was compromised. The government is now investigating whether any crimes were committed. This is the latest in a series though of high-profile incidents involving Open AI, including its models breaking into the resources of hugging face, aer website hosting AI data sets. That was in July, of course.

澳大利亚的 Anthony Albani 补充说,没有证据表明澳大利亚公民的个人信息遭到泄露。政府目前正在调查是否有犯罪行为发生。不过,这是涉及 Open AI 的一系列高调事件中的最新一起,包括其模型入侵了 Hugging Face 的资源,后者是一个托管 AI 数据集的网站。那是在七月,当然。

Well, despite continued concerns about AI safety, firms are still pressing ahead with developments to make the technology more user friendly. Now, Meta has unveiled a palmsiz gadget for using Muse. This is its popular uh new AI assistant. The product was revealed on stage by co Mark Zuckerberg in a surprise announcement yesterday because um that little handheld thing that I was working on, it's um it's actually real.

尽管人们对 AI 安全性的担忧持续存在,但各公司仍在推进发展,以使该技术更易于用户友好使用。现在,Meta 发布了一款用于 Muse 的手掌大小的小工具。这是它受欢迎的新型 AI 助手。该产品由联合创始人 Mark Zuckerberg 在昨天的意外宣布中登台展示,因为我一直在研究的那个小型手持设备,它实际上是真实的。

Um, we packed the whole Muse experience, including the whole real time voice and avatar stack into something that fits on a keychain and is always available to talk to you. You just uh go ahead and tap here in the fingerprint sensor in the corner and you can start talking without having to unlock a phone or open an app. So, the device that Zuckerberg was talking about is called the Muse Charm, and it allows users to customize a virtual character and interact with other devices.

嗯,我们将整个 Muse 体验,包括完整的实时语音和虚拟形象堆栈,打包进了一个可以挂在钥匙扣上并随时可供你交谈的设备中。你只需点击角落里的指纹传感器,就可以开始对话,而无需解锁手机或打开应用程序。因此,Zuckerberg 所谈论的设备被称为 Muse Charm,它允许用户定制虚拟角色并与其它设备进行交互。

Is expected to go on sale by December with pricing to be determined if you're wondering, and if you remember, looks a little bit like a Tamagotchi. Right, let's think about markets. So, US Treasuries tumbled on the news of rising oil prices and also some strong economic data out yesterday. So, yields on the 5-year US bond pushed above 5%. This for the first time since 2007. BNY's chief investment officer Jason Granite says that that is down to energy prices and also high growth.

预计将于 12 月上市,价格待定。如果你好奇的话,它看起来有点像拓麻歌子(Tamagotchi)。好吧,让我们思考一下市场。因此,由于油价上涨的消息以及昨天公布的一些强劲经济数据,美国国债大幅下跌。5 年期美国债券的收益率首次自 2007 年以来突破 5%。BNY 的首席投资官 Jason Granite 表示,这是由于能源价格和高增长所致。

Number one, if you look at yields in the market, it's been unbelievably well correlated to the price of energy. Brent back over 100. That is as good a forecaster of this move recently as any. And and [snorts] the second thing is you had the strong economic data of the PMIs today but broad-based strength and part of that has been driven by strength coming out of the corporates. The earning cycle has been very strong.

第一,如果你观察市场上的收益率,它与能源价格的相关性一直令人难以置信地高。布伦特原油重回100美元以上。这是近期预测这一走势的最佳指标之一。此外,今天公布的采购经理人指数(PMI)经济数据强劲,整体表现良好,部分原因在于企业端的表现强劲。盈利周期一直非常强劲。

Granite adds that he sees the era of low interest rates as over and that these yields are normal. The sell-off also spread to European debt with German 10-year B yields rising seven basis points to 3.53% yesterday. Now to the UK. Prime Minister Andy Burnham hinted that he doesn't want his government to repeat the tax rises of recent Labor budgets. The leader told reporters that the government raised levies in the past two years and now needs to quote get the balance right.

Granite指出,他认为低利率时代已经结束,这些收益率是正常的。抛售潮也蔓延至欧洲债务市场,德国10年期B类债券收益率昨日上升7个基点至3.53%。接下来看英国。首相安迪·伯纳姆暗示,他不希望他的政府重蹈工党近期预算案加税的覆辙。这位领导人告诉记者,政府在过去的两年里提高了税费,现在需要引语正确把握平衡。

Bloom's James Walco has more. It's a warning from the prime minister to his own party. Tax rises aren't always the answer. The global bond selloff means the UK government has limited fiscal space. Some in the Labor Party are now pushing for tax rises on banks as well as oil and gambling companies to make up the shortfall. The alternative would be state spending cuts, which are likely to upset voters. Despite the looming economic pressures, Bernham plans to use his first leader speech at Labour's annual conference next week

Bloom的James Walco报道了更多细节。这是首相向其所属政党发出的警告:加税并非总是解决问题的办法。全球债券市场的抛售意味着英国政府的财政空间有限。工党内部一些人现在正推动对银行以及石油和赌博公司加税,以弥补资金缺口。另一种选择是削减公共支出,这可能会激怒选民。尽管面临迫在眉睫的经济压力,伯纳姆仍计划在下周工党年会上发表其首次领导人演讲

更进一步:量化金融体系

看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力

进入量化体系 →

关联讨论

同一事件的更多信源

相似阅读

关联信息,但可能不是同一事件