Bloomberg：AI数据中心监管担忧引发全球股市抛售与仓位出清
UK & Europe Avoid Worst of Stock Rout
直击当前全球市场核心矛盾：AI叙事退潮引发的流动性踩踏与仓位调整。内容提供了机构视角下的市场微观结构分析（双重挤压、资金费率），对理解短期波动机制极具参考价值。
NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE WITH FRANCINE LACQUA." FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME. I'M FRANCINE LACQUA. EUROPEAN STOCKS HAVE JOINED A GLOBAL SELLOFF. IT COMES AMID GROWING CONCERN IN THE U.S. WILL TIGHTEN REGULATION ON THE AI A DATA CENTER INDUSTRY. LET'S BRING IN PAUL DOBSON. IT HAS BEEN QUITE A RIDE. HOW AND WHY HAS THE STOCKS SELLOFF SNOWBALLED SINCE YESTERDAY? PAUL: GOOD MORNING. IT CERTAINLY HAS FADED -- HAS.
新闻人物与市场动向。这是《Francine Lacqa脉搏》。Francine：早上好，欢迎收看。我是Francine Lacqa。欧洲股市加入了全球抛售行列。这发生在美国可能加强对人工智能和数据中心行业监管的担忧日益加剧之际。让我们请出Paul Dobson。行情起伏确实很大。自昨天以来，股市抛售为何以及如何像滚雪球一样扩大？Paul：早上好。行情确实已经回落——已经。
WE MOVED FROM THIS KIND OF ROTATION TRADE INTO A FULL ONE ALMOST SELL EVERYTHING MENTALITY , THAT INDISCRIMINATE SELLING WHICH REALLY HIT US ACROSS ALMOST THE WHOLE ASIA REGION TODAY. WHAT STARTED OFF WAS THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. THE CONCERN THAT DEMOCRATS COMING INTO POWER, GOVERNORS OF STATES, AS WELL AS AND SENATE AND CONGRESS WOULD SCRUTINIZE THE BUILDUP OF AI DATA CENTERS. BY BLOOMBERG CALCULATIONS, MORE AS A RESULT.
我们从这种板块轮动交易转向了几乎卖出一切的全面抛售心态，这种无差别的抛售今天实际上重创了我们整个亚洲地区。起初引发关注的是中期选举。人们担心民主党上台后，州长以及参议院和国会将对人工智能数据中心的建设进行审查。根据彭博的计算，结果将是更多的[影响/损失]。
THAT SENT PEOPLE WORRIED ABOUT THE AI ALREADY FALLING QUITE HEAVILY. I THINK WHAT HAPPENED IS WHILE WE WERE LOOKING AT THE ROTATION TRADE, THE PROBLEM IS A LOT OF THE FAVORITE LONGS IN THE RALLYING. THAT CAUSED THE DOUBLE SQUEEZE POSITION THAT SEEM TO HAVE HURT A LOT OF THE STREET AND THE LAST 24 HOURS, WE'VE HAD REPORTS OF A NUMBER OF HEDGE FUNDS WINDING DOWN POSITIONS, GIVING THAT CASH TO INVESTORS. IT SEEMS TO HAVE TRANSFORMED ALMOST FROM A FUNDAMENTAL SELLOFF BASED ON THE NEWS AROUND THE DATA CENTERS TO MORE OF A POSITIONING FLUSH OUT.
这让人们对已经大幅下跌的人工智能感到担忧。我认为发生的情况是，当我们观察板块轮动交易时，问题在于许多在反弹中备受青睐的多头仓位。这导致了双重挤压，似乎在过去24小时内伤害了许多华尔街机构。我们有报道称，多家对冲基金正在平仓，将现金返还给投资者。这似乎已从基于数据中心相关新闻的基本面抛售，转变为更多是一种持仓清理。
THERE HAS BEEN A HARM THROUGH CROWDED POSITIONS IN SOME PARTS OF THE MARKETS. FRANCINE: BASICALLY, IT WAS STARTED BY AI BUT IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT AI. PAUL: NOT JUST ABOUT AI, NO. YOU CAN SEE THAT IN THE BREADTH IN ASIA TODAY. TODAY. A VERY WIDESPREAD. NOT JUST THOSE TECH MARKETS, ALTHOUGH THEY CAME INTO CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE. BUT ALSO, THE LIGHTER VERSIONS IN AUSTRALIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA. EQUALLY DOWN TODAY FOR THE WORST DAY IN ASIAN MARKETS SINCE APRIL LAST YEAR.
市场某些部分的拥挤仓位遭受了损害。Francine：基本上，它由人工智能引发，但不仅仅关乎人工智能。Paul：不仅仅关乎人工智能，没错。你今天可以在亚洲市场的广度中看到这一点。今天，影响非常广泛。不仅仅是那些科技市场，尽管它们承受了相当大的压力。还包括澳大利亚和东南亚较轻版本的指数。今天同样下跌，这是自去年四月以来亚洲市场最糟糕的一天。
THERE WERE MANY POCKETS OF RESILIENCE. INDIA, WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST VULNERABLE MARKETS TO THE AI BUILDOUT SUDDENLY CATCHING A BID BOTH IN THE RUPEE AND ON THE STOCK MARKET. U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS AND JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS HAVING A SLIGHTLY DECENT DAY. PEOPLE LOOKING FOR SOMEWHERE TO HIDE, LOOKING JUST A RETAINED THEIR CAPITAL RATHER THAN LOOKING FOR A RETURN IN WHAT HAS BEEN A HEFTY DOWN MOVE. FRANCINE: I KNOW SOME OF THE BIG BANKS, BARCLAYS PUT OUT A PIECE OF RESEARCH SAYING MAY BE THE INDISCRIMINATE SELLING AT THE MOMENT LOOKS OVERDONE.
存在许多具有韧性的区域。印度一直是受人工智能建设突然加速影响最脆弱的市场之一，如今在卢比汇率和股市上都出现了买盘。美国国债和日本国债表现稍好。人们正在寻找避风港，寻求保全资本，而不是在如此大幅下跌的市场中寻找回报。Francine：我知道一些大型银行，比如巴克莱发布了一份研究报告，称目前的无差别抛售可能有些过度。
WHAT SHOULD WE BE LOOKING OUT FOR NEXT? WHAT COULD THE BOTTOM BE? PAUL: YEAH. THIS IS THE $64,000 QUESTION. IN THE IMMEDIATE FOREGROUND, WE HAVE THE PAYROLLS DATA BUT WHAT EVERYONE IS WONDERING IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH ANTHROPIC IPO. IS THAT GOING TO GO AHEAD, IS IT GOING TO GET SCALED BACK, IS IT GOING TO GET CANNED? IF IT GETS CANNED, IS THAT MORE OF A CAPITULATION TRIGGER OR WHAT THE MARKET IS LOOKING FOR TO CLEAN THE DECK?
接下来我们应该关注什么？底部会在哪里？保罗：是的。这是那个价值64000美元的问题。在眼前，我们有就业数据，但每个人都在想知道Anthropic的IPO会发生什么。它会如期进行吗？会缩减规模吗？还是会取消？如果被取消，这会是更多投降信号还是市场正在寻找清理局面的契机？
I THINK THE OTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR IS THIS WAY WE ARE SEEING IN OF THE HEDGE FUND REDEMPTIONS AND HOW MUCH FURTHER THAT CAN GO AND HOW MUCH OF IT IS ALREADY DONE. YOU WILL NOT WAIT AROUND IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HAVE A TAP ON THE SHOULDER ALREADY. THAT WOULD PRESUMABLY BE A CAPITULATION TRADE AT SOME POINT AND THEN WE CLEAR OUT. DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN WE REBOUND BUT AT LEAST WE STABILIZE. FRANCINE: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR ALL OF THE BRIEFING.
我认为另一个需要关注的是我们看到的对冲基金赎回情况，以及这种赎回还能持续多少，以及已经完成了多少。如果你指望有人拍拍你的肩膀来提示你，那你不会干等。那大概会在某个时候成为投降交易，然后我们会清空仓位。这不一定意味着我们会反弹，但至少我们会稳定下来。弗朗辛：非常感谢所有的简报。
PAUL DOBSON, BLOOMBERG EXECUTIVE EDITOR FOR ASIAN MARKETS. HOPES THAT THE U.S. MENTOR MIGHT EASE MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS GIVE A LITTLE BIT TOO LATE FOR THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHICH PUSHED AHEAD WITH ITS FIRST INTEREST RATE HIKE IN OVER A TWO YEARS. FOR MORE, WE ARE JOINED BY BNP PARIBAS GROUP CHIEF ECONOMIST. THIS MASSIVE SELLOFF AND GLOBAL TURMOIL SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MIDTERMS, HOW MUCH DO WE NEED TO SETTLE ON THE IMPACT THAT THIS COULD HAVE ON THE ECONOMY IF AI SPENDING SLOWS DOWN?
保罗·多布森，彭博亚洲市场执行编辑。希望美国导师能缓解中东紧张局势，但这对于英格兰银行来说可能有点太晚了，因为它推进了两年多来的首次加息。为了了解更多，我们与法国巴黎集团首席经济学家连线。在这次大规模抛售和全球动荡中，当你审视中期选举时，如果AI支出放缓，这对经济的影响我们需要做出多大程度的评估？
ISABELLE: THERE ARE SO MANY THINGS TO UNPACK SINCE THIS ELECTION. YOU CAN SEE THE MARKET BOUNCING BETWEEN DIFFERENT NARRATIVES. THE FIRST POINT IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU MENTIONED, IS WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE PROSPECT OF HAVING LOWER OIL PRICES REALLY SOON OR MUCH HIGHER OIL PRICES REALLY SOON? NOBODY KNOWS. ON DAY ONE AFTER THE ELECTIONS, THE MARKETS REJOICED AND EVERYTHING RALLIED AS OIL PRICES FELL.
伊莎贝尔：自从这次选举以来，有太多事情需要梳理。你可以看到市场在不同的叙事之间波动。第一点正是你提到的，这对中东意味着什么，以及很快会有更低油价的前景，或者很快会有更高油价的前景？没人知道。选举后的第一天，市场欢欣鼓舞，随着油价下跌，一切都在反弹。
THE REST OF THE WEEK, PEOPLE REALIZED WE STILL DON'T REALLY KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN SO THIS AI SLOW DOWN NARRATIVE INITIALLY WAS VERY AI AND TECH FOCUSED. IT IS ONLY YESTERDAY THAT YOU SAW THE EQUAL WEIGHTED S&P AND EVERYTHING ELSE SELL OUT. FOR ME, I AM NOT AN EQUITY STRATEGIST, JUST A MACROECONOMISTS BUT NOTHING FUNDAMENTAL HAS CHANGED IN THE UNDERLYING MACRO ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS. SO, MY SENSE IS THE MARKET'S REPRICING, PEOPLE ARE HAVING TO READJUST THEIR PORTFOLIOS SO YOU SEE THESE LARGE MOVES.
本周余下时间，人们意识到我们仍然不知道会发生什么，所以最初AI放缓的叙事非常专注于AI和技术领域。直到昨天，你才看到等权重标普500指数和其他一切都在抛售。对我来说，我不是股票策略师，只是宏观经济学家，但底层宏观经济基本面没有任何变化。所以，我的感觉是市场正在重新定价，人们不得不调整他们的投资组合，所以你看到了这些大幅波动。
I DON'T SEE THE FUNDAMENTAL UNDERPINNINGS HAVING CHANGED VERY MUCH A PART FROM THE FACT THAT INVESTMENT AND DATA CENTERS IS PROBABLY GOING TO SLOW DOWN BUT SHOULD THAT IMPACT THE ENTIRE ECONOMY, PROBABLY NOT. IN FACT -- THAT IS MY OPTIMISTIC SIDE SPEAKING, BUT WE WERE HEADING TOWARDS MORE AND MORE SKEWED GROWTH PATTERN IN THE U.S. BUT ALSO IN SOME OTHER ECONOMIES WHERE IT WAS EVERYTHING AI. IN FACT, CROWDING OUT INVESTMENT AND GROWTH IN THE REST OF THE ECONOMY SO MAYBE WE ARE REBALANCED A BIT.
我认为根本基础并没有发生太大变化，除了投资和数据中心的增长可能会放缓这一事实。但如果这影响到整个经济，可能并不会。事实上——这是我乐观的一面在说话，但我们正朝着美国以及其他一些经济体中日益失衡的增长模式发展，那里的一切都围绕AI。事实上，这会挤出经济其他领域的投资和增长，所以也许我们正处于重新平衡的过程中。
MAYBE THAT SLOWDOWN IS HELPFUL FROM A BROADER STANDPOINT. FRANCINE: TWO WEEKS AGO, WE SPOKE TO LARRY FINK AND HE SAID IF THERE WAS GOING TO BE A SLOWDOWN IN AI, THE U.S. WILL LOOK AT A RECESSION. AT THE TIME, WE THOUGHT IT WAS A LITTLE OVERBLOWN. WE KNOW THAT THE U.S. GROWTH DEPENDS A LOT ON THE BUILD OUT OF AI BUT COULD WE SEE AT SOME POINT THE U.S. FACING A DOWNTURN? ISABELLE: I WOULD NEVER DARE TO DISAGREE WITH LARRY FINK.
从更广泛的视角来看，这种放缓或许是有益的。弗朗辛：两周前，我们与拉里·芬克进行了对话，他表示如果AI出现放缓，美国经济将面临衰退。当时我们认为这有些夸大其词。我们知道美国的增长在很大程度上依赖于AI的基础设施建设，但在某个时刻，美国是否会面临下滑？伊莎贝尔：我绝不敢与拉里·芬克持不同意见。
BUT, DON'T FORGET THAT A LOT OF THIS AI SPENT IN THE U.S. IS ACTUALLY IMPORTS. SO, IT IS NOT IMPACTING U.S. PRODUCTION. IT IS ACTIVE -- IMPACTING KOREAN, JAPANESE, BUT MUCH LESS. BY OURR CALCULATION, THE CONTRIBUTION OF AI TO U.S. GROWTH IS MAY BE AT MOST 1% OUT OF A LITTLE ABOVE 2%. WHAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT -- IT IS NOT JUST THE BUILDING OF DATA CENTERS AND THE INVESTMENT, IT MARKET GAINS. HERE, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT.
但别忘了，美国在AI上的大量支出实际上是进口。因此，它并未影响美国的生产。它主要影响的是韩国、日本，但程度较轻。根据我们的计算，AI对美国增长的贡献最多约为1%，而总增长率略高于2%。真正重要的是——不仅仅是数据中心建设和投资，还有市场收益。在这方面，这一点非常重要。
DO WE SEE THE S&P 493 PICK UP STEAM EVEN IF THE TECH SECTOR SLOWS DOWN, OR DO WE SEE THE STOCK MARKET CONSISTENTLY LOWER, NOT GENERATING RETURNS? THEN, YOU COULD SEE A HEADWIND TO CONSUMPTION BUT FOR ME, THAT IS OF THE BASE CASE. FRANCINE: WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTATION FOR U.S. JOBS? ARE WE GOING TO SEE A DIFFERENT FED NOW THAT MAYBE THEY ARE NOT SO MUCH THE FOCUS OF THE PRESIDENT? OR THEY COULD BE. ISABELLE: THERE ARE SO MANY UNKNOWNS.
即使科技板块放缓，我们是否看到标普500（S&P 500）重拾动力，还是看到股市持续低迷，无法产生回报？随后，你可能会看到消费面临逆风，但对我来说，这是基准情形。弗朗辛：你对美国就业情况的预期是什么？美联储现在是否会发生变化，因为他们的关注点可能不再像总统那样集中？或者他们确实会如此。伊莎贝尔：存在太多的不确定性。
THE JOBS NUMBERS WE ARE GOING TO GET THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT GOING TO BE REFLECTING ANYTHING OF THE MARKET MOVES OF THE RECENT DAY. WE THINK THE ECONOMY, AT LEAST AS FAR AS REFLECTED IN THIS JOBS NUMBER IS STILL VERY SOLID. WE ARE IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS, EXPECTING AROUND 79,000 JOB CREATIONS. MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE EXACT PRINT IS WHAT'S HAPPENING TO THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FROM THE STANDPOINT OF THE FED. HERE, WE ARE EXPECTING A FURTHER DECLINE TO 4.1%.
我们今天下午将公布的就业数据并不能反映近期市场的任何变动。我们认为，至少从这份就业数据所反映的情况来看，经济依然非常强劲。我们符合市场共识，预计新增就业岗位约为79,000个。相比具体的数值，从美联储的角度来看，失业率的变化更为重要。在此方面，我们预计失业率将进一步下降至4.1%。
I THINK THAT IS THE IMPORTANT METRIC FOR THE FED TO LOOK AT IN TERMS OF THE RISK OF SECOND ROUND EFFECTS AND INFLATION PRESSURES COMING FROM THE LABOR MARKET, WHICH SO FAR HAS NOT REALLY BEEN THE CASE. IN TERMS OF WHAT THE FED DOES NEXT, I THINK ONE VERY BIG UNKNOWN RIGHT NOW IS WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO FISCAL POLICY? THERE IS A NARRATIVE OUT THERE AND I AM NOT A POLITICAL ANALYST, BUT I FIND THIS NARRATIVE PRETTY COMPELLING THAT THE ONLY WAY FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE DEMOCRATS TO REACH AN AGREEMENT THAT KEEPS THE GOVERNMENT IS OPEN -- OPEN IS BY ADDITIONAL SPENDING.
我认为这是美联储在评估来自劳动力市场的第二轮效应风险和通胀压力时应关注的重要指标，而迄今为止这种情况并未真正发生。至于美联储下一步会怎么做，目前一个非常大的未知数是财政政策将如何演变？外界有一种叙事，我不是政治分析师，但我觉得这种叙事相当有说服力：特朗普总统和民主党人达成维持政府运转的协议的唯一途径——保持开放——是通过增加额外支出。
IF WE GET AN EXTRA 1%, 1.5% OF GDP OF FISCAL SPENDING, OBVIOUSLY THE FED WILL NEED TO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH EXTRA STEAM THIS GIVES TO THE ECONOMY. IF I WERE THEM, I WOULD THINK WE NEED TO RUN A MUCH TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY, SO MAYBE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO RATE HIKES ON TOP OF THE TWO WE ARE EXPECTING. FRANCINE: WE ALSO SPOKE -- WE HAD A HAWKISH HIKE FROM THE BOE YESTERDAY. A LOT MORE HAWKISH IN THE MARKE
如果我们获得占GDP额外1%、1.5%的财政支出，显然美联储在考虑这将为经济注入多少额外动力时，必须将其纳入考量。如果我是他们，我会认为我们需要实行更紧缩的货币政策，因此可能在我们预期的两次加息基础上再加息一两次。弗朗辛：我们还谈到——昨天英国央行进行了一次鹰派加息。市场中的鹰派情绪要多得多
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