Bloomberg分析：中期选举失利对特朗普政府及共和党影响
This was 'Most Devastating Midterm Defeat' for a President in 68 years, Say Gautam Mukunda
So the scale of what's happened is almost hard to overestimate. I was texting that. I'm pretty sure Jon Ossoff made his first fundraising call for the president for his presidential campaign. 15 seconds after bottoms was declared the winner and the winner of the governorship in Georgia. Um, so the on the Democratic side, the the guns, the started got him just fired. And everyone is going to run because they're the I think every political analyst is going to say that there will never, ever be a more favorable race to run for a Democrat than 2028.
因此，所发生事件的规模几乎难以高估。我刚才还在发短信说这件事。我非常确定乔恩·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff）在佐治亚州州长选举结果揭晓后仅15秒，就为其总统竞选发起了首次筹款电话。嗯，所以在民主党方面，枪支问题导致他刚刚被解雇。每个人都会参选，因为我认为每位政治分析师都会表示，对于民主党候选人来说，2028年将永远是最有利的竞选时机。
On the Republican side, everyone who is tied to the Trump administration is just massively discredited because that this is this was a rebuke. This was the the most devastating midterm defeat for a president since in at least 68 years, that there is just nothing and no comparison for this in the voting memory of anyone. If I had it right now, if I had to think about how things shake out, I would bet you that Doug Ducey might be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination right now.
在共和党方面，所有与特朗普政府有关联的人都因这次选举而严重丧失信誉，因为这是一次否决。这是自至少68年来对一位总统最毁灭性的中期选举失败，在任何人的投票记忆中，没有任何事件能与之相提并论。如果我现在必须思考局势将如何演变，我会打赌道格·杜西（Doug Ducey）目前可能是共和党提名的领跑者。
Yeah. Still a loyal Republican endorse Trump, endorsed, you know, all the Republicans, but did the right thing in 2020. Didn't didn't fold under Trumpian pressure and no ties to the Iran war catastrophe. No ties to tariffs. Uh, probably able to fundraise very easily with major donors that if I were to bet on a Republican horse. He's the guy I bet on right now. Paul, jump in here. But you know, Paul, neighbors most free share within our huge computer system and the Bloomberg terminal.
是的。他仍然是一位忠诚的共和党人，曾支持特朗普，支持所有共和党人，但在2020年做了正确的事。他没有屈服于特朗普式的压力，也与伊朗战争灾难没有关联，与关税也没有关联。嗯，他可能能够非常轻松地通过主要捐赠者进行筹款。如果我要押注共和党人选，他现在是我押注的对象。保罗，请插话。但你知道，保罗，在我们庞大的计算机系统和彭博终端（Bloomberg terminal）中，邻居们分享得最多的是……
Douglas Anthony Doocy is the 23rd governor of Arizona. Oh, okay. Paul. Good. That speaks to the number one thing I observe here, which is the continued population shifts. Yeah, of America, two states and within the states as well. Absolutely. Gotham. The Democrats have this newfound power in Congress. What do they do with it? Investigations, investigations. The new head of the House Oversight Committee tweeted last night.
道格拉斯·安东尼·杜西（Douglas Anthony Doocy）是亚利桑那州第23任州长。哦，好的。保罗。很好。这印证了我在这里观察到的头号现象，即持续的人口迁移。是的，不仅在美国各州之间，在各州内部也是如此。绝对如此。哥谭（Gotham）。民主党在国会获得了这种 newfound power（新获得的权力）。他们会如何利用它？调查，还是调查。众议院监督委员会新任主席昨晚发推文称：
Two words lawyer up. And that's. That's going to be it. There are a bunch of policy issues that need to be dealt with. Um, they're going to, you know, they're going to try and force or Trump to de-escalate the Iran war. Uh, there's the, you know, the debt ceiling, the usual things, but it's impossible to predict, like how cooperative Trump will be on any of those. The rumors that were flying last night was that were that Susie Wiles was going to take the fall for this, and Stephen Miller was going to be the next chief of staff.
两个词：聘请律师。这就是全部。还有一堆政策问题需要处理。嗯，他们将试图迫使或促使特朗普降低伊朗战争的紧张局势。还有债务上限等常规问题，但要预测特朗普在这些问题上会多么配合是不可能的。昨晚流传的谣言是，苏茜·威尔斯（Susie Wiles）将为此次失败承担责任，而斯蒂芬·米勒（Stephen Miller）将成为下一任白宫幕僚长。
I find that hard to believe. But if that's the direction that they go, then, you know, then cooperation just becomes impossible. On the flip side, if he's sort of chastened by this and says, like, you know, there are ways to work together with Democrats, then a lot of things could happen. Can the Democrats actually, let's put it this way. Will the Republicans look at the results and say, all right, this sentiment out there is very, very strong.
我觉得这很难相信。但如果他们朝那个方向走，那么合作就变得不可能了。反过来，如果他因此受到一些教训，并表示可以和民主党人一起合作，那么很多事情都有可能发生。民主党人真的能做到吗？这么说吧，共和党人会看到结果并说，好吧，外面的情绪非常、非常强烈吗？
We need to start working with these Democrats to get some stuff done here to address some of these affordability issues, which and the other issues, whether it's in foreign policy. Um, you think that can happen? I mean, it can happen. What you have to do is look at the Republicans who are still standing. Right. And if you were in anything that vaguely resembled a swing district, you're now a dreamer. And I mean, if you're in a red state, you're now in a lot of cases, you are a Democrat.
我们需要开始与这些民主党人合作，在这里完成一些工作来解决一些可负担性问题，以及其他问题，无论是在外交政策方面。嗯，你认为这会发生吗？我的意思是，这是有可能的。你必须看看那些仍然站得住脚的共和党人。对。如果你在一个稍微有点像摇摆选区的地方，你现在就是一个‘梦想者’。我的意思是，如果你在一个红色州，在很多情况下，你实际上是一个民主党人。
My favorite statistic here is the last time Kansas elected a Democratic senator. That senator was born in the year the light bulb was invented. That's how far back we're going here. Oh. That's great. Um, so the core of, uh, what's left of the House Republicans and the core of the House House, uh, you know, uh, the Senate Republicans, these are pretty, pretty hardcore MAGA people. Um, their first response is not going to be, oh, gee, we should negotiate.
我最喜欢的一条统计数据是，堪萨斯州上次选举一位民主党参议员是什么时候。那位参议员出生在电灯泡发明的那一年。我们回溯得这么远。哦。太棒了。嗯，所以剩下的众议院共和党的核心和参议院共和党的核心，这些人都是非常坚定的MAGA人士。他们的第一反应不会是，哦，天哪，我们应该谈判。
Um, so it kind of depends where where Trump takes them. Just always brilliant. And I remember when my father brought home that first light bulb and we got him. And kind of thank you for having me feel old this morning is the Yale, Yale University.
嗯，所以在某种程度上取决于特朗普把他们带向何方。总是很精彩。我记得我父亲把第一个灯泡带回家时的情景，我们给他买了它。今天早上让我感觉自己变老的感觉，要感谢耶鲁大学。
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