美联储按兵不动，理事Cook首次 dissent 主张加息

THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER," LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C. KAILEY: MICROSOFT AND ALPHABET DELIVER A MIXED READ ON THE AI BOOM. ALPHABETS PROFIT MISS CASTING DOUBT ON THE RETURN ON MASSIVE AI INVESTMENT, WHILE MICROSOFT REPORTS ANOTHER QUARTER OF STRONG CLOUD GROWTH. ED LUDLOW IS STANDING BY TO BREAK DOWN THE NUMBERS. THE FEDERAL RESERVE LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED, AS EXPECTED, WITH CHAIR KEVIN WARSH INSISTING POLITICS PLAYED NO ROLE IN THE DECISION, EVEN AS INFLATION AND AFFORDABILITY WEIGH HEAVILY ON VOTERS, JUST DAYS BEFORE THE MIDTERMS.

WE GET A REACTION FROM BETSEY STEVENSON. AND SIX DAYS TO GO. NEW REPORTING ON EQUIPMENT OF ANOTHER DAN SULLIVAN IN THE ALASKA SENATE RACE IS RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT OPERATIVES TIED TO MARY PELTOLA'S CAMPAIGN, AS PRESIDENT TRUMP-PENCE TO OHIO FOR ANOTHER MIDTERM RALLY. BLAKE MOORE JOINS US FOR THE FIGHT FOR CONTROL OF CONGRESS. FROM BLOOMBERG'S WASHINGTON, D.C. STUDIOS, WELCOME TO BALANCE OF POWER. JOE MATHIEU IS ON ASSIGNMENT.

WE BEGIN WITH THE PRESIDENT EN ROUTE TO OHIO. KATE SULLIVAN IS STANDING BY AT THE WHITE HOUSE FOR MORE. ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER TRIP. KATE: THAT IS RIGHT. WE ARE LESS THAN A WEEK FROM ELECTION DAY, AND THE PRESIDENT IS FOCUSED ON OHIO. HE JUST ARRIVED AT JOINT BASE ANDREWS AND HIS TAKING QUESTIONS FROM REPORTERS THERE BEFORE HEADING TO OHIO TO CAMPAIGN FOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES. OHIO HAS BEEN A CRITICAL STATE EVERYBODY IS WATCHING.

IT COULD COME DOWN TO WHO CONTROLS -- THE OHIO IT COULD DETERMINE WHO CONTROLS THE SENATE. THERE IS A VERY COMPETITIVE SENATE RACE HAPPENING THERE. REPUBLICAN JOHN HOUSTON, THE INCUMBENT, IS RUNNING AGAINST SHERROD BROWN, A SENATOR WHO LOST HIS REELECTION RACE IN 2024. THIS RACE HAS BECOME ONE OF THE MOST EXPENSIVE NON-PRESIDENTIAL RACES IN HISTORY. THERE IS ALSO THE VERY COMPETITIVE GOVERNOR'S RACE THERE. YOU WILL REMEMBER THAT VERY CONTROVERSIAL VIVEK RAMASWAMY ATTACK AD THAT FEATURES HIS OPPONENT, AMY ACTON,'S ESTRANGEMENT -- A STRANGE MOTHER.

REPUBLICANS INCLUDING THE GOVERNOR OF OHIO, MIKE DEWINE, SAYING HE SHOULD PULL DOWN THE AD, AND DENOUNCING IT. JUST A WEEK FROM ELECTION DAY, THE PRESIDENT IS OUT ON THE TRAIL. THE VICE PRESIDENT WAS ALSO OUT ON THE TRAIL TODAY. WE SEE CABINET OFFICIALS TRAVELING. THEY ARE PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS AS REPUBLICANS TRY TO PULLED ON TO THE SENATE MAJORITY. KAILEY: KATE SULLIVAN LIVE AT THE WHITE HOUSE TONIGHT. TURNING NOW TO THE ECONOMY, THE FEDERAL RESERVE HOLDING INTEREST RATES STEADY IN THE FINAL DECISION BEFORE ELECTION DAY, BUT MAKING IT CLEAR THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER.

KEVIN WARSH PAINTED AN UPBEAT PICTURE OF THE ECONOMY, POINTING TO STRONG GROWTH IN SPENDING EVEN IN THE FACE OF PRICE PRESSURES. KEVIN: THE FED DUAL MANDATE, CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSITIVE. AND YET AMERICANS, OF COURSE, ARE STILL DEALING WITH INFLATION THAT HAS BEEN RUNNING ABOVE THE COMMITTEE'S OBJECTIVE FOR CLOSE TO SIX YEARS. IT IS OUR RESPONSIBILITY TO GET INFLATION DOWN. KAILEY: JOINING US IS MIKE MCKEE, WHO WAS IN THE ROOM FOR THE FED CHAIR'S REMARKS AND IS WITH ME NOW.

WE KNEW IT WAS GOING TO BE A HOLD. THE QUESTION WAS HOW HAWKISH A HOLD IT MIGHT BE, WHAT CLUES ME WHAT YOU GET ABOUT A DECEMBER MEETING. DID WE GET ANY? MIKE: IT WAS A STRANGE NEWS CONFERENCE IN THE SENSE THAT WE KNEW THEY WERE NOT GOING TO DO ANYTHING. THEY DID NOT SURPRISE THE MARKETS. THE MARKETS ARE STILL EXPECTING A DECEMBER MOVE. BUT EVERYTHING THEY SAID, EVERYTHING WARSH SAID, EVERYTHING IN THE STATEMENT, POINTED TO AN ECONOMY THAT IS REALLY STRONG, AND INFLATION THAT IS STILL GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION, WHICH RAISED THE QUESTION WHY ARE YOU WAITING.

THAT WAS SOMETHING HE DID NOT ANSWER. HE DODGED THAT QUESTION QUITE A BIT. HE WAS ASKED IF POLITICS PLAYED A ROLE. PERHAPS IN A SMALL P WAY. NOT THAT THEY WERE TRYING TO INFLUENCE THE ELECTION ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. MAYBE THEY ARE TRYING TO STAY OUT OF TROUBLE AND OFF OF TRUTH SOCIAL, IN TERMS OF CRITIQUES, BY NOT MOVING THIS MEETING. WE DID HAVE ONE VERY INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. FED GOVERNOR LISA COOK, HER FIRST DESCENT EVER. -- DISSENT EVER.

AND SHE DEFAULTED IN FAVOR OF RAISING INTEREST RATES. MAKE OF THAT WHAT YOU WILL. KAILEY: AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THAT ONGOING PURSUIT, WE WILL HAVE TO FIND OUT. OTHER THAN THE DISSENTERS -- A CHANGE TO THE SCHEDULE FOR NEXT YEAR AND BEYOND. WE ARE NOT GOING TO HAVE FEWER MEETINGS. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE FEWER RATE DECISIONS. MIKE: APPARENTLY THEY DECIDED TO HAVE THE SAME EIGHT MEETINGS A YEAR. THAT PUTS THEM ABOUT SIX WEEKS APART -- SIX.

THEY ARE GOING TO TAKE ONE OF THOSE OUT OF THE ROTATION IN TERMS OF HAVING AN INTEREST RATE DECISION AND HAVING A NEWS CONFERENCE. IT IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE THE OCTOBER MEETING, BECAUSE IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER, THEY DO THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE ECONOMY, SO THEY COULD EASILY LEAVE THAT OUT. WHEN YOU GET TO 2028, MAYBE THEY LEAVE OUT APRIL AND OCTOBER BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE NON-FORECAST MEETINGS. WHAT THEY NEED TO DO IS ANNOUNCE THIS VERY SOON, WHAT THEIR SCHEDULE IS GOING TO BE, BECAUSE THE MARKETS NEED TO KNOW.

YOU CANNOT HAVE A FED FUNDS FUTURES CONTRACT FOR OCTOBER IF THERE IS NO FED FUNDS DECISION. KAILEY: IT WOULD LOOK A LITTLE STRANGE ON THE WIRP FUNCTION ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL. FOR MORE, WE TURN TO BETSY STEPHENSON, THE FORMER CHIEF ECONOMIST THE LABOR DEPARTMENT UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA AND NOW A PUBLIC POLICY AND ECONOMICS PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN. GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK ON THE PROGRAM. THIS WAS NOT A UNANIMOUS DECISION AND I WONDER IF YOU THINK IT WAS THE MAJORITY OF THE BOARD OR THE DISSENTERS WHO ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS ECONOMIC EQUATION.

ASK I DON'T WANT TO GET IN AND SAY WHETHER I THINK THEY DID THE RIGHT THING OR THE WRONG THING. WHAT THEY DECIDED TO DO WAS TO LEAVE RATES WHERE THEY ARE. I THINK THE REASON IT IS PUZZLING FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE IS THAT WE ALL THINK THEY ARE EVENTUALLY GOING TO HAVE TO RAISE RATES. AND IF THEY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY RAISE RATES, WHY NOT DO IT RIGHT NOW? WHAT IS THE ADVANTAGE OF WAITING? PEOPLE TRIED TO GET A GOOD ANSWER OUT OF CHAIRMAN WARSH.

LIKE IF YOU ARE PRETTY SURE YOU ARE GOING TO BE RAISING IN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS, WHY NOT RAISE TODAY? I THINK THE BEST ANSWER IS THAT NO ONE REALLY THINKS THE ECONOMY IS RUNNING TOO HOT RIGHT NOW. IN OTHER WORDS, WE SEE THE LABOR MARKET MOVING SLUGGISHLY. WE DON'T SEE UNEMPLOYMENT TOO HIGH. BUT WE DON'T REALLY SEE IT BEING SUPER TIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF HIRING GOING ON. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FIRING GOING ON. IT MAY BE THE CASE THAT THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING, ALONG WITH THE RATE INCREASES THAT HAVE ALREADY HAPPENED.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS TRAJECTORY OF UPWARD PRICES, OF TWO HIGH INFLATION. SO I THINK THEY WANT TO GIVE SOME ROOM TO BASICALLY BETTER UNDERSTAND WHAT THE ECONOMY CAN DO ON ITS OWN, BEFORE THEY RAISE RATES AGAIN. THEY BASICALLY HAVE NOT HAD ENOUGH TIME SINCE THE LAST RATE INCREASE TO ASSESS THAT ASPECT. SO I THINK THAT IS WHAT THEY ARE SAYING. MORE LIKELY THAN NOT, THEY ARE GOING TO RAISE RATES AGAIN. KAILEY: I WONDER YOUR VIEW ON THE EFFICACY OF THE BLUNT TOOL OF RATES AS A MECHANISM FOR TRYING TO ADDRESS INFLATION.

IF A LOT OF THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURES STEM FROM AN ENERGY CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND A WAR BETWEEN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA AND AN AI BOOM THAT SEEMS TO BE AT THIS POINT PRETTY RATE INSENSITIVE IN THAT IT IS CONTINUING EVEN IN THE FACE OF HIGHER RATES, AND A HIGHER HEAD -- HIRE FED FUNDS RATE DO ANYTHING TO REALLY ALTER THOSE TWO THINGS?

YOU LISTED THREE THINGS, AND ONE OF THEM IS NOT LIKE THE OTHER TWO. THE FIRST TWO ARE REALLY SUPPLY SHOCK ISSUES. THIS HAS TO DO WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE PRICE OF ENERGY. THAT IS A SUPPLY ISSUE THAT IS DRIVING UP INPUT COSTS FOR PEOPLE TO MAKE ALL SORTS OF THINGS, WHICH IS CREATING INFLATIONARY PRESSURE ACROSS THE BOARD. AND THE FEAR THE FED HAS IS THE FED CANNOT BRING DOWN ENERGY PRICES. THAT IS A RELATIVE PRICE CHANGE.

ANYTHING THAT USES ENERGY IS GOING TO BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE RELATIVE TO THINGS THAT DON'T USE ENERGY. OF COURSE, LOTS AND LOTS OF THINGS US