中美达成两月贸易休战，美债收益率飙升至2007年以来高位
China Holds Sensitive F-35 Parts Diverted to Hong Kong, AI Bosses Warn World Leaders
中美贸易休战落地直接影响双边资产风险溢价，美债收益率飙升重塑全球定价锚，两者结合构成宏观核心变量，建议关注汇率波动与股债跷跷板效应。
ABEER: THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA." OUR TOP STORIES. IRAN STANDS FIRM. CHERON SAYS IT IS OPEN TO TALKS BUT WILL NOT BOW TO U.S. PRESSURE. IN THE IRANIAN PRESIDENT SAYS THERE WILL BE NO FREE NAVIGATION THROUGH HORMUZ WHILE SANCTIONS AND THE U.S. BLOCKADE REMAIN. TRADE TRUCE EXTENDED. THE U.S. AND CHINA AGREED TO PUSH THEIR TERROR CEASE-FIRE INTO JANUARY. SCOTT BESSENT SAID A BROADER DEAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS PRESIDENTS TRUMP AND XI MEET IN WASHINGTON.
ABEER：这里是《地平线中东与非洲》。我们的头条新闻。伊朗立场坚定。谢伦表示，美国愿意进行谈判，但不会屈服于美国的压力。伊朗总统表示，在制裁和美国封锁持续期间，霍尔木兹海峡不会有自由通行。贸易休战延长。中美同意将恐怖主义停火协议推迟到一月。斯科特·贝森特表示，在特朗普总统和习近平主席在华盛顿会晤之际，更广泛的协议仍不确定。
AND THE BOND SELLOFF DEEPENS. TREASURY YIELDS SURGED TO LEVELS NOT SEEN IN ALMOST TWO DECADES. STRONG U.S. DATA AND WEAK DEMAND FUEL BETS ON FURTHER FED TIGHTENING. 6:00 A.M. IN JOHANNESBURG. THERE IS PLENTY OF NEWS TO GET YOU STARTED WITH ON THIS THURSDAY. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHERE YOUR MARKET PICTURE IS. WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT THE GLOBAL BOND SELLOFF WHICH HAS BEEN PERMEATING THROUGH THE MARKETS, STARTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THAT STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED PMI DATA POINT THAT CAME OUT OF THE U.S..
债券抛售加剧。国债收益率飙升至近二十年未见的水平。强劲的美国数据和疲软的需求助长了美联储进一步收紧政策的押注。约翰内斯堡时间早上6点。周四有很多新闻可以为您开启新的一天。让我们看看您的市场状况如何。我们刚才谈到全球债券抛售，这一直在渗透各个市场，从周三开始，美国公布了超出预期的PMI数据。
THAT WEAK U.S. 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAGGING DOWN A NUMBER OF GLOBAL BONDS, AND ALSO EQUITIES AS A RESULT. WE HAD A BIT MORE HAWKISH COMMENTARY COMING FROM THE FED GOVERNOR MICHAEL BARR. U.S. EQUITY FUTURES STILL POINTING LOWER, S&P FUTURES DOWN 0.2$. MSCI ASIA PACIFIC INDEX ALSO STILL POINTING LOWER .6%. ON WEDNESDAY WE SAW THE MAJOR INDICES IN THE U.S. CLOSING IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY. NASDAQ SURPRISINGLY SNAPPING A FIVE-DAY WINNING STREAK AFTER JUST ABOUT COMING TO ITS RECORD AFTER A FEW MONTHS.
美国5年期国债拍卖疲软拖累了全球多只债券，同时也导致股市下跌。美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔发表了更为鹰派的评论。美股期货仍指向下跌，标普期货下跌0.2%。MSCI亚太指数也仍指向下跌0.6%。周三我们看到美国主要指数收于负值区域。纳斯达克出人意料地结束了连续五天的上涨势头，此前几个月刚刚创下纪录。
QUITE A SIGNIFICANT SELLOFF WE HAD SEEN. WE ALSO HAVE THE U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD ON THE BOARD. ABOVE 5%. 5.1164%. SURGING TO LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE 2007. WEDNESDAY WAS ONE OF THE WORST SESSIONS FOR TREASURIES. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR DO WE SEE THE SELLOFF CONTINUING? WE ARE SEEING POTENTIALLY A BIT OF RELIEF OIL. BRENT CRUDE STILL ABOVE $102 A BARREL, DOWN .8%. A LOT OF THE QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE RHETORIC COMING BETWEEN THE U.S.
我们看到了相当显著的抛售。我们也有美国10年期收益率的数据。超过5%，达到5.1164%。飙升至自2007年以来未见的高位。周三是国债交易最糟糕的交易日之一。问题是我们要看到抛售继续到什么程度？我们可能会看到一些缓解的石油。布伦特原油仍在每桶102美元以上，下跌0.8%。很多问题的关键在于美国和伊朗之间的言论是什么。
AND IRAN, AND HOW MUCH OIL IS GETTING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AND WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR MORE BROADLY? LET'S CHECK IN ON HOW MARKETS IN ASIA ARE FARING. WINNIE HSU IS STANDING BY. WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING? WINNIE: IT IS A DOWN PICTURE IN ASIA TODAY WITH THE ASIAN STOCKS, MSCI ASIA DOWN BY .7%. THAT IS COMING WITH PRESSURE FROM THE HIGHER GLOBAL BOND YIELDS, AN EXPECTATION FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO RAISE RATES FURTHER.
以及伊朗，有多少石油通过霍尔木兹海峡，这对更广泛的能源行业意味着什么？让我们检查一下亚洲市场的表现。Winnie Hsu 随时待命。你在关注什么？Winnie：今天亚洲股市形势低迷，MSCI亚洲指数下跌0.7%。这是由于全球债券收益率上升，以及对美联储进一步加息的预期带来的压力。
THE BIGGEST DRAG TODAY IS ON ONSHORE CHINESE MARKET WITH THE CSI 300 EXTENDING LOSSES TO MORE THAN 1%. WE HAVE HEARD THE U.S. ANNOUNCE THIS TWO-MONTH TRADE TRUCE EXTENSION WITH CHINA. HOWEVER THIS IS FALLING BELOW THE EXPECTATION OF THREE TO SIX MONTHS. INVESTORS WANT TO HEAR MORE PROGRESS FROM THE ACTUAL TALKS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET YOU CAN SEE STOCKS PARING THE EARLIER LOSSES AFTER THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ROSE IN AUGUST.
今日最大的拖累来自在岸中国市场，沪深300指数跌幅扩大至逾1%。我们获悉美国宣布与中国延长为期两个月的贸易休战。然而，这一期限低于市场预期的三到六个月。投资者希望听到实际谈判取得更多进展的消息。至于澳大利亚市场，你可以看到在8月失业率上升后，股市回吐了此前的部分跌幅。
WE LOOK AT JAPANESE ASSETS BECAUSE TODAY WE HAVE A HOTTER DAY, WHILE JAPAN COMING BACK FROM THEIR THREE-DAY HOLIDAY. A BIT OF A CATCH UP WITH THE NIKKEI TWO TO FIVE UP BY MORE THAN 1%. THIS IS AS OPTIMISM FROM THE NEW AI AGENT FROM META BOOSTING DEMAND FOR THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN. TECH STOCKS OUTPERFORMING THESE DOMESTIC RELATED NAMES. THE YEN, RIGHT NOW STRENGTHENING OF IT, BUT IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE FOUR DAYS OF WEAKENING IN THE PAST FEW SESSIONS.
我们关注日本资产，因为今天是高温天气，而日本刚刚结束三天假期归来。日经225指数上涨逾1%，呈现补涨态势。这得益于Meta推出的新AI代理提振了对AI供应链的需求。科技股表现优于这些与本土相关的股票。日元目前走强，但过去几个交易日中四天的走弱走势也不容忽视。
WE ARE STILL ON THE HIGH INTERVENTION WATCH, ESPECIALLY WITH THE END AROUND THE 158 LEVEL AGAINST THE DOLLAR. JAPANESE YIELDS TRACKING U.S. TREASURIES, TREASURY YIELDS HIGHER AS WELL. JENNIFER: WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. BACK TO OUR TOP STORY. FRESH SIGNS OF DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN, BUT THE TWO SIDES REMAIN FAR APART ON WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO END THE CONFLICT. THE IRANIAN PRESIDENT SAYS TEHRAN IS READY FOR DIALOGUE AND NEGOTIATIONS, BUT WILL NOT NEGOTIATE UNDER THREAT.
我们仍保持高度警惕，密切关注干预措施，尤其是美元兑日元汇率再次接近158关口。日本收益率跟随美国国债走势，美债收益率也有所走高。Jennifer：香港 Winnie Hsu。回到我们的头条新闻。美国和伊朗之间出现外交接触的新迹象，但双方在结束冲突所需的条件上仍存在巨大分歧。伊朗总统表示，德黑兰准备进行对话和谈判，但不会在威胁下进行谈判。
IRAN MUST BE UNDERSTOOD BY MR. TRUMP. THOSE WHO SEEK TO BULLY US FOR DIALOGUE AND DIPLOMACY WITHOUT ACCEPTING THE LANGUAGE OF FORCE. JENNIFER: MEANWHILE, WASHINGTON TEMPERING EXPECTATIONS. SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO DESCRIBED THIS WEEK'S CONTACT AS POSITIVE, BUT CAUTIONED AGAINST CALLING IT A BREAKTHROUGH.
特朗普先生必须理解伊朗。那些试图在不接受武力语言的情况下，通过对话和外交手段来胁迫我们的人。Jennifer：与此同时，华盛顿正在降温预期。国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥本周形容此次接触是积极的，但警告不要将其称为突破。
IF THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO EXCHANGE IDEAS AND MESSAGES, WE WILL. YESTERDAY WAS POSITIVE IN THAT REGARD, BUT ULTIMATELY I DON'T WANT TO MISS CHARACTERIZE THIS AS A MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH. I THINK IT WAS A SIGNIFICANT THERE WAS AT LEAST A CONVERSATION. JENNIFER: BLOOMBERG'S EXECUTIVE EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA IS JOINING US FROM DUBAI. HOW SIGNIFICANT DO YOU SEE THIS DIPLOMATIC OPENING. SEEMS LIKE BOTH SIDES ARE CHARACTERIZING THIS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT.
如果有交换想法和信息的机会，我们会这样做。昨天在这方面是积极的，但最终我不想将此定性为重大突破。我认为这是一次重要的交流，至少进行了一次对话。Jennifer：彭博社中东和北非执行编辑正在从迪拜加入我们。你认为这次外交开放有多重要？似乎双方对此次接触的定性略有不同。
GOOD MORNING. STUART: I WILL GET YOU THE OPTIMISTIC VIEW FIRST, WHICH IS TRULY IT IS BETTER THAN THEIR EXCHANGING IDEAS, OR AT LEAST THE POSITIONS VIA MEDIATORS. THERE HAS TO BE A BETTER POSITION THAN EXCHANGING MISSILES OVER HORMUZ. THE PESSIMISTIC VIEW IS THEY ARE TAKING QUITE MAXIMALIST DEMANDS. IT IS VERY HARD TO SEE WHERE THE COMMON GROUND IS AND HOW THEY TAKE THIS FORWARD. THOSE PESSIMISTS WILL POINT OUT THAT SHIPPING CONTINUES TO BE CONSTRAINED AND ATTACKED.
早上好。斯图尔特：我先说乐观的看法，那就是这确实比交换意见要好，或者至少是通过调解人交换立场。总得有一个比在霍尔木兹海峡互相发射导弹更好的立场。悲观的看法是他们提出了相当极端的诉求。很难看到共同点在哪里，以及他们如何推进此事。那些悲观主义者会指出，航运继续受到限制和袭击。
WE HAD YESTERDAY WHAT MUST BE DOZENS OF INCIDENTS. CLEARLY IT IS A BAD SITUATION ON THE GROUND, REFERENCING THE OIL PRICE CLEARLY THINGS ARE MUCH BETTER THAN THEY WERE A COUPLE MONTHS AGO. JENNIFER: WE WERE TALKING ABOUT HOW OIL IS TURNING LOWER AS WE SEE MORE CRUDE MOVING THROUGH HORMUZ. DO WE KNOW HOW MUCH EXACTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE STRAIT? STUART: THE SHORT ANSWER IS NO. THE MARKET CONSENSUS IS SOMETHING IN THE ORDER OF FIVE TO 10 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY.
昨天我们经历了数十起事件。显然，地面局势糟糕，参考油价来看，情况明显比几个月前好得多。珍妮弗：我们曾讨论过，随着我们看到更多原油通过霍尔木兹海峡，油价正在走低。我们确切知道有多少原油正通过该海峡吗？斯图尔特：简短的回答是不知道。市场共识是每天大约500万到1000万桶。
THERE ARE OIL BARRELS COMING THROUGH, AND WE KNOW SOME ARE GOING TO THE RED SEA AND SIMILARLY THAT IS KEEPING A CAP ON PRICES. IF YOU LOOK AT OIL AT $102 A BARREL, AND IT IS NOT SIGNALING A MARKET THAT IS PARTICULARLY COMFORTABLE WITH THE SUPPLY SITUATION. I WOULD SAY TO WRAP IT ALL UP, IF YOU LOOK AT THE PRODUCTION MARKETS, WHICH IN SOME RESPECTS HAVE BEEN A BETTER GAUGE OF SENTIMENT THAN THE OIL MARKETS OF LATE, THEY ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED IN TERMS OF EXPECTATIONS FOR A DEAL AND RESUMPTION OF THOSE CLOSE.
有石油桶正在通过，我们知道其中一些正运往红海，同样这也对价格起到了压制作用。如果你看每桶102美元的油价，它并没有发出市场对供应状况特别安心的信号。我会总结说，如果你看看生产市场，它们在某种程度上一直是比近期石油市场更能反映情绪的指标，就达成协议并恢复关闭的预期而言，它们基本保持不变。
THEY HAVE BEEN GETTING INCREASINGLY OPTIMISTIC, BUT IT HAS KIND OF FLATLINED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. NO ONE HAS PUNCHED AT LEAST IN TERMS OF EXPECTATIONS FOR A RESOLUTION ANYTIME SOON. JENNIFER: BLOOMBERG'S EXECUTIVE EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA STARTING THIS OFF. PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS RULED OUT -- ROLLED OUT THE RED CARPET FOR XI JINPING, WHO IS MAKING HIS FIRST STATE VISIT TO THE U.S. IN OVER A DECADE, IN A NOTABLE DEPARTURE FROM PROTOCOL TRUMP EVEN PERSONALLY WELCOMED XI ON THE AIRPORT TARMAC.
它们一直变得越来越乐观，但在过去几天里基本上停滞不前。没有人至少在解决预期的任何短期内采取行动。珍妮弗：彭博社中东和北非执行编辑以此开场。特朗普总统排除了——为习近平铺好了红地毯，习近平正在对美国进行十多年来的首次国事访问，这是一个显著的惯例偏离，特朗普甚至在机场停机坪亲自欢迎习近平。
SHORTLY AFTER THAT TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT ANNOUNCED ON FOX NEWS THAT WASHINGTON AND BEIJING AGREED TO A TWO MONTH EXTENSION OF THEIR TRADE TRUCE.
不久之后，财政部长斯科特·贝森特在福克斯新闻上宣布，华盛顿和北京同意将其贸易休战期延长两个月。
I DON'T KNOW WHETHER A BIGGER DEAL CAN BE DONE. I DON'T KNOW WHETHER WE WILL ROLL THE CURRENT DEAL. THERE ARE SOME DELIVERABLES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN PERFECT ON THE CHINESE SIDE. WE ALSO WANT TO SEE, NOW THAT WE SAT DOWN AND TOLD THEM OUR EXPECTATIONS TO SEE IF OVER THE COMING MONTHS THEY CAN BE MORE FULSOME IN ENACTING THE AGREEMENT. JENNIFER: LET'S GO LIVE TO THE U.S. CAPITOL AND OUR CHIEF NORTH ASIA CORRESPONDENT STEPHEN ENGLE.
我不知道能否达成更大的协议。我不知道我们是否会延续当前的协议。中方有一些交付成果尚未完善。我们也想看看，既然我们已经坐下来向他们表达了我们的期望，在接下来的几个月里，他们能否更充分地履行协议。詹妮弗：让我们连线美国国会大厦，以及我们的驻北亚首席记者斯蒂芬·恩格尔。
HOW SURPRISING IS THIS EXTENSION AND IS IT ENOUGH TIME TO REACH A SUBSTANTIAL DEAL? WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS? STEPHEN: IT IS AN EXTENSION TO BUY TIME TO GET THEIR DUCKS IN A ROW, IFY OUWILL. SINCE THE MAY SUMMIT IN BEIJING UNTIL NOW, THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PROGRESS ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN PREOCCUPIED WITH THE LONGER THAN EXPECTED WAR IN IRAN, AND MORE IMMEDIATELY THEY ARE PREOCCUPIED WITH THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS.
这次延期令人惊讶吗？是否有足够的时间达成实质性协议？你如何看待此事？斯蒂芬：这是一次争取时间的延期，以便让他们理清头绪（if you will）。自五月北京峰会以来，两国在贸易和投资方面进展不大。特朗普政府一直忙于应对比预期更长的伊朗战争，而更紧迫的是，他们正专注于中期选举。
I WOULD CALL IT A HASTILY ARRANGED MEETING BETWEEN THE TOP TWO NEGOTIATORS ON SUNDAY IN NEW YORK TO KIND OF GET THEIR NOTES COMPARED, AND WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DELIVER TOMORROW, THURSDAY AT THE SUMMIT? THEY HAD SO MUCH TO DO IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THAT THEY EVEN MET AGAIN TODAY. SCOTT BESSENT AND AT THE WORLD BANK HEADQUARTERS AROUND THE BLOCK HERE. THAT IS WHERE THEY CAME UP WITH THIS COMPROMISE BECAUSE THE CHINESE WANT A
我会称其为两位最高谈判代表于周日在纽约匆忙安排的一次会面，旨在比较各自的笔记，并确定我们在周四峰会上将交付什么。他们在短时间内要做的事情太多，以至于今天又见了一次面。斯科特·贝森特和世界银行总部就在街对面。正是在这里，他们达成了这一妥协，因为中方希望有一个
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力