美伊协议对市场与消费者的影响分析

Talks between the U.S. and Iran are planned for tomorrow in Switzerland following the signing of the MoU. President Trump signed that memorandum of understanding before a dinner last night with French President Emmanuel Macron at Versailles. Iran's president also digitally signing the document. The agreement could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease pressure on oil and shipping costs, and give consumers some relief at the pump. But the discussions are still fragile. Good news that it's happened, but I would say it really extends the cease fire for another 60 days. It opens up the Strait of Hormuz, which provides economic relief, and it provides a very broad framework to talk about the strategic issues. But I think there are a lot of obstacles along the way. Here's what this deal means for markets and the consumer, and why the economic relief may not come right away. A key reason markets are reacting is because the agreement is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world's most important oil choke points. I think the next few months will be marked by the economic phase of this, where we'll see relief oil prices will go down at the pump, they will go down. Fewer restrictions on Iranian trade could marginally increase the global supply of oil, but the bigger impact would come from the strait reopening, helping energy prices fall. But even that isn't guaranteed. There are hundreds of ships that remain backed up inside the Strait of Hormuz. Just because Hormuz reopens, it doesn't necessarily mean that those ships are going to be moving through straight away. The pure logistics of getting those ships, their crews and their captains moving again, but also insurance, which remains a major barrier here. The question is, if the talks look rough, will they rush back in?

Will they come back in to reload in a few weeks? If you're an insurer or you know, a ship owner or a crewman is, once you get out, do you want to get trapped back in there again?

If shipping lanes stabilize, that can help lower fuel costs, shipping costs, and some inflation pressure. How soon before ships start moving again?I think is a really big question at this point. If we do see transits moving in a faster way than expected, then that might result in oil prices coming even further down than they have already. Consumers could also benefit from a drop in oil prices. The cost at the pump, along with airfare delivery costs and the overall cost of imported goods, are affected by oil prices. And if those go down, there's a good chance there will be a knock on effect across the economy. It looks like it's rolling over oil thanks to the deal and oil price is moving lower. That wave will still feed through a bit to core inflation, but it should peak around Q3. Roll over maybe, you know, by its going to rollover by late Q4. President Trump wants to have lower economic prices, lower prices at the pump before November, and then after November gives him even more time to work through the strategic issues, the nuclear issues. Another way this could impact consumers is through interest rates. Now, the Federal Reserve doesn't set interest rate policy based on one diplomatic agreement. But energy prices are relevant to overall inflation. If energy prices fall and stay lower, that could reduce one source of inflation pressure and give policymakers more room to consider rate cuts later. But if higher costs from fuel, shipping or food keep feeding into the economy, the Fed may have less room to ease rates. The Fed unanimously decided to hold rates steady at its June meeting and stopped short of signaling relief is coming soon. Policymakers removed language pointing towards future cuts as they weigh whether higher energy, shipping and food costs could keep inflation elevated. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, despite elevated uncertainty that owes in part to the conflict in the Middle East. We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed's long stated inflation goal of 2%. That's been going on for more than five years. Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people. The market is largely pricing in interest rates, staying higher for longer and possibly moving higher still. But economists are split. My modal case is still that the Fed is able to tough it out, get through this without hiking. But it's getting tight. And if the Fed does go, they're going 2 or 3 times. Not once. I think unlike currently priced into the markets, it's more likely that there's a rate cut by the end of the year than a rate hike. Negotiations for any geopolitical deal are delicate, and this one is no exception. There is some concern about what could possibly prevent the deal from going through. Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it really clear that he is really fighting his own agenda here, not just against Hezbollah in Lebanon, but also against Hamas in Gaza and other Iranian proxies around the region that Israel deems a threat to its own security. He's been an amazing prime minister. We have a little dispute over Lebanon. I say you can do a little softer touch. Whether or not this deal actually means we will see a full cessation of the fighting, I think remains to be seen at this point. Additionally, this agreement is not designed to settle every issue. There are still questions around Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, Iran's missile program and its regional proxies, which officials have said they hope to address in the next phase of negotiations. We feel quite confident that we're in a strong position here. Fundamentally, we have the leverage, we have the diplomatic, economic and military leverage. And it's a memorandum of understanding. If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's all right. We go back to bombing. You know, I don't want to do that because it's so good. But we might have to because we're never going to let them have a nuclear weapon.