美国中期选举民主党横扫引发市场震荡与油价暴跌

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I want to bring in Joe Matthew right now, the co-host of Balance of Power. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio.

I mean, the backdrop is on on the market side is what Charlie just told us. The the backdrop on [clears throat] the political side, I think, is is one that even the pollsters who said this could be

a blue wave. even the prediction markets that said it's likely going to,

you know, be a a a a big advantage for Democrats. I don't think anyone saw just how much Democrats were afraid to say it out loud. You know, there might have been some some quiet conversations about the most extreme scenario which we got, but to see the shock wave in the markets last night, Danny Ber's on the wall looking at the NASDAQ 100 futures tumbled 2%, the NK open down 4%. And I thought, my god, uh, not only, okay, I can't believe we didn't get a we got a sweep and it came so early, but the markets are going to fall out of bed tomorrow and we've got the biggest rally we've seen in recent memory.

It's really amazing how the psychology changed overnight.

Did that happen to when um Donald Trump was first elected, we saw markets like drop.

We had a bit of a swoon and then then there was a long sort of staging rally. Yes, exactly. But, you know, it's interesting. Joel joined us earlier. He said, and I asked him about about the tariff uh trade, and he said, "If you think that's what this is, fade it because the president will still have the means to inflict uh tariffs through executive order, which is all he's done so far." And specifically, the ones that matter are going to be China.

I was kind of surprised at some of the big uh tech, the MAG 7, the Alphabets, the Metas uh go through at Microsoft, all of them. And part of it was thinking that okay, that maybe the data center build will slow down and that'll be an improvement for their balance sheets and the free cash flow that has all of a sudden gone negative. Like it's just what a contrarian trade,

right? A little twisted. Um what are you thinking about this new Congress and the interactions? Well, it's less than 24 hours ago and I still kind of can't believe it. I mean, the fact that it came so early for the House and the Senate to be called, but the way that it happened as well. Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Ohio, maybe Mississippi, they're 40 votes apart. The Democrat in the lead right now, by the way, if you're following that, uh, we did some homework today and there is no mechanism in the state of Mississippi for a recount.

Wow.

So, could this thing be called on 40? I don't know what we're in for here, but that also would be absolutely incredible. Um, you've got a blue state of Texas up and down the ballot. What are we talking about? So, it's not just uh, you know, the the couches and poly markets of the world were right. We re we saw the map redrawn last night. The reds and blues. It looks like somebody threw it up in the air and

gerrymandering that, you know, was a waste of time,

right?

Look, I guess so. A net gain maybe of one seat for Republicans, which started to take shape a couple of weeks ago. When you think of the money though and all the arm twisting, the the flights from DC to give me a break. It was for one seat. It's kind of amazing. And there'll probably be a a different thought next time they want to do kind of a midcycle gerrymander because that also turned people off and that it looked like you the rules were being changed in the middle of the game.

Yeah.

What is the identity of the Republican party moving forward after this? Gosh, that's that's a question definitely for somebody else because look, when you see headlines using the word extinction referring to MAGA, was that MAGA's last stand? I don't know. Does it do a different thing saying that, right? He liked that word and I saw that in a few places. Patrick Mckenry was on the air with us last night, former chairman, former speaker who said, uh,

this is a generational bloodbath, a generational what we call a hinge election. So, it's really hard to answer that. They've got two years to regroup. And look, Democrats could overextend. Are we going to see DSA progressive caucus members uh drawing articles of impeachment? We can make this crazy real quick if we want to. Uh and I'm not sure. Look, the president wants to break ground on an arch tomorrow, by the way.

That's what the planning commission looks at this. They want to they've got the cranes ready to go. So, this could be a really wild lame duck session and a wild uh new Congress, but Democrats think they have a mandate, and that's going to be the question. Democrats have a mandate to govern, or was that just a big middle finger to Donald Trump?

I don't know. But I do think about the one hammer that we kept beating is affordability. And so, if if the Republicans kind of miss that,

right, in this election, midterms, don't I mean, don't Democrats kind of have a responsibility? That was what voters wanted that that's what they've got to kind of

have to show something. The president says he wants to work with Democrats. That was interesting and and encouraging to hear last evening. He's also a couple days ago called himself Mr. Veto. So, I don't know. Will they be able to make a deal to move the needle on affordability? This is the same issue that Joe Biden lost and and Kla Harris lost an election on as well. Uh and the pendulum is swinging so quickly here, guys, the polls can barely keep up.

The the move in oil today is absolutely wild. I mean down 8% for Brent futures, 7.7% lower for WTI futures. Uh

the optimism that

I think the traders have that there will be some sort of resolution to the war in Iran might be leading to some of that decline. How much power does a Democratic House and Senate have in ending that conflict?

Well, I don't know if there's a lot. I mean, there was already a conversation in a move in the energy market before last night where prices were coming down on reports that we were closer to a deal. the president start acknowledging those reports. Maybe we're not going back to war the day after and we're not. We can't. Look, a lot of people thought bombs would be flying today. Um, you know, they're going to be war powers votes right off the bat, but the president probably won't acknowledge them unless this goes into the new Congress and there's a majority on the level, but we're not talking about a veto breaking majority here.

So, hold on for that. I think that probably has more to do with taking some profits here and hoping for a deal, which the president might be more compelled to make now cuz are you going to get a trillion half dollar Pentagon budget after last night?

Probably not. And that's going to have to be rewritten as well.

So, how quick are we going to know the priorities of now this Democrat Democratic Congress, if you will, in terms of initiatives that they want to push forward, maybe folks that they want to go after. Mhm.

I'm thinking about Pete Hexath in terms of whether or not we're going to see, you know, something with him. So, how quickly will we know that?

Well,