美中期选举共和党惨败，北卡六席易主，油价回落

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. [music] This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on [music] Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch [music] us live on YouTube. Patrick Mckenry has been doing this out of his youth. I give him immense credit for starting young in the national political game.

I see uh I mean forever you're going to be congressman of Henry. Get over it. Of course uh head of international economics Paul uh uh with Bloomberg news. Patrick Mckenry I see Pat Harrian fighting for his life in the 10th district of North Carolina against Ashley Bell. I mean, right there it it is is is a shock alone. Describe how close that vote vote is in Hickory in the 10th and North Carolina district.

Um, hundreds of votes. Um, and it looks like Pat Harrian's a one of the rare Republican survivors in the congressional delegation in North Carolina. Uh what we do know is it confirmed six Republicans lost uh their congressional seats in North Carolina, including the rules committee chairman, my friend and and classmate uh Virginia Fox, who is a tenacious fighter on the campaign trail, and the chair of the congressional committee,

uh my friend, dear friend since since college, Richard Hudson. Uh he lost that Pinehurst base seat. He was the head of the House campaign committee for for Republicans. Devastating night for my party in North Carolina, the likes of which we've not seen since, frankly, 1996 when Jim Hunt, Governor Jim Hunt, the

legendary Democrat, was on the ballot. Um, you know, North Carolina didn't become a Republican state until 2010,

right?

Uh, this was a truly devastating night.

Patrick Mckenry, I look at this and I'm going to take it back. Somebody actually emailed me yesterday about Barbara Bconibal. Oh,

of Western New York who was one of the heroes of moving the Republican party forward after Watergate. Patrick Mckenry, how do Republicans in North Carolina and indeed across a traditional Republican landscape? How do they pick up the pieces? Do they await 2027 or can they start this Wednesday morning?

They have to start this Wednesday. you you have to register the message that the voters sent. Um and they sent a very clear message in North Carolina. Roy Cooper has won a nearly uh it's 18 to 19 point victory. His last polling had him up uh 10 points. He was a he was a elected five times statewide, never by a margin like this. But to [clears throat] the US Senate, he brings in um Democratic control. the state house, something he couldn't do as governor.

Um, you have to acknowledge what the voters have sent a message on, and it's not simply President Trump. It's a question of independence and actually delivering on your word and the principles you campaigned on. Um, and and you've got to go back to them and understand what they want and make sure you deliver for them.

Across America, we welcome all of you commercial free across the arc of Bloomberg surveillance this morning. a special post-election coverage with many, as John Tucker said, many of the contests including North Carolina 10 undecided right now. Tom Keane and Paul Sweeney, a great set of conversations as we look to Texas. Paul now North Carolina and the nation with Patrick Mckenry.

Absolutely, Tom. Uh Patrick, what is President Trump or how does the Republican party work with its president over the next two years given what just happened uh in the last 12 hours here? How does this party work with its president?

Well, long-term uh this president still has mastery over the Republican party. uh not just the mechanics of it uh but even at this stage where the president is not popular with the voting electorate. You heard that uh like a siren sound like 1994 1974. That is the magnitude of what we saw last night. But he still at this stage of the game is one of the most popular uh presidents Republicans have ever had within their own party. that gives him enormous stick to say you cannot run away from me even though we had a very very bad night.

The challenge is going to be in the short term because we've got to go back uh Congress has to go back to session uh next week for a lame for the rest of the lame duck. Uh you've got a a set of issues you have to wrestle with there. Uh and you're going to see this uh in the Senate. We knew this with uh the likes of Senator Tillis leaving the chamber. Um they're going to make their voices heard, but now we have this in the US House uh where you're going to see you see a group uh of we're sitting now at over 240 uh Democrats in the US House.

Uh this is a massive majority that the Democrats will have. A lot of people are going to lose their jobs and they're going to be out of their office off offices within days of returning back to Washington. The mood is going to be insanely sour for Republicans when they go back.

That's going to be the first speed hump, which is this first coming to grips that you had a job. You thought you had a job yesterday

until the votes started getting counted and now you've got them. You have got no job and

you have no staff and no office now in Washington.

Chairman, I want it is Jack. I make a joke about it, folks. He's congressman cuz I I think he started out running for office when he was 15. Exactly. I think it was something like that. He was chairman of the House Financial Services Committee looking at our military budget. Now, in this lame duck, I believe somehow we have to pay the sailors on board three aircraft carriers. We've got to play fighter pilots in Iran.

Give us a window into the debate in a lame duck session over defense appropriations.

Sure. You have the president asking for a trillion half dollars of new spending. Uh you have the secretary of defense uh who has uh faced impeachment charges in the House with a a few Republicans being willing to side with Democrats on those charges. Uh you have uh the senators that appointed him having buyer's remorse and wanting to take action against Pete Haggath. Um and at the same time you have a continued resolution that the government's operating under that expires December 11th.

Um and a defense policy initiative that we've passed successfully every single year since Truman was president called National Defense Authorization Act. This is tough. this confluence of events and election results makes it tough to pass uh the policy and the dollars to keep the government open. That's going to be the first pressure point. I think what will happen is a continued resolution. You'll not see a defense plus up uh but you'll see the defense policy NDAA bill get signed into law barely by Christmas because much of that can be by partisan and limited in nature.

So I think that's what we'll see. permitting reform is the next thing on the docket. Uh we'll see about the mood here among Democrats on whether or not they want to continue those negotiations.

Paul, on the oil barometer here, we're trying to bring the markets into the discussion this morning, folks. Brent crude down to 10196 down 64. Call that the Iran barometer post election.

I think you're right, Tom. Uh Patrick, give us a sense just with this, you know, 12 hours of kind of perspective here. What's the status of the MAGA movement within the Republican party?

Uh shaken uh shaken uh but um you know they didn't show up. I think the the key thing we see yesterday is that they didn't vote. Why didn't they vote? Is it a level of exhaustion or are they not a movement anymore? You know, all these political these political parties here in the United States are coalition parties. Uh they are. That's just that's what they are. Uh, MAGA is a is is a new coalition, electoral coalition built around the president.

The president wasn't on the ballot even though he said you have to treat it like I'm on the ballot. And the MAGA uh coalition did n