美股遭重挫半导体指数跌近11%共和党中期选举失利成导火索
Republican Blame Game Starts
本次行情由明确的政治事件驱动，且波及核心资产与宏观预期。半导体板块跌幅创疫情后新高，数据详实，对关注政策风险与科技周期的投资者具有直接参考价值。
THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER," WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: ELECTION NIGHT IS STILL ECHOING ON WALL STREET, IN THE WORST WAY. WELCOME TO THE THURSDAY EDITION AS TECH STOCKS PLUNGE WITH WORRIES THAT DATA CENTERS WILL STOP OPENING UNTIL DEMAND FOR CHIPS. I'M JOE MATHIEU IN WASHINGTON. KAILEY LEINZ IS IN NEW YORK. THIS MANIC MARKET HAS BEEN TOUGH TO FOLLOW. KAILEY: IT SEEMS LIKE IT IS JUST NOW SINKING INTO MARKETS WHAT THE DEMOCRATIC VICTORY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT MIGHT MEAN FOR THE BUILDOUT OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE THAT HAS POWERED THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BOOM.
这是《权力平衡》，由乔·马修和凯莉·莱因茨主持。乔：选举之夜的回响仍在华尔街以糟糕的方式持续。欢迎收看周四版节目，随着人们担心数据中心将停止开放直至芯片需求恢复，科技股暴跌。我是驻华盛顿的乔·马修。凯莉·莱因茨在纽约。这场疯狂的市场行情一直难以把握。凯莉：似乎直到此刻，市场才开始消化周二晚上的民主党胜利可能意味着什么，即对推动人工智能繁荣的基础设施建设的影响。
YOU ARE SEEING THAT NOWHERE MORE THAN CHIPS STOCKS. THIS COULD BE THE WORST DAY GOING BACK TO THE COVID CRASH OF 2020. JOE: IT IS HARD TO BEAT YOUR HEAD AROUND THIS AFTER SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE AND IMPRESSIVE RALLY YESTERDAY. YOU ARE WITH CHARLIE IN THE NEW YORK, HE WILL UP TO THE MARKET SPIRIT NORAH MULINDA WILL JOIN US. JOSH WINGROVE. THE PRESIDENT, THE STOCK MARKET IS THE ONE HE TRUSTS. KAILEY: THE GOLDEN GOOSE. WE WILL ALSO SPEAK WITH DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSWOMAN DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ ABOUT HOW MUCH THE MARKETS MAY HAVE TO FEAR FROM HER AND HER COLLEAGUES, THE INCOMING DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY.
你在芯片股上看到了这一点。这可能是自2020年疫情崩盘以来最糟糕的一天。乔：在经历了昨天如此猛烈且令人印象深刻的反弹之后，很难理解这一切。你正在与纽约的查理连线，他将带来市场情绪的最新动态，诺拉·穆林达也将加入我们的节目。乔什·温格罗夫。总统认为股市是他信任的唯一指标。凯莉：那是“金鹅”。我们还将采访民主党众议员黛比·瓦瑟曼·舒尔茨，探讨市场和她的同事们——即将成为多数党的民主党人——可能给市场带来多大的恐惧。
JOE: I THINK WE WILL END UP HAVING TO DRAW THE LINE BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND STATE GOVERNMENTS. DO YOU THINK THIS NEW CONGRESS WILL CHANGE THE WORLD THAT DRAMATICALLY WHEN IT COMES TO AI REGULATION? THAT IS A VERY DIFFERENT PROSPECT THAN A GOVERNOR IN TEXAS WHO MIGHT HAVE A VERY DIRECT IMPACT ON THE STATE LIKE TEXAS' ABILITY TO BRING IN DATA CENTERS. WE WILL TRY TO FIND THE TRUTH. KAILEY: I AM SURE MARKETS WILL BE CURIOUS ABOUT THE INSIGHTS.
乔：我认为我们最终不得不在华盛顿政府和州政府之间划清界限。你认为新一届国会在人工智能监管方面会如此剧烈地改变世界吗？这与德克萨斯州州长可能对州产生非常直接的影响形成鲜明对比，例如德克萨斯州吸引数据中心的能力。我们将努力探寻真相。凯莉：我相信市场对这些见解充满好奇。
WE ARE SEEING THE SELLOFF GAINING STEAM AS THE SESSION CHARLIE PELLETT AT WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK. YOU ARE SEEING A LOT OF RIGHT ON YOUR SCREEN. CHARLIE: THE GPI SCREEN ON THE S&P 500 INDEX TELLS ME WE ARE AT THE LOWS OF THE SESSION. WE WILL BEGIN WITH WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE SOCKS. IT SPEAKS VOLUMES. THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX IS PLUNGING BY 11%. MADE UP OF 30 MEMBERS -- ALL 30 IN THE RED.
随着交易进行，抛售势头正在增强。查理·佩莱特在世界总部（位于纽约）为您报道。你的屏幕上会出现大量红色。查理：标普500指数的GPI屏幕显示我们正处于本交易日的低点。我们将从袜子（socks，此处疑为口误或特定术语，结合上下文应为半导体相关）的情况开始说起。这说明了大量信息。费城证券交易所半导体指数暴跌11%。该指数由30家成员组成——全部30家均为下跌。
THE DOW, S&P AND NASDAQ DECLINING. THE S&P IS NOW DOWN BY 4%. A MAJOR SELLOFF TODAY. DOW INDUSTRIALS DOWN 3.1%. DOWN BY 1600-PLUS POINTS. YESTERDAY WE SAW THE DOW RALLYING BY 1500. THE S&P DOWN 4%. NASDAQ DOWN 5.3%. NASDAQ 100 DOWN 5.9%. PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX DOWN 10.9%. THE VIX CLOSING IN ON 27. THE 10 YEAR AT 4.81%. CRUDE COULD HAVE BEEN A MAJOR STORY ANY OTHER DAY. SURGING BY 2.5%. $90.27 A BARREL. BRENT, $97.33.
道琼斯、标普和纳斯达克均下跌。标普现在下跌4%。今日出现大规模抛售。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌3.1%，下跌超过1600点。昨天我们看到道琼斯上涨1500点。标普下跌4%。纳斯达克下跌5.3%。纳斯达克100下跌5.9%。费城半导体指数下跌10.9%。VIX恐慌指数逼近27。10年期国债收益率报4.81%。原油在任何其他日子都可能是主要故事。它飙升2.5%，每桶90.27美元。布伦特原油为97.33美元。
NORAH MULINDA WILL HAVE A LOT EMBLEMATIC OF WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH SHIP NAMES. ARM HOLDINGS ALSO REPORTED LAST NIGHT. THE STOCK DOWN BY 12.4%. S&P LOWER BY 4.1%. JOE AND KAILEY, THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. KAILEY: WE WILL CHECK IN WITH CHARLIE PERIODICALLY AS WE TRACK THIS BRUISING SELLOFF, THE WORST WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEMI CONDUCTORS GOING BACK TO THE COVID ERA IN MARCH OF 2020. THIS IS THE WORST PERFORMANCE WE HAVE SEEN ON ANY DAY GOING BACK TO LIBERATION DAY IN APRIL OF LAST YEAR, WHICH OF COURSE WAS THE START OF TARIFFS ON A NUMBER OF TRADING PARTNERS.
诺拉·穆林达将见证许多具有象征意义的事件，这与当前船舶命名领域的动态密切相关。ARM Holdings 昨晚也发布了报告。其股价下跌了 12.4%。S&P 指数下跌了 4.1%。乔和凯利，这是一则彭博商业快讯。凯利：我们将定期与查理连线，以追踪这场惨烈的抛售行情。这是自 2020 年 3 月新冠疫情爆发以来，半导体行业遭遇的最糟糕表现。这也是自去年 4 月“解放日”（即对多个贸易伙伴开始征收关税之日）以来的任何单日中，我们见过的最糟糕的表现。
TARIFFS BEING ONE POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE LOSSES REPUBLICANS EXPERIENCED ON TUESDAY. IT IS THE LOSSES IN FEDERAL RACES AND STATE AND LOCAL RACES THAT HAVE THE MARKET WORRIED ABOUT THE IMPLICATIONS FOR AI AND DATA CENTERS. WE TURN BLOOMBERG CORRESPONDENT NORAH MULINDA, WHO IS HERE WITH ME AT WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK. I DO NOT KNOW WHERE TO BEGIN. THERE IS NOWHERE TO HIDE IT TODAY. WHAT CHANGED TODAY?
关税可能是导致共和党人在周二遭受损失的一个潜在因素。联邦选区以及州和地方选区的失利，让市场担忧其对人工智能（AI）和数据中心的潜在影响。我们现在转向彭博社驻纽约世界总部现场的记者诺拉·穆林达。我不知从何说起。今天已无处可藏。今天发生了什么变化？
NORAH: YESTERDAY WAS INTERESTING BECAUSE OF THE LOGIC WAS THE FACT THAT FEWER DATA CENTERS BUILT MEAN HYPERSCALERS CAN SPEND LESS. THE CONVERSATION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON CAPEX AND ALL THE SPENDING THE HYPERSCALERS ARE DOING. LESSON SPENDING COULD BE MORE FREE CASH FLOW. GOLDMAN POINTED -- HEDGE FUND BUYERS PARTICIPATING. TODAY WE ARE SEEING A DIFFERENT STORY. THIS IS A DISTINCTION THEY ARE BREAKING DOWN. MICROSOFT AND META HAVE ALSO BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THE SELLING.
诺拉：昨天很有趣，因为逻辑在于：数据中心建设减少意味着超大规模云厂商可以减少支出。此前的讨论一直集中在资本支出以及超大规模云厂商的所有开支上。更少的开支可能转化为更多的自由现金流。高盛指出——对冲基金买家正在参与。今天我们看到了不同的故事。这是一个他们正在拆解的区别。微软和 Meta 也被卷入抛售之中。
MAY BE YESTERDAY WAS A ROTATION WITH INTECH. TODAY SEEMS TO BE A BROAD SPREAD WITH NOT JUST CHIPMAKERS BUT THE REST OF THE MARKET. KAILEY: WHERE ARE PEOPLE HIDING? [LAUGHTER] NORAH: THAT IS AN INTERESTING QUESTION. IF YOU LOOK AT THE S&P 500, ALL 11 SECTORS ARE IN THE RED. WE CAN SAY ONE OF THE BETTER PERFORMING AREAS WHERE YOU ARE GETTING COVER IS CONSUMER STAPLES. STILL DOWN BY .4%. A NAME I'M WATCHING WITH INTECH, APPLOVIN OF 27%.
也许昨天是与英伟达相关的板块轮动。今天似乎是一场广泛的扩散，不仅涉及芯片制造商，还波及市场的其他部分。凯利：人们都躲到哪里去了？[笑声] 诺拉：这是个有趣的问题。如果你查看标普 500 指数，所有 11 个板块均为负收益。我们可以说，表现相对较好、能够提供一定避险功能的领域是必需消费品板块。该板块仍下跌了 0.4%。我正在关注英伟达之外的一个名字，AppLovin 上涨了 27%。
THIS COMES AFTER BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED RESULTS. PLATFORM. THAT IS HELPING TO EASE CONCERNS WE HAVE SEEN FROM THE COMPANY THAT IS DOWN 60%. A BIT OF A BRIGHT SPOT. WHEN YOU DIG INTO THE MAG 7 AND LOOK AT SOME NAMES THAT ARE STILL LOWER BUT NOT DOWN AS BADLY AS THEIR PEERS, APPLE IS DOWN 1.8%. A LOT OF FOLKS ON WALL STREET HAVE TALKED ABOUT THIS AS A POTENTIAL SAFE HAVEN. WHEN HE THINK ABOUT THE PHYSICAL AI INFRASTRUCTURE BUILD AND ALL THE SPENDING YOU DO NOT SEE APPLE CAUGHT UP IN THAT SPACE AS MUCH AS ITS PEERS.
这是在好于预期的业绩结果之后出现的。该平台的表现有助于缓解市场对该公司已下跌 60% 的担忧。这是一个亮点。当你深入观察“七巨头”（Mag 7），并查看一些仍然下跌但跌幅不及同行的公司时，苹果下跌了 1.8%。华尔街许多人将此视为潜在的避风港。当谈到物理 AI 基础设施的建设以及你所做的所有支出时，你会发现苹果并未像其同行那样深度卷入这一领域。
KAILEY: NORAH MULINDA, THANK YOU SO MUCH. YIELDS GETTING WAY LOWER AT THE SHORT END. FALLING 10 BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY. IF YOU ARE SEEING FINANCIAL CONDITIONS TIGHTEN, THE INFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF DATA CENTERS, MAYBE THE FED WILL NOT HAVE TO HIKE AS MUCH. JOE: AND IF YOU JUST GOT SHAKEN OUT OF THE MARKET BECAUSE YOU BOUGHT AT THE HIGH, 5% IS GOOD. I DID NOT HAVE APPLOVIN ON THE BINGO CARD TODAY. THANK YOU. WE TO CONTINUE THIS CONVERSATION HERE IN WASHINGTON.
凯利：诺拉·穆林达，非常感谢。短期收益率大幅下降，当日下跌10个基点。如果你看到金融条件收紧，数据中心带来的通胀效应，也许美联储不需要加息那么多。乔：如果你因为在高点买入而被震出市场，5%也是不错的收益。我今天没把阿普洛文（AppLovin）列入我的预测卡中。谢谢。我们继续在这里华盛顿进行这场对话。
JOSH WINGROVE JOINS US. I BEEN WATCHING TRUTH THE SOCIAL, HE IS NOT TALKING ABOUT THE MARKETS TODAY BUT I'M GUESSING THIS IS WHAT THE PRESIDENT EXPECTED AND MAYBE THERE IS AN "I TOLD YOU SO" COMING. JOSH: HE SEEMS FOCUSED ON OTHER THINGS. JOE: DID YOU GO TO THE BALLROOM? JOSH: I DID NOT HAVE THE PLEASURE. HE SIGNED "LOVE" ON IT. AFTER THIS SHELLACKING THE REPUBLICAN PARTY TOOK. JOE: WATCH THIS BEAM REALLY ECHO TO WATCH THIS DRIVE FOR GEORGE W.
乔什·温格罗夫加入我们。我一直在关注Truth Social，他今天没有谈论市场，但我猜这是总统所期望的，也许会有“我早就告诉过你”的情况出现。乔什：他似乎专注于其他事情。乔：你去宴会厅了吗？乔什：我没那个荣幸。他在上面签了“爱”。在这次共和党遭受重创之后。乔：看看这个回声，真的能听到乔治·W的驱动。
BUSH. THAT WAS THE ECHO OF THE MIDTERMS. JOSH: KEEPING YOUR PRINCIPAL HAPPY IS AN IMPORTANT WORK FOR POLITICAL STAFFERS. WHETHER THAT MEANS TROTTING THEM UP TO THE REFLECTING POOL OR THE BALLROOM RENOVATION. TRUMP IS UNUSUALLY SILENT RIGHT NOW. JOE: I GUESS THAT IS WHAT I'M TRYING TO EXPLAIN. JOSH: THE MARKETS, AND ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE. THE PROVERBIAL BOMB THAT JUST WENT OFF ON HIS COALITION. JOE: BARELY MENTIONED IT IN FRONT OF REPORTERS.
布什。那是中期选举的回声。乔什：让主要人物开心是政治工作人员的重要工作。无论是带他们去倒影池还是宴会厅装修。特朗普现在异常沉默。乔：我想这就是我要解释的。乔什：市场，以及几乎所有其他事情。他那联盟刚刚爆炸的那颗众所周知的炸弹。乔：在记者面前几乎没提到它。
JOSH: SPOKE ALOUD THE NOTION THAT JD VANCE MIGHT NOT RUN AGAIN. JOE: YES. JOSH: STOPPED WELL, WELL, WELL SHORT OF ENDORSING VANCE IS DOING SO. HE HAS TO BE THE FRONT-RUNNER. 'S POST YESTERDAY RAISE A LOT OF EYEBROWS. IT HAS BEEN GETTING PEOPLE GOING BACK AND FORTH. FOX NEWS THIS MORNING, WHICH THE PRESIDENT WATCHES FAITHFULLY, NOT TAKING A LIKING TO VANCE'S FRAMING OF THAT. A LOT OF SWIRLING IN THE MAGA MOVEMENT. JOE: IT WOKE UP TED CRUZ WITH A 30- RESPONSE.
乔什：大声说出了JD万斯可能不再竞选的想法。乔：是的。乔什：远远没有达到支持万斯这样做。他必须是领跑者。昨天的帖子引起了很多人的关注。让人们来回争论。福克斯新闻今天早上，总统忠实观看，不喜欢万斯的这种框架。MAGA运动中有很多争议。乔：特德·克鲁兹用30秒的反应醒了过来。
I THOUGHT TWITTER WAS THE SHORT FORM. JOSH:. TED ALSO PUT OUT -- WE ARE SEEING TEASERS OF WHAT MIGHT BE THE TRUMP '28 MESSAGE. VANCE PUT OUT A LONG TWITTER THREAT AS WELL. TED CRUZ PUT OUT A PODCAST. CRUZ, BOTH OF THEM HAD ROUGH NIGHTS ON TUESDAY. CRUZ, ACTIVELY RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, OR THAT IS WHAT JD VANCE ACCUSED HIM OF. STATEWIDE REPUBLICAN IN TEXAS AFTER THIS SHOCK ELECTION ON TUESDAY. IT COMPLICATES HIS PATH IF HE WANTS TO RUN FOR SOMETHING.
我以为Twitter是短形式。乔什：. 特德也发布了——我们正在看到可能是特朗普28年信息的预告。万斯也发布了一条长长的Twitter威胁。特德·克鲁兹发布了一个播客。克鲁兹，他们俩在周二晚上都度过了艰难的夜晚。克鲁兹，积极竞选总统，或者那是JD万斯指控他的。在周二这次震惊选举后，得克萨斯州的全州共和党人。如果他想要竞选某个职位，这会让他道路复杂化。
VANCE TRYING TO DISTANCE HIMSELF WHAT THE PRESIDENT. WHAT TRUMP THINKS ABOUT THAT AND IF VANCE CAN DO IT AND GET AWAY WITH IT IS AN OPEN QUESTION. EVERYONE IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE THEY WILL GO RIGHT NOW. WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF REPUBLICANS WHO HAVE STAYED SILENT EMERGING FOR THEIR "I TOLD YOU SO" MOMENT, WHETHER THAT IS RON DESANTIS IN FLORIDA. PAT TOOMEY HITTING VANCE ON THE NOTION OF TARIFFS, SING REPUBLICANS YOU TO WAKE UP.
万斯正试图与总统划清界限。特朗普对此作何感想，以及万斯能否做到这一点并全身而退，仍是一个悬而未决的问题。大家都在努力弄清楚他们现在将何去何从。我们目睹了许多一直沉默的共和党人开始出来发表‘我早就说过了’的言论，无论是佛罗里达州的罗恩·德桑蒂斯，还是帕特·图米就关税问题抨击万斯，都在呼吁共和党人觉醒。
JOE: WE WILL BE SPEAKING UP WITH CONGRESSWOMAN DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ AND A SECOND. DOES HE HAVE TRAVEL PLANS? IS HE HUNKERED DOWN TO DEAL WITH A LAME-DUCK SESSION? JOSH: WE HAVE NOT HEARD ABOUT TRAVEL PLANS. WE WILL SEE IN THE COMING DAYS. THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS, INCLUDING ON A GOVERNMENT LAME-DUCK. THERE HAS BEEN ONGOING TALK ABOUT CHINESE CARS AND WHETHER THAT COULD BE ITS OWN STANDA
乔：我们将与众议员黛比·瓦瑟曼·舒尔茨进行对话。他是否有出行计划？他是否正闭门不出以应对跛脚鸭会期？乔什：我们尚未听到关于出行计划的消息。我们将在未来几天拭目以待。目前存在许多疑问，包括政府跛脚鸭会期的问题。关于中国汽车的持续讨论也在进行中，这是否会成为一个独立的标准
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力