Anthropic IPO获6倍超额认购，大陆及香港机构被排除

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Let's get back to tech and new issuance in tech again. anthropic IPO. The company's on the road here. Um, so I think the CEO is doing a fireside chat with Jamie Diamond, uh, CEO of JP Morgan Chase. I don't know if that's happened. Anthony Hughes knows all this stuff. He's a US uh, equity capital markets reporter for Bloomberg News. What's the status of the road show here, Anthony, for Anthropic?

Well, Paul, we're in day four of a 7-day road show which culminates in the deal pricing next Wednesday night on the 18th. But in terms of the fireside chat that's on today at JP Morgan's headquarters in New York, uh Jamie Diamond and Dario Amadi are um having that fireside chat and they're speaking to high net worth investors who have been invited a select group

and this is this is webcast right it's

this is actually webcast yes anthropic just as just uh about 20 minutes ago they put a post on there on X which uh has a link to a YouTube uh live stream of this event. So, this event's going to start at around noon and uh uh I'm not sure how long it's going to go for. I guess an hour or so, maybe less. But uh this will be an opportunity for people to hear from Dario Amadai directly. Obviously, he's already done a lot of road show road shows with and meetings with institutional investors, but this is an opportunity for um you know, retail investors to have a bit more of a look uh you know, look him in the eye.

Yeah. So, you guys reported that the deal uh is about six times overs subscribed. from your perspective when we compare this IPO it's hard to compare of course but still how strong is this demand

it's a good question I mean I think with a lots of IPOs uh we would say double digit demand and 20 times 30 times was good but this is obviously such a large deal that six was is um you know is uh is actually pretty good in fact when we go back to the SpaceX IPO in June we I think it ended up around four five times I think there was not necessarily a final number that was confirmed and they also had a lot of retail as well so at the same point at which where that which SpaceX got to its IPO.

I mean, this deal is is kind of doing better, although it's a little smaller, of course. But the interesting thing we're going to hear about maybe in the next few days, but maybe not till next Wednesday, is whether they'll change the terms in in the sense of making this a bigger deal, upsizing, selling more shares or increasing the price. I mean they they can with really hot IPOs it's common to see companies a few days before pricing to put out a new filing with the SEC and then sometimes they increase the range.

So the range here is 7078. So you know theoretically you could see them put out another filing in the next few days. Monday morning's always a nice time um and have a higher range but I think the sources that I'm talking to seem to be cautioning putting a bit of caution on that because um you know I think uh anthropics trying to be a bit conservative at least as much you can be with a $1 trillion company and uh you know they've obviously already there's been a lot of back and forth with institutions in terms of where what's the right valuation and they want to make sure that this actually does all right on the first day um which is no certainty.

I think a lot of people have there's a lot of mixed views and some people think this is not going to go well and then other people think this will do better than what people expect but I think there is a thing called the 20% safe harbor where um essentially without refiling you can still increase the size of the offering and price a little bit above the range as well. So that's that might be the approach that Anthropic takes here although the demand's been pretty good.

All right here's a story that got my attention today. Uh Bloomberg News reporting that institutional investors based in mainland China and Hong Kong have been excluded from placing orders anthropics initial public offering. Um mainland China I can kind of get but boy the Hong Kong news kind of got my attention like things are changing there. They have changed and I guess they continue to change. What's the is how unusual is it for

uh this type of news? Well, I think most IPOs don't necessarily go out so wide globally, but these with this was actually a similar arrangement with SpaceX from what we reported there. Uh so in some ways it's just what SpaceX did, but it just does highlight the national security concerns that do relate to it to um a business like Anthropic and obviously there's a it's it's a very sensitive issue at the moment around USChinese relationship around the IP but also just um the competition that's emerging between um you know Frontier Labs in the US versus China.

So I think this is a very sensitive topic. You know, you mentioned retail and I think it's going to be one of the most important angles for this story. Uh we talked to different sources about what retail is planning to do. At least retail traders I spoke with, they are so excited. They are so ready to go, but some of them are really careful because Anthropic doesn't have this Elon Musk personality like we had with SpaceX.

What is your view on the retail demand and how significant it's going to be for this IPO specifically? Well, I think it's been really interesting to contrast this with SpaceX because a lot of the feedback we've been getting, I think, from really small investors is that they are not as interested in this company as SpaceX. Now, I think that might not necessarily the case at the institutional level of the retail level.

I think there is a bit of skepticism around AI overall and I think maybe maybe there's some human bias against AI. I don't know. Uh the other interesting thing is that we you know we've reported that maybe they'll allocate 15 20% of the IPO to retail but you know there's a lot

I think with SpaceX right I think they allocated a similar amount.

Well I think SpaceX was was there was a lot of speculation before that they before the IPO that they were going to do much larger than normal which was 30% and ended up being around 20 22% from what what we heard. But um it uh unfortunately for retail investors, it sounds like they there's a big risk here that they might really cut back the retail allocation. So it might be quite hard for retail investors to get stock.

But you know, you talk about the secondary market and I think we talked about that the other day, which is that that might allow people to trade in the aftermarket more, you know, leave a lot people wanting more in the aftermarket. That will be the hope for anthropic. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m.

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All right, Natalyia Kan Javich and Paul Sweeney. Natala sitting in for Scarlett Fusar. We'll be back on Monday. It's what people are telling me. All right, we've been going at this Nvidia thing from every which angle here. Uh, and we have the Bloomberg intelligence analyst talking to us. We have the Bloomberg News reporters helping us out here. We really want to get a sense of maybe what the potential legal liabilities uh, and exposure this company may have, maybe some individuals as well.

Matt Shutelm, uh, he is a media litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh, Matt, I know you've been looking at this uh, from the legal exposure perspective. Kind of frame it out kind of how you're thinking abou