Anthropic IPO获超倍数认购，估值或上调至1.5万亿美元

Barely just started the roadshow. But if you follow the amended S1 and some of the indications you're hearing from investors, we reported this morning that it's already multiple times oversubscribed. A lot of that is coming from your anchor type investor. So this is in some sort of retail mania driving this. This is your long only manager. Think of names like, you know, maybe like Wellington or Blackrock. Hypothetically speaking, those are the kind of names that are putting in big orders, and bankers sound confident about it.

There was another report late last night from the Financial Times which said that, you know, even the s even though the S-1 indicated a fully diluted valuation of 1.4 trillion, they could already talking about bumping it up to about 1.5 trillion. And if you get to that mark, that takes you back to about three weeks back when people were starting to wonder again over the summer, bankers had privately floated this idea that this company could be worth 1.75, even $2 trillion.

But there was a serious price reset. And especially with the reset in the eye trade, there were real questions of where anthropic valuation could come in at and 1.5 trillion actually seem like the top end of what the expectations were. People were talking about 1.4 to 1.5, possibly going below that as low as $1.1 trillion. But based on the initial expression of interest, some some of the big players, and it's very clear that the lead banks seem very confident as obviously the cornerstone investors, they've already lined up for about 26 billion of the roughly $90 billion raised already.

So the 1.5 trillion seems like a real possibility. And with the core we've earnings last night, the fact that there's some strength returning to the eye trade. Eh. Don't be surprised if this prices at adorable 1.5 trillion and there could be a little bit of a pop after that. Absolutely. I mean, kind of speaking to that expectations, I'm kind of curious. You did also talk about how investors are already reselling access to their expected IPO allocations.

What does that kind of tell us right now about, like the appetite for this type of mega deal? I mean, that's just a fascinating change in the IPO market. And Paul, maybe you have some fascinating so but back in my day with now and again, we were speaking to some folks, one of the institutional, one of the brokerages that was actually shopping this deal. We spoke to one of the executives there, and he said the first time they really saw anything like this was during the space IPO, and they were really skeptical whether these things could clear.

And quite a few of those deals cleared. This is not this is not someone trying to offload their locked up shares that that you can get after. And then you can look to release after the IPO. This is investment firms that are expecting a sizable allocation already trying to de-risk a portion of that, or trying to broaden their investor base by trying to attract new LPs, offering them the sort of deal for a pretty steep upfront price.

That seems like a fairly but risk free trade to me. And this is the reporting by you and by Billy Schultz. Jones Trading Institutional Services is marketing a block of anthropic shares of up to $500 million on behalf of investors, with a fee of 3 to 5%, on top of where the initial public offering price prices. I haven't seen that before back when I was doing this stuff for a living. But that's more liquidity for some of these long time potential owners, I guess.

But that's the thing. You know, it's not necessarily just these long term potential. These are people who are looking to get in on the new IPO. They are saying, look, we're a big enough name and we expect to get a sizable allocation and we're willing to offload some of that for a fee again, once again proving that if you have to find real sources of Alpha in the morning in the market, there are a lot of hedge funds that are purely in the buying flip business that like to operate in the newest IPO market, and that's where they find their edge.

This here shows us that access is the new alpha, and that is the alpha that's here to stay. Perhaps super interesting, especially as we look ahead to potentially OpenAI going public next year is kind of the types of transactions that we're expecting to become more common. Or is it still going to be kind of rare? Look, I think you can definitely think of why these trends, these transactions would be interesting with names like SpaceX and anthropic where there is just so much embedded interest.

Yes, maybe we get an OpenAI IPO early next year and maybe we see similar trends with that. But once you get beyond these big names, it is hard to imagine that this is the kind of residual demand that will be there for almost every other IPO. I can't imagine this kind of change scaling, but for the biggest names and the biggest ideas. Yeah, this is a new source of making money for sure. Um, looking at space because that's kind of the comp in terms of size of deal.

Um, $140. And again, the IPO price of 135. So 30s left. I mean, that's kind of help, I would think this, this, this deal for anthropic is the fact that it has not gone anywhere since the IPO is perhaps not great news for Elon Musk, but it's not cratered. And that's a deal that came in at a $1.75 trillion valuation. We never seen a company go public at that valuation. So that was a proof point that you can still carry out these mega IPO.

And with anthropic willing to come in at a more conservative valuation. Yes. That is definitely an encouraging sign.