美伊核谈60天倒计时，霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航

GOOD MORNING. AND THIS IS HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA. OUR TOP STORIES. NUCLEAR COUNTDOWN. THE U.S. AND IRAN HAVE 60 DAYS TO REACH A NUCLEAR AGREEMENT AND A MORE PERMANENT PEACE DEAL. FACE-TO-FACE TALKS IN SWITZERLAND ARE ALREADY DELAYED WITH VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE NOT LEAVING THURSDAY AS EXPECTED. OIL IS HEADED FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WEEKLY DROP AS SHIPS ARE NOW BACK SAILING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITH THE U.S. DECLARING AN END. ANDY BURNHAM WINS A CONTEST FOR AN OPEN U.K. PARLIAMENTARY SEAT, PAVING THE WAY FOR THE GREATER MANCHESTER MAYOR TO CHALLENGE PRIME MINISTER KEIR STARMER FOR THE TOP JOB. IT HAS JUST GONE 8:00 A.M. ACROSS THE EMIRATES. HAPPY FRIDAY. HAPPY WEEK FOR RISK ASSETS ACROSS THE BOARD. IT HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF A WEEK STARTING WITH THE U.S.-IRAN TRUCE. KEVIN WARSH'S FIRST MEETING AS FED CHAIR AND THE BOJ HIKING RATES TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1995. LET'S LOOK AT WHERE EQUITY FUTURES ARE THIS MORNING. S&P FUTURES 0.4 LOWER, TRIMMING SOME OF THE GAINS IN THE S&P 500 YESTERDAY. SOMETHING TO NOTE IS THAT THE U.S. IS CLOSED TODAY FOR JUNETEENTH, A PUBLIC HOLIDAY. PERHAPS WE TALK ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN THE S&P YESTERDAY, A 1.1% GAIN LED BY CHIPMAKERS. INTEL RISING 11% AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THEY WOULD WORK WITH APPLE TO START MANUFACTURING THOSE CHIPS WITHIN THE UNITED STATES. WE SAW THAT RALLY CARRY THROUGH THE STOCKS INDEX WHICH IS ABOUT 100% HIGHER SINCE THE. AND A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN IT YESTERDAY. ASIAN EQUITIES ARE 1% LOWER THIS MORNING. THE MSCI ASIA PACIFIC WAS BEING LED HIGHER BY THE KOSPI IN SOUTH KOREA, BUT NOW WE SEE SOME DROP IN THE WIDER EQUITIES. LOWER VOLUMES IN TRADING TODAY AGAINST THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, TAIWAN AND HONG KONG. BRENT CRUDE PRICES LOWER THIS WEEK. WE ARE SEEING BRENT AT AROUND $79 A BARREL, LEVELS WE HAD NOT SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS WAR. WE STILL MONITOR THE TRAFFIC AND MOVEMENT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS. U.S. TREASURIES, CASH TRADING IS CLOSED TODAY. JUNETEENTH IN THE UNITED STATES. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE BLOOMBERG SPOT DOLLAR INDEX. THE DOLLAR IS GAINING FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT SESSION THIS MORNING. 0.1 HIGHER, AN ASSET WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT SINCE THE START OF THIS WAR. IF WE FLIP THE BOARD, WE TAKE A LOOK AT AN INTERESTING CHART PUT THROUGH BY OUR MARKETS TEAM, AND THAT IS HOW U.S. SEMIS ARE DRIVING A NEW EQUITY REGIME. THE RATIO OF THE GAUGE FOR CHIPMAKERS OR SEMI CONDUCTORS TO THE S&P 500, AN INCREDIBLY BUSY DAY OF FLOW IN THE UNITED STATES YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE PUBLIC HOLIDAY. IT INDICATED SHORTS ARE QUITE DONE WITH SETTING MONEY ON FIRE. TRADERS SEEM TO BE WANTING TO BUY MORE DISPERSION AS APPOINTED BY THE LOWER HALF OF THAT CHART. TURNING TO THE GEOPOLITICAL STORY IN THE REGION, THE U.S.-IRAN INTERIM PEACE DEAL IS NOW IN EFFECT. WASHINGTON DECLARED AN END TO ITS BLOCKADE AND A COMPLEX NEGOTIATION PERIOD OVER TO IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS SET TO BEGIN. OIL SHIPMENTS THROUGH THE KEY MARITIME WATERWAY HAVE BEGUN IN EARNEST. >> I THINK THE PRESIDENT'S PEACE PLAN IN IRAN IS ALREADY BEARING REAL FRUITS FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. LAST NIGHT 12.5 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL WENT THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A HIGH SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT. ABEER: JOINING ME IS STEWART LIVING STONE WALLACE, BLOOMBERG'S EXECUTIVE EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA AND RUSSIA. GOOD NEWS, WE ARE GETTING GOOD NEWS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT STILL SOME CONFLICT FROM THE IRAN AND U.S. SIDE. THE LATEST IS ABOUT THIS 60 DAY PERIOD OF WHICH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WOULD BE OPEN TOLL-FREE. THERE IS SOME CONFLICT AFTERWARDS. STUART: IT IS A LITANY OF THINGS. WE WILL HAVE A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN IRAN AND PROBABLY MOST OF THE REST OF THE WORLD. YES, THE TOLLS ON HORMUZ HUGELY IMPORTANT. THE FEELING WITHIN THE REGION IS THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE. MOST OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE PERSIAN GULF ARE ACTIVELY WORKING ON PLANS TO MOVE PAST HORMUZ. WE HAVE THE COMING FROM THE UAE, SAY AND ITS GOAL IS ZERO DEPENDENCE. NUCLEAR IS THE BIG ONE. IN 60 DAYS, WE KNOW THE ODDS OF GETTING A COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR DEAL ARE VANISHINGLY SMALL. I WOULD NEVER SAY IMPOSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LAST ONE TOOK TWO YEARS TO NEGOTIATE AND HAD INCREDIBLY EXPERIENCED AND KNOWLEDGEABLE PEOPLE, 60 DAYS SEEMS A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. AND THERE IS A WHOLE SERIES AROUND BALLISTIC MISSILES, PROXIES AND SO FORTH. ABEER: THERE IS ALSO THE LEBANON AND ISRAEL AND SHE APPEARED WE SAW SHOTS FIRED BETWEEN VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE TELLING ISRAEL THAT THE U.S. AT THIS POINT IS THEIR ONLY FRIEND AND THAT WE ARE GETTING SOME ISRAELI OFFICIALS DISAGREEING WITH THE DEAL THAT WAS REACHED. HOW QUICKLY CAN ALL OF THIS CAUSE US TO GO BACK TO SQUARE ONE?

STUART: IT IS A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE PROBLEMS WE SEE IN EACH OF THE MAIN PARTIES. YOU SEE EXACTLY THE SAME THING WITH THE IRAN HARDLINERS, REALLY DON'T LIKE THIS DEAL. THE SUPREME LEADER HAS NOT -- I WOULD NOT SAY DISTANCED HIMSELF, BUT MADE CLEAR THIS IS SOMEONE ELSE'S DECISION. YOU ARE SEEING THE SAME THING IN THE U.S. WITH THE IRANIANS, EXPRESSING EXTREME DISQUIET WITH THIS DEAL AND WITHIN ISRAEL ITSELF YOU HAVE HARDLINERS REALLY UNHAPPY WITH THIS DEAL, BASICALLY LEAVES THE JOB UNFINISHED. ABEER: SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. BLOOMBERG'S EXECUTIVE EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA AND RUSSIA FOR THOSE DETAILS. LET'S GET MORE WITH MANAGING DIRECTOR FOR EMERGING MARKET EQUITY AND SHE POLITICAL STRATEGY. GOOD TO HAVE YOU ON. I WANT TO FOCUS ON THE NEXT 30 DAYS AND THE NAVAL BLOCKADE AND REMOVAL OF THAT NAVAL BLOCKADE. WHAT IMPACT WOULD THAT HAVE ON THE ECONOMIES OF THE PERSIAN GULF OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR SO?

HASNAIN: THE ECONOMIES WITH THE MOST POSITIVE EXPOSURE TO THE RESUMPTION OF OIL FLOWS THROUGH HORMUZ ARE THOSE ONES WHO SUFFERED THE MOST FROM THE BLOCKADE, AND THAT MEANS WITHIN THE GCC THE LIKES OF KUWAIT, QATAR, BAHRAIN, FURTHER AFIELD, IRAQ. THEY HAVE THE HIGHEST LEVERAGE TO THE REOPENING OF HORMUZ. MORE BROADLY IF WE SEE A CEASEFIRE HOLDS SUSTAINABLY, THEN THE ECONOMY THAT IS MOST GEARED IS THE TOURIST AND TRANSPORT DRIVEN ECONOMY OF DUBAI. THOSE WOULD BE THE ONES IN THE REGION THAT ARE MOST EXPOSED TO THE UPSIDE OF A SOMEWHAT DURABLE CEASE-FIRE. ABEER: YOU MENTIONED SOME OF THE DIVERGENCES THAT WOULD BE BROUGHT ABOUT IN THE AFTERMATH OF THIS CONFLICT AT GULF ALLIES ARE THE GCC. DO YOU THINK ONCE THIS IS DONE AND DUSTED THAT WE WILL SEE MORE OF THESE DIVERGENCES FUELED, SAUDI ARABIA, THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AND WHAT IMPACT WOULD THAT HAVE?

ABEER: I THINK IT IS UNLIKELY THAT AFTER THIS WAR, AND IT IS STILL A BIG ASSUMPTION THAT THIS WAR HAS TRULY ENDED, MANY SLIPS AHEAD BETWEEN WHERE WE ARE NOW AND GETTING A LASTING SETTLEMENT, SO GOING FROM CEASE-FIRE TO SETTLEMENT. IF WE WERE TO GET TO THAT POINT, THERE ARE SOME SCARS LEFT BY THIS WAR. THERE ARE SCARS AS FAR AS THE U.S.'S RELATIONSHIP WITH MANY OF ITS ALLIES. IN THE REGION THE MEMORIES OF HOW U.S. BASES SERVED AS A SPARK FOR IRANIAN ATTACKS, RATHER THAN A LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST THOSE ATTACKS, THAT. WILL LAST FOR A LONG TIME. THE FACT THAT THIS WAR WAS STARTED BY THE U.S. AND ISRAEL REALLY WITHOUT MUCH INPUT FROM THE GCC, WHO WOULD HAVE BEEN AGAINST THIS SORT OF WAR, AND THE FACT THAT ONCE THE BLOCKADE OF HORMUZ STARTED, THE U.S. WAS NOT ABLE TO CALL UPON ITS TRADITIONAL ALLIES IN NATO, IN EUROPE AND THE U.K., IN INDIA, JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA TO UNBLOCK HORMUZ. THOSE SCARS WILL LAST FOR SOME TIME. THEN YOU HAVE DIVISIONS WITHIN THE GCC. SAUDI ARABIA DEVELOPED ITS DEFENSE RELATIONS WITH PAKISTAN, TURKEY AND EGYPT, AND THE UAE, WHICH HAS FALLEN BACK ON ITS ABRAHAM ACCORDS RELATIONSHIP WITH ISRAEL AND HAS WITHDRAWN FROM OPEC. THOSE LASTING DIVISIONS, THAT STRAIN WILL PERSIST. THROUGH ALL OF THAT YOU HAVE IRAN HAVING EMERGED ARGUABLY AS A STRONGER REGIONAL POWER WITH A MORE HARD-LINE. ABEER: SO YOU BRING A VERY GOOD POINT, THE SHIFTING PARADIGMS IN THE REGION. I REMEMBER DURING THE 12 DAY WAR LAST YEAR HOW BOTH OFFICIALS, OR SOME GOLF OFFICIALS WOULD BRING UP HOW -- GULF OFFICIALS WOULD BRING UP HOW