美国中期选举投票开启，民主党需净增4席参议院席位
Trump’s Midterm Election Test Begins
NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS, THIS IS "THE PULSE" WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING EVERYONE. AMERICANS HEAD TO THE POLLS FOR MIDTERM ELECTIONS WITH THE CONTEST FOR CONTROL OF CONGRESS BETWEEN -- BECOMING THE BIGGEST POLITICAL TEST OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S SECOND TERM. THE PRESENT DEBATE'S FINAL PITCH TO VOTERS IN FRONT OF THE REFLECTING POOL IN D.C..
新闻人物与市场动向，这是弗朗辛·拉克瓦主持的《脉搏》。弗朗辛：大家早上好。美国人前往投票站参加中期选举，国会控制权之争——已成为特朗普总统第二任期最大的政治考验。辩论的最后阶段在华盛顿特区倒影池前向选民发出呼吁。
THE DEMOCRAT PARTY HAS NORMATIVE THE MOST EXTREME AND DANGEROUS SLATE OF CANDIDATES IN AMERICAN HISTORY WITH YOUR VOTE WE WILL DECIDE THESE EXTREMISTS WILL BE GIVING -- GIVEN POWER -- NOT POWER, WE WANT TO KEEP AMERICA STRONG I THINK THIS IS A GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA WE HAVE NEVER DONE ANYTHING LIKE IT FOR SOME REASON THE SITTING PRESIDENT DOESN'T WIN THE MIDTERMS WE GAVE THIS A VERY STRONG SHOT. FRANCINE: OLIVER CROOK IS A NEW YORK WITH THE LATEST.
民主党提名了美国历史上最极端、最危险的一批候选人。通过你们的选票，我们将决定这些极端分子是否会获得权力——不，我们要让美国保持强大。我认为这是美国的黄金时代，我们从未做过类似的事情。不知为何，现任总统未能在中期选举中获胜，我们对此给予了强有力的支持。弗朗辛：奥利弗·克鲁克来自纽约，带来最新消息。
WE'VE HEARD PRESIDENT TRUMP PERHAPS PULLDOWN EXPECTATIONS FOR THESE RESULTS. WHAT WILL WE BE WATCHING OUT FOR? OLIVER: WE HEARD FROM THE PRESIDENT GIVING HIS FINAL CASE FOR WHY HE SHOULD BE THAT EASY ON THE BALLOT AND WHY THEY SHOULD GO AND VOTE FOR REPUBLICANS. WE HAVE THE POLLS OPENING IN NEW YORK IN ABOUT TWO HOURS TIME AT 6:00 A.M. EASTERN TIME. THE FIRST POLLS THAT WILL BE CLOSED WILL BE IN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY AT 6:00 P.M.
我们听到特朗普总统可能下调了对这些结果的预期。我们将关注什么？奥利弗：我们听到了总统为其最终论点发声，解释他为何应该轻松出现在选票上，以及为什么人们应该去投票给共和党。纽约的投票站将在大约两小时后，即东部时间早上6点开放。最早关闭的投票站将位于印第安纳州和肯塔基州，时间是晚上6点。
EASTERN TIME. A FEW HOURS AFTER YOU GET THOSE KEY RACES AND SOME OF THESE KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES FOR THE HOUSE SOME FOR THE SENATE YOU MAY BEGIN TO GET SOME OF THE CALLS ACROSS THAT AND GET A PICTURE OF WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE UNITED STATES. THE REAL BIG QUESTION FOR THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS IS IS WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE POLLING PROTECTIVELY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WE'VE SEEN A SURGE IN THE SORT OF SENATE FOR THE DEMOCRATS A LOT OF THESE KEY RACES.
东部时间。在你获得那些关键选区以及一些众议院和参议院的关键摇摆州的结果后几小时内，你可能会开始收到一些预测结果，从而了解美国正在发生的情况。对于民主党和共和党来说，真正的大问题是，过去几天我们在民调中看到的情况是否具有保护性。我们看到民主党在参议院席位方面出现激增，许多关键选区都是如此。
THE DEMOCRATS NEED TO NET FOUR SEATS IN THE SENATE TO GAIN CONTROL OF THE HOUSE. IS THAT SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO MATERIALIZE ON VOTING DAY. THERE'VE BEEN MANY INSTANCES PARTICULARLY WITH TRUMP AS PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WHERE THE DEMOCRATS HAVE SHOWN VERY WELL IN POLLS AND THAT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. WE WILL PUT THAT PICTURE TOGETHER THROUGHOUT THE HOURS LATER TODAY. THE VERY LAST POLE CLOSES ON THE WESTERN POINT OF ALASKA AT 1:00 A.M.
民主党需要在参议院净增四个席位以控制众议院。这会在投票日实现吗？有许多实例，特别是在特朗普担任美国总统期间，民主党人在民调中表现良好，但并未转化为实际成果。我们将在今天晚些时候的几个小时内拼凑出这一图景。最后一个投票站在阿拉斯加西部于凌晨1点关闭。
EASTERN TIME GO BY TOMORROW MORNING WE SHOULD BEGINNING TO GET THAT PICTURE RELATIVELY. FRANCINE: LET'S BRING STEPHANIE BAKER, SOME OF THE STATES ARE VERY CLOSE SO WHAT YOU WATCHING OUT FOR SPECIFICALLY? STEPHANIE: DEMOCRATS HAVE A PATH TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE SENATE BUT THEY HAVE TO DEFEND THE SEATS THAT THEY HOLD INCLUDING GEORGIA, MICHIGAN, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THEY HAVE TO WIN ANOTHER FOUR STATES IN STATES THAT TRUMP WON BY DOUBLE DIGITS AND THAT'S GOING TO BE A HUGE CHALLENGE.
东部时间到明天早上，我们应该开始看到相对清晰的选情画面。弗朗辛：让我们请斯蒂芬妮·贝克进来，一些州的选情非常胶着，你具体关注什么？斯蒂芬妮：民主党有路径夺取参议院控制权，但他们必须守住现有的席位，包括佐治亚州、密歇根州和新罕布什尔州，并且必须在特朗普以两位数优势获胜的另外四个州赢得胜利，这将是一个巨大的挑战。
IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEMOCRATS WILL PROBABLY WIN IN NORTH CAROLINA SO THAT MEANS THEY NEED TO PICK UP THREE MORE SEATS EITHER TEXAS, OHIO, ALASKA, MAINE. I WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINE IN PARTICULAR, OF POLLS LAST TIME WHEN REPUBLICAN SENATOR SUSAN COLLINS RAN FOR REELECTION IN 2020 WERE WAY OFF AND SHE WON IN A SURPRISE VICTORY. SO I WILL BE LOOKING AT WHAT THE RESULTS ARE COMING IN IN MAINE IF THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT SHE MAY BE DOING WELL.
看起来民主党很可能在北卡罗来纳州获胜，这意味着他们还需要再拿下三个席位，要么是德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州或阿拉斯加州，要么是缅因州。我将特别关注缅因州，上次2020年共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯竞选连任时的民调结果偏差很大，她意外获胜。所以我会密切关注缅因州的计票结果，看是否有迹象表明她可能表现良好。
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE DEMOCRATS TO WIN 54 SEATS. POSSIBLY 55, SOUTH CAROLINA IS LOOKING CLOSE. BUT A LOT OF THESE CASES IT IS THE MARGIN THAT IS SO CLOSE BUT THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE THEY COULD LOSE SEVERAL OF THEM AND LOSE CONTROL OF CONGRESS. FRANCINE: WHAT WILL THE DEMOCRATS DO WITH BOTH HOUSES IS THE QUESTION. ARE THEY ON THE SAME PAGE AND ONE OF THE THINGS WE WERE CHATTING ABOUT IS ARE THEY ABLE THEN TO ADDRESS SOME OF THE CONCERNS THAT CITIZENS OF THE U.S.
民主党有可能赢得54个席位，可能是55个，南卡罗来纳州的选情看起来很胶着。但在很多情况下，差距都非常微小，但也存在他们失去其中几个席位并失去国会控制权的情景。弗朗辛：民主党在控制两院后将做什么，这是一个问题。他们是否步调一致？我们之前讨论过的一点是，他们能否解决美国公民的一些关切……
HAVE INFLATION. STEPHANIE: IF THEY WIN CONTROL THEY WILL BASICALLY STOP TRUMP'S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA AND HIS ABILITY TO MAKE APPOINTMENTS INCLUDING TO THE SUPREME COURT SHOULD A VACANCY COME UP. BUT I THINK THE CHALLENGES THEY WILL HAVE TO WALK AND CHEW GUM AT THE SAME TIME. THEY WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS ISSUES OF CORRUPTION AND ACCOUNTABILITY AND THEY WILL PROBABLY DO THAT THROUGH INVESTIGATIONS AND SUBPOENAING -- ISSUING SUBPOENAS AND POTENTIALLY CONTEMPT OF CONGRESS OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TRIES TO STYMIE THOSE ATTEMPTS.
……通货膨胀的问题。斯蒂芬妮：如果他们赢得控制权，他们将基本阻止特朗普的立法议程以及他进行任命的权力，包括最高法院大法官的任命，如果出现空缺的话。但我认为他们将面临左右开弓的挑战。他们必须处理腐败和问责问题，这可能会通过调查和发出传票来实现——如果特朗普政府试图阻挠这些尝试，还可能涉及藐视国会罪。
BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO DISOWNING ON COST OF LIVING BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE TRUMP WILL LIKELY VETO ANY LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES THAT THEY TRY TO PASS. SO WHETHER OR NOT THEY CAN MOVE FORWARD PARTICULARLY ON ISSUES OF HEALTH CARE AFFORDABILITY I THINK WILL BE KEY AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY CAN PERHAPS FORGE A CONSENSUS WITH SOME REPUBLICANS TO GET SOME OF THAT PASSED THROUGH THE HOUSES. FRANCINE: PRESIDENT TRUMP BELIEVES HE CAN ENERGIZE HIS BASE TO THE POLLS.
但他们在生活成本问题上将不得不采取疏远立场，鉴于特朗普很可能会否决他们试图通过的任何立法倡议。因此，他们能否推进工作，特别是在医疗可负担性问题上，我认为将是关键；以及他们能否可能与一些共和党人达成共识，使部分法案在两院获得通过。弗朗辛：特朗普总统相信他能够激励他的基本盘走向投票站。
WHAT'S HIS PERFORMANCE BEEN LIKE? I KNOW WE SAW HIM SPEAK FOR HIS CLOSING MESSAGE. STEPHANIE: IT WAS A VERY BIZARRE CLOSING ARGUMENT. IT SHOWS HE'S OUT OF TOUCH WITH THE CONCERNS OF MOST VOTERS WHO WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION AND ARE OPPOSED TO HIS WAR IN IRAN AND HE SEEMED FOCUS ON THE RENOVATIONS OF THE REFLECTING POOL WHICH HAS BEEN A CONTROVERSY THAT HAS DOGGED HIS PRESIDENCY SO IT WAS A VERY BIZARRE SETTING FOR HIS CLOSING ARGUMENT.
他的表现如何？我知道我们曾看到他在闭幕演讲中发言。斯蒂芬妮：这是一次非常奇怪的结案陈词。这表明他与大多数选民的关切脱节，这些选民担心通货膨胀，并且反对他在伊朗的战争，而他似乎将重点放在有争议的反射池翻新问题上，这一直困扰着他的总统任期，因此这是他的结案陈词一个非常奇怪的背景。
HIS APPROVAL RATINGS ARE AT HISTORIC LOWS, THE LOWEST EVEN THEN HARRY TRUMAN. THE DEMOCRATS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE NOT POPULAR, I THINK THAT PEOPLE ARE VOTING IN OPPOSITION TO TRUMP RATHER THAN AS A POSITIVE MOVE IN SUPPORT OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. HAVING SAID THAT I THINK THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A SERIES OF VERY TALENTED CANDIDATES IN VERY DEEP BENCH GOING INTO 2028 AND I THINK THAT'S WHY THEY HAVE PERFORMED STRONGLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE SOME CHARISMATIC CANDIDATES UP AGAINST SOME VERY TROUBLED REPUBLICAN OPPONENTS.
他的支持率处于历史低位，甚至低于哈里·杜鲁门当时的水平。另一方面，民主党人并不受欢迎，我认为人们投票是为了反对特朗普，而不是作为支持民主党的积极举动。话虽如此，我认为民主党在2028年拥有系列非常有才华的候选人，阵容深厚，这也是他们表现强劲的原因，因为他们有一些魅力十足的候选人对阵一些处境非常艰难的共和党对手。
FRANCINE: THANK YOU SO MUCH AS ALWAYS STEPHANIE. WE'VE ALSO SEEN THE SUPREME COURT DEFEAT FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO SET ASIDE THOUSANDS OF POLICY -- BALLOT IN CALIFORNIA. SHOULD WE EXPECT MORE LEGAL WRANGLING? OLIVER: INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT WE EXPECT FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND FOR THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS LAST WHEN WE GOT FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WAS TRYING TO GET THE CALIFORNIA TO PUT ASIDE 20,000 BALLOTS ON THE GROUNDS ACCORDING TO THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE THAT THEY WERE LIKELY FROM NONCITIZENS.
弗朗辛：非常感谢你，斯蒂芬妮。我们还看到了特朗普政府试图推翻数千张选票的政策失败——加州的选票。我们应该期待更多的法律纠纷吗？奥利弗：有趣的是看看我们对特朗普政府的期望以及对民主党方面接下来几天的期望。我们从特朗普政府那里得到的最后一件事是试图让加州搁置20,000张选票，理由是据特朗普政府司法部称，这些选票可能来自非公民。
THE SUPREME COURT ELECTED NOT TO INTERVENE ON BEHALF OF THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE AND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WHICH DEALT A BLOW BUT OF COURSE FRANCINE IS ONE OF THE ISSUES WE WILL BE WATCHING CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS IS SOMETHING WE KNOW WELL FROM THE TRUMP PLAYBOOK IN TERMS OF LEGAL CHALLENGES. THIS IS THE PRESIDENT TO STILL TO THIS DAY DENIES THE RESULTS OF THE 2020 ELECTIONS OR SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING VERY CAREFULLY.
最高法院选择不代表司法部和特朗普政府进行干预，这虽然是一个打击，但当然，弗朗辛是我们将在未来几天密切关注的问题之一，这在特朗普的法律挑战策略中是我们所熟知的。这是总统至今仍然否认2020年选举结果的事情，或者我们将密切关注的事情。
WE SHOULD SAY IF THAT BLUE WAVE DOES MATERIALIZE AND IT IS VERY SORT OF EXCESSIVE AND LARGE IN SCALE IT WILL BE HARDER TO MOUNT THESE KINDS OF LEGAL CHALLENGES TO THE RESULTS. FRANCINE: THANK YOU SO MUCH ALI. SPECIAL COVERAGE OF THE MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS KICKING OFF AT MIDNIGHT U.K. TIME AND ALL OF OUR COVERAGE IS ALSO FREE SO YOU CAN ACCESS IT ON OUR WEBSITE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WE ARE JOINED BY THE DEPUTY HEAD OF GLOBAL ECONOMICS AT PJM.
我们应该说，如果这场蓝色浪潮确实出现，并且规模非常大且过度，那么对这些结果发起此类法律挑战将更加困难。弗朗辛：非常感谢你，阿里。中期选举结果的特别报道将于英国时间午夜开始，我们的所有报道也是免费的，所以你可以通过我们的网站整晚访问它。我们有PJM全球经济学副主管加入。
CATHERINE IT IS EXCITING BECAUSE IT'S MIDTERMS. WE DON'T REALLY KNOW BECAUSE THE RACES ARE SO CLOSE. DOES IT CHANGE POLICY FOR THE U.S.? CATHERINE: OUR EXPECTATION IS IF THINGS PAN OUT THE WAY MOST PEOPLE THINK WHICH IS THERE WILL BE A WAVE WITH THE DEMOCRATS TAKING OVER BOTH HOUSES IS THAT WE WILL SEE MORE POLITICAL GRIDLOCK IN WASHINGTON AND AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE A KIND OF DOUBLING DOWN ON THE USE OF EXECUTIVE ORDERS AND MAY BE SOME OF THE THINGS THAT FELT LIKE THEY WERE IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR LIKE TARIFFS MIGHT COME BACK INTO PLAY YOU KNOW OUR VIEW IS THE RISK IS QUITE HIGH THAT THE PRESIDENT COULD TAKE THE AVERAGE TARIFF RATE WHICH IS ALREADY ELEVATED A 10% CLOSER TO THE 15% MAY BE EVEN HIGHER THAN THAT NEAR TO WHERE I THINK HE WANTED THEM ORIGINALLY SO YOU KNOW THAT REALLY POINTS TO MORE INFLATIONARY PRESSURES OVER AND EAST.
凯瑟琳：这令人兴奋，因为正值期中考试。我们其实并不确定，因为选情非常胶着。这会改变美国的政策吗？凯瑟琳：我们的预期是，如果事情如大多数人认为的那样发展——即民主党将同时控制参众两院形成浪潮效应——我们将看到华盛顿出现更多的政治僵局。结果是，我们会看到对行政命令使用的加倍依赖，以及像关税这样曾经似乎已被抛在脑后的一些问题可能会重新回到议程中。我们的观点是，风险相当高，总统可能会提高平均关税率，该税率目前已经处于高位，可能接近15%，甚至更高，接近我认为他最初想要的水平。因此，你知道，这确实指向了更大的通胀压力。
FRANCINE: INFLATION AND AFFORDABILITY. IT GETS MORE AND MORE DANGEROUS IF YOU HAVE GRIDLOCK. KATHARINE: IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THE MACRO FUNDAMENTALS ARE REALLY GOING TO SH
弗朗辛：通胀和可负担性问题。如果你面临政治僵局，情况会变得越来越危险。凯瑟琳：目前尚不清楚宏观基本面是否真的会发生……
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