美国中期选举民主党横扫,AI板块暴跌引发市场恐慌
Stocks Plunge After the Midterms. Can Bitcoin Survive the AI Selloff?
中期选举结果落地与美股AI板块剧烈回调构成重大宏观与行业拐点,标普与纳指单日跌幅创近年新高,直接影响跨资产配置策略,建议关注政策转向对科技股估值的冲击。
Bankless Nation, it's the first week of November. We got a blue wave and a black swan. We got the midterm results in. Uh first, the markets hated the Democrat sweep. Then it loved it the day after the midterms. And now on Thursday morning, we are seeing some of the worst selling that we have seen in many years, many, many years. The worst decline in both the NASDAQ and the S&P since something like 2018. In just the first 40 minutes of trading, the S&P 500 has raised $2 trillion in the market cap.
Bankless Nation,现在是十一月的第一周。我们迎来了蓝色浪潮和黑天鹅事件。中期选举结果已经出炉。首先,市场厌恶民主党全面获胜的局面。然后在中期选举后的第二天,市场又对此表示欢迎。而现在在周四早上,我们看到的是多年来最严重的抛售之一,而且是很多年、很多年的第一次。纳斯达克和标普500指数出现了自2018年以来最严重的下跌。在交易开始的前40分钟内,标普500指数的市值蒸发了2万亿美元。
There was a a midterm rally right after the midterms got over and that's all completely gone. Uh crypto is getting hit as well, but I would say not as bad. Uh was this because of the midterms or was this the AI bubble popping or was this something else?
中期选举结束后曾出现过一波反弹行情,但现在这一切都消失了。加密货币也受到了冲击,但我想说情况并没有那么糟糕。这是由中期选举引起的吗?还是人工智能泡沫破裂导致的?亦或是其他原因?
I don't know, David. It seemed like we were just out of the woods on the crypto side from the biggest hack in crypto history and the biggest heist ever. $6 billion Binance hack that happened last Friday. Crypto went down, then it was recovering. Things looked good and now we have this AI sell-off to contend with. But we got to go over the details of the Binance hack and put it in historic context. Actually go through the retrospective of what happened.
我不知道,David。看起来我们刚刚从加密历史上最大的黑客攻击和有史以来最大规模的盗窃案中恢复过来——上周五发生的60亿美元币安被盗事件。加密货币价格下跌后正在复苏,形势一度看好,现在我们又要面对这波人工智能股票的抛售潮。但我们必须深入了解币安被盗事件的细节,并将其置于历史背景中进行回顾,实际上要复盘整个事件的过程。
And it also wasn't just crypto bank, a major crypto bank that was hacked last week. a regular bank was hacked as well and they use crypto as their getaway car. I want to tell you about this because last week we posed the question, hey, can this type of thing happen to traditional banks, fiat? If so,
而且上周被黑客攻击的不仅仅是一家主要的加密货币银行,一家普通银行也被入侵了,而犯罪分子使用加密货币作为 getaway car(逃跑工具)。我想跟大家讲讲这件事,因为上周我们提出了一个问题:嘿,这种类型的攻击会不会发生在传统银行或法币体系上?如果是的话,
I thought banks are safe.
我以为银行是安全的。
They're not safe. Okay, I want to give you the story of of how hackers got in, what they did with the funds and what's going to happen next.
它们并不安全。好的,我想给大家讲述一下黑客是如何进入系统的,他们如何处理这些资金,以及接下来会发生什么。
Also, it's Ethereum Devcon happening in Mumbai, India in the moment. So, we get to go uh down onto the ground, get some takes from people who are there on the streets. Uh there was updates to the lean road map for Ethereum from Justin Drake making Ethereum postquantum even sooner. We got updates from layer 2B and also just a sample of what Ethereum and Vitalic are focusing on from the Devcon keynote that we get every single Devcon.
此外,以太坊开发者大会(Ethereum Devcon)正在印度孟买举行。因此,我们可以深入现场,听听那些身处街头的人们的一些看法。Justin Drake 更新了以太坊的轻量级路线图,使以太坊实现后量子安全的时间提前了。我们还收到了来自 Layer 2B 的最新消息,并从 Devcon 的主题演讲中了解到以太坊团队和 Vitalik Buterin 目前关注的重点内容,这是我们每次参加 Devcon 都能获得的信息。
But first we're got to just talk about the markets. The markets can't seem to make up their mind. Yeah, there was a Democrat sweep of course. This is the blue wave. The Senate flipped in favor of the Democrats. 54 senators elected, I think two other seats in contention. That is a healthy majority. Also, the the House flipped blue as well. So, there's a full sweep. Both chambers pretty historic win. Both chambers flipping in this way.
但首先,我们得先谈谈市场。市场似乎拿不定主意。是的,当然出现了民主党横扫的局面。这就是蓝色浪潮。参议院翻转为民主党所有。54名参议员当选,我认为还有另外两个席位存在争议。这是一个健康的多数优势。此外,众议院也翻转为蓝色。因此,实现了全面横扫。两院都取得了相当历史性的胜利。两院都以这种方式发生了翻转。
And also the numbers, governor races, like definitely this was a blue wave. Some calling it a blue tsunami. I'm I don't know if I'd go that far, but this is definitely the Democrats pushing in to recent Republican gains. I think the answer to why is probably everyone everyone kind of knows. This seemed like a self-inflicted wound from the Trump agenda. I think DC investor had a had a take where he just said, "Look, you know, people aren't into the war, energy prices going up, uh CPI going up.
还有数字方面,州长选举等,这毫无疑问是一场蓝色浪潮。有人称之为蓝色海啸。我不确定是否要走到那一步,但这无疑是民主党在扭转近期的共和党收益。我认为原因的答案大概是大家都心知肚明。这看起来像是特朗普议程造成的自残式伤口。我想DC投资者有一个观点,他说:“看,你知道,人们不喜欢战争,能源价格上涨,呃CPI上升。”
It seemed like Trump wasn't focused on affordability. Trump had a mandate and he just floundered all of it."
看起来特朗普没有专注于可负担性。特朗普拥有授权,但他却一事无成。
Yes. So even on things like you know border security which was you know somewhat popular the way it was implemented ICE in cities with masks and people I mean this this seemed like it was coming and and certainly uh Democrat voters showed up for it.
是的。所以即使在边境安全这类问题上,你知道,以那种方式实施的话,某种程度上是受欢迎的,比如ICE(移民和海关执法局)在城市里戴着口罩行动,人们……我的意思是,这似乎是必然趋势,而且显然民主党选民为此投了票。
But the question as to like what's going on in the markets is still to be determined. In fact, David, maybe we should uh in a minute you could pull up some charts because a lot of this is playing out over real time. But you started, you said this was one of the largest crashes that we've seen in recent memory on the S&P, at least in terms of like volume and time scales here.
但关于市场究竟发生了什么的问题仍有待确定。事实上,David,也许稍后你可以调出一些图表,因为很多情况正在实时展开。但你提到,你说这是我们在近期记忆中看到的S&P(标准普尔指数)最大跌幅之一,至少在成交量和时间尺度上是这样。
Yeah, I keep having to update my numbers on the S&P, but in the last just day and a half of trading, the S&P is down 4%. 4% is just gargantuan for the S&P. That takes it all the way back to June 2026 prices. Uh, but just like the the level of red on this candle, it it straight straight down. Straight down. And the QQQ NASDAQ is even worse because NASDAQ is just so heavily techoriented. Uh NASDAQ is down 6% taking it all the way back to April 2026 prices.
是的,我不得不不断更新我在S&P上的数据,但在过去仅一天半的交易时间里,S&P下跌了4%。对于S&P来说,4%的跌幅简直是巨大的。这使得指数完全回退到2026年6月的价格水平。嗯,但就像这根蜡烛图上红色的程度一样,它是直直地向下。直直地下跌。而QQQ纳斯达克的表现甚至更糟,因为纳斯达克的技术导向非常重。嗯,纳斯达克下跌了6%,使得指数完全回退到2026年4月的价格水平。
And then you can kind of zoom into specific sectors. Uh and so State Street tech sector ETF uh that's down at 7 7%. Semiconductors SOXX is down 12% just an index of semiconductors. And then we can get into some individual names like Nvidia. Nvidia down 8.6%, Intel down 7%. Not but not only is Intel down 7%, but Intel is off off of its all-time highs by 61%. MU Micron, just an AI uh buildout favorite, down 14% on the day, but also just down 45% from its all-time highs.
然后你可以将目光聚焦到特定板块。比如道富科技行业 ETF(State Street tech sector ETF)下跌了 7.7%。半导体 SOXX 指数下跌了 12%,这只是一个半导体指数。接着我们可以看一些个股,比如英伟达(Nvidia)。英伟达下跌 8.6%,英特尔(Intel)下跌 7%。不仅英特尔下跌了 7%,而且它距离历史高点已回落 61%。美光(MU Micron),作为 AI 建设的一个热门标的,当日下跌 14%,并且距离历史高点也下跌了 45%。
There are some assets that I think are getting buffered from this uh from this massive sell-off. Like Amazon is down 2% but on the week it's flat. You know, Google's down 1.5% but it hasn't gone down since it reported its earnings. Apple's actually doing okay. So, if you're an Apple hoarder, you're down 1.5% but you're at near all-time highs. So, the AI infrastructure buildout companies are just getting absolutely walloped. a lot of the AI spenders, uh, Amazon, Google, these aren't doing so bad even though the whole market is down this week.
我认为有一些资产正在从这次大规模抛售中缓冲出来。比如亚马逊(Amazon)下跌了 2%,但本周持平。你知道,谷歌(Google)下跌了 1.5%,但在其公布财报后就没有再跌过。苹果(Apple)的表现其实还不错。所以,如果你是苹果囤积者,你只下跌了 1.5%,但股价仍接近历史高点。因此,AI 基础设施建设公司遭受了猛烈打击,而许多 AI 支出方,如亚马逊、谷歌等,尽管整个市场本周下跌,但它们的表现并不差。
Uh, and so I think you could definitely say that this is AI bubble popping. Uh, as well as you have some uh, actual specific assets that are selling off specifically because of the Democrat blue wave and these would be all the Elon assets. So Tesla's down really really bad. I would say I would say still too early on this Thursday to call this an AI bubble pop. It does seem like a correction. Like will it you know turn into
嗯,所以我认为完全可以认为这是 AI 泡沫破裂。同时,还有一些特定的资产因为民主党蓝色浪潮(Democrat blue wave)而专门遭到抛售,这些就是所有的埃隆(Elon)相关资产。所以特斯拉(Tesla)跌得非常惨。我会说,在周四这个时候还断言这是 AI 泡沫破裂还为时过早。这看起来更像是一次回调。它会变成……
correcting though? Micron down 60%, Intel down 40% from its alltime highs.
……一次回调吗?美光下跌 60%,英特尔距离历史高点下跌 40%。
Absolutely. But the these sectors have had tremendous gains. I guess I guess in general we're back to what summertime in the S&P summertime in the NASDAQ.
绝对如此。但这些板块此前经历了巨大的涨幅。我想,总的来说,我们回到了标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数夏季时的状态。
Yeah. So if if you're an AI buildout like semi or like Micron doing selling memory, you're back as bad as possible, which is back to April. If you're a Google, if you're an Amazon, you're back to like June. Um
是的。所以,如果你是从事 AI 建设的,比如半导体或销售内存的美光,你的处境糟糕到了极点,回到了四月份的水平。如果你是谷歌,或者是亚马逊,你则回到了六月份的水平。嗯……
it's weird though. It's it's hard to um call the the the market reaction a result of the the blue wave really and the Democrats control of both um both chambers of of uh Congress because it was originally it was up, right? So like we had kind of a a runup. We had a very green day that everyone was like, "Oh, turns out like getting kicking Trump's chaos out of office is actually good for a variety of reasons that we can Thursday morning."
不过这很奇怪。很难将市场反应归因于蓝色浪潮以及民主党控制国会两院,因为最初市场是上涨的,对吧?所以我们经历了一波上涨。有一天市场表现非常强劲(绿色的一天),大家都觉得:“哦,事实证明,把特朗普的混乱赶下台出于各种理由对股市是有利的,我们在周四早上可以这么说。”
Everyone changed their mind. Everyone just suddenly changed their mind.
大家改变了主意。大家突然都改变了主意。
Yeah. Well, my attitude is that this is there was AI tech stock selloff going into the midterms and then midterms took center stage and we focus on that and now that midterms are in the rearview mirror, actually, people still want to sell tech stocks, I guess. So there there were some specific losers like uh you know Trump the Trump media asset was down like 30% even this was on the back of the election results. I wonder what it's at this morning.
是的。嗯,我的观点是,在中期选举前出现了一波AI科技股的抛售潮,随后中期选举成为焦点,我们也就把注意力集中在那上面。如今中期选举已成过去,但人们似乎仍然想抛售科技股。因此,有一些特定的下跌标的,比如你知道的,特朗普的媒体资产跌幅高达30%,即便是在选举结果出炉的背景下。我想知道它今天早上是多少。
And then there's also the Trump memecoin. Don't look at that chart. That chart is down 30% uh post the uh blue wave. Uh and so and as I kind of said like Tesla and SpaceX uh while everything else was rallying post uh midterms, Tesla SpaceX were down bigly just because Democrats are going after Elon. So there there were specific assets that did respond as you would expect them to to the blue wave. Uh overall though, you can kind of just look at the AI industry and see that the AI buildout assets have been down the most.
还有特朗普的模因币(memecoin)。别看那个图表了。在大选呈现蓝色浪潮后,该图表下跌了30%。正如我之前提到的,特斯拉和SpaceX的情况也是如此:当其他资产在中期选举后普遍反弹时,特斯拉和SpaceX却大幅下跌,仅仅因为民主党人正在针对埃隆·马斯克。因此,确实有一些资产按照预期对蓝色浪潮做出了反应。不过总体而言,你可以看看AI行业,发现AI建设相关的资产跌幅最大。
All right, so AI markets in carnage. Let's talk about our beloved crypto assets because it seemed like on Wednesday we were out of the woods. We just survived this Binance hack. Somehow someway we we were above on Bitcoin the 50we moving average which has been a key. We're in early bull cycle territory. We somehow stayed
好吧,所以AI市场一片狼藉。让我们谈谈我们钟爱的加密资产,因为周三的时候我们似乎已经渡过了难关。我们刚刚挺过了这次币安被黑客攻击的事件。不知怎么的,我们在比特币50日均线之上,这一直是一个关键指标。我们处于早期牛市周期领域。我们 somehow 保持了
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力