美联储议息会议开幕，市场关注复杂经济信号
Traders Brace for Fed Day
美联储议息会议是核心宏观事件，直接影响利率预期与全资产定价；内容梳理了当前经济数据的矛盾点及地缘风险传导机制，有助于投资者理解决策背景与潜在路径。
THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY", REPORTING FROM THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS GLOBAL LEADERS STAY AHEAD WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES, AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY. PLUS GLOBAL BUSINESS, FINANCE, AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS. "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY" WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC LIVE ON BLOOMBERG READY , TELEVISION, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. CAROL: GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYBODY. WE ARE ACROSS BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS.
这里是《彭博商业周刊日报》，从帮助全球领导者保持领先、洞察塑造当今复杂经济格局的人物、公司和趋势的杂志进行报道。同时提供实时全球商业、金融和科技新闻。《彭博商业周刊日报》由卡罗尔·马萨尔和蒂姆·斯滕诺维克在彭博电视台和彭博原创频道直播。卡罗尔：大家下午好。我们在彭博的各个平台上。
RADIO, TV, YOUTUBE AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. WE HAVE GOT TECH STOCKS LEADING THE WAY AGAIN. TIM: WE ARE WAITING ON BIG EARNINGS. ALPHABET, AMAZON, MICROSOFT, INTEL TO NAME A FEW. WE ALSO GET SANDISK TOO. CAROL: WESTERN DIGITAL LAST WEEK. IT'S AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE AI TRADE. THEY NEED THE HARD DISK DRIVES. YOU HAVE TO STORE ALL THAT AI. IT IS ALL CONNECTED. CAROL: LET'S NOT -- TIM: LET'S NOT FORGET THE FED KICKING OFF ITS POLICY MEETING.
广播、电视、YouTube 和彭博原创频道。科技股再次领涨。蒂姆：我们正在等待大型财报。谷歌母公司 Alphabet、亚马逊、微软、英特尔等都将公布业绩。我们还将看到闪迪（SanDisk）的消息。卡罗尔：西部数据（Western Digital）上周已公布。这是人工智能交易的重要组成部分。他们需要硬盘驱动器。你必须存储所有这些数据。这一切都是相互关联的。卡罗尔：让我们不要——蒂姆：别忘了美联储开始其政策会议。
CAROL: LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT WE WILL COVER IN THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. WHY THE FED MAY FACE IS MOST CONFUSING ECONOMY YET. ENDA CURRAN HAS A PIECE OUT ABOUT THAT. WE ARE CURIOUS WHAT'S TOP OF MIND FOR HIM. TIM: ALSO THE VOTE IN ISRAEL SEEN AS A REFERENDUM ON BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, THE COUNTRY'S LONG SERVING BY MINISTER. THE NUANCE BETWEEN THE LEADING CANDIDATES. CAROL: IT IS ALL HAPPENING AS WE SPEAK. WE GET A READ ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
卡罗尔：让我们谈谈接下来 60 分钟我们将涵盖的内容。为什么美联储可能面临最令人困惑的经济局面。恩达·柯兰有一篇相关文章发表，我们很好奇这是否是他目前最关注的问题。蒂姆：此外，以色列的投票被视为对本杰明·内塔尼亚胡这位该国长期任职的首相的全民公投。主要候选人之间的细微差别。卡罗尔：这一切都在我们说话的同时发生。我们对全球经济进行评估。
ULTA ASSET MANAGER CEO WILL BE ALONG IN A FEW MOMENTS. LOOKING FORWARD TO WHAT HE IS SEEING SPECIFICALLY WHEN IT COMES TO DIFFERENT TYPES OF REAL ESTATE AND THE DATA CENTER PLATFORMS. TIM: ARE YOU READY FOR THE MARATHON? CAROL: NO. I'M NOT A RUNNER. TIM: GO FOR A RUN? CAROL: I RUN AROUND A LOT INTO THE STUDIO. TIM: ELIUD KIPCHOGE IS COMING BY. YOU MAY KNOW HIM, TWO TIME OF A GOLD MEDALIST, MULTIPLE TIME MAJOR MARATHON WINNER.
Ulta 资产管理公司首席执行官稍后将加入节目。期待他分享所见所闻，特别是关于不同类型的房地产和数据中心平台的情况。蒂姆：你准备好迎接马拉松了吗？卡罗尔：没有。我不是跑步者。蒂姆：去跑个步吗？卡罗尔：我经常在演播室里跑来跑去。蒂姆：埃鲁德·基普乔格会过来。你可能认识他，两枚奥运金牌得主，多次赢得重大马拉松赛事冠军。
FIRST PERSON IN HISTORY TO RUN A MARATHON IN UNDER TWO HOURS. LOOKING FOR THAT CONVERSATION. I FEEL THE NEED FOR SPEED. CAROL: LET'S GET YOU GOING. LET'S CHECK THE TRADE. TECH STOCKS LEADING THE CHARGE HERE. CHARLIE: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THE DOW LOWER NOW. THE S&P AND NASDAQ ARE BOTH RUNNING HIGHER. S&P UP 42. 7718 NOW. WE BEGIN AS A BASELINE BECAUSE WE HAVE NASDAQ 100 INDEX UP 1.2%. NASDAQ COMPOSITE UP 1.1%. THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX UP NOW BY ABOUT 3.3%.
历史上第一个在两小时内完成马拉松的人。期待这次对话。我感觉需要速度。卡罗尔：让我们让你动起来。让我们看看交易情况。科技股在此领涨。查理：非常感谢。道琼斯指数现在下跌。标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数均走高。标普 500 指数上涨 42.7718 点。我们以基准开始，因为纳斯达克 100 指数上涨 1.2%。纳斯达克综合指数上涨 1.1%。费城证券交易所半导体指数现在上涨约 3.3%。
DOW INDUSTRIALS UP, LITTLE CHANGED. BOEING CERTAINLY WEIGHING ON THE DOW, DOWN NOW BY 9.4%. TWO-YEAR AT -- THE 30-YEAR, 5.30%. FEDERAL RESERVE POLICYMAKERS BEGIN THEIR TWO DAY MEETINGS. SPOT GOLD UP 1%. $4058 AN OUNCE. WEST TEXAS ENEMY ACCRUED, $99.83 A BARREL. BRENT CRUDE, $113.73. IT IS DOWN BY 1.3%. LOTS OF TECH EARNINGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOMORROW FROM ALPHABET AND MICROSOFT. ALPHABET UP BY 1.3%. MICROSOFT DOWN .2%.
道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，变化不大。波音股价无疑拖累大盘，目前下跌9.4%。两年期国债收益率——30年期为5.30%。美联储政策制定者开始举行为期两天的会议。现货黄金上涨1%，每盎司4058美元。西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）累增至每桶99.83美元。布伦特原油113.73美元，下跌1.3%。未来几天将公布大量科技股财报。明天将是Alphabet和微软的财报日。Alphabet上涨1.3%。微软下跌0.2%。
AMAZON ON THURSDAY UP BY 2%. FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS 20 FOR HOURS A DAY SUBSCRIBED TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW OR EVER GET YOUR PODCASTS. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. CAROL: APPRECIATE IT. CHARLIE PELLETT, THANK YOU SO MUCH. THE FED KICKED OFF THAT TWO DAY MEETING TODAY. CENTRAL BANK PEERS IN THE EURO ZONE IN JAPAN WILL PROBABLY KEEP INTEREST RATES STEADY THIS WEEK BEFORE POTENTIAL FURTHER HIKES. CHAIR KEVIN WARSH, WHO IS IS SKEWED -- ISSUED GUIDANCE.
亚马逊周四上涨2%。如需全天候新闻，请每天订阅彭博新闻20小时或收听播客。这是彭博商业快讯。卡罗尔：非常感谢。查理·佩莱特，非常感谢你。美联储今天开始了为期两天的会议。欧元区及日本的其他央行本周可能会在潜在进一步加息前维持利率不变。主席凯文·沃什发布了指导方针。
LET'S PUT IT OUT THERE. HE WILL FACE A TRICKY TEST AT HIS POST MEETING. YOU WERE JUST CHEWING PEANUTS. TIM: I DON'T KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON. CAROL: HE DOESN'T LIKE TO DO IT AND DOESN'T WANT TO DO IT. HE PROBABLY WILL NOT OFFER MUCH INSIGHT ABOUT DECEMBER BUT HE MAY ALSO NOT WANT TO SWAY MARKET BETS AWAY FROM THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR A HIKE. IT'S AN INTERESTING POSITION TO BE IN. TIM: PROBABLY NOT ENVIABLE. WITH MORE ON THE FED DECISION AND HOW THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS NAVIGATING THE ECONOMY AS COMPLEX ANYTIME OUTSIDE OF A CRISIS, ENDA CURRAN JOINS US.
让我们把它摆到台面上来。他将在会后面临一项棘手的考验。你刚才一直在嚼花生。蒂姆：我不知道怎么回事。卡罗尔：他不喜欢这样做，也不想这样做。他可能不会提供关于12月会议的太多见解，但他也可能不想引导市场押注偏离当前加息的预期。这是一个有趣的处境。蒂姆：大概并不令人羡慕。更多有关美联储决策以及美联储如何在非危机时期应对复杂经济的导航策略，恩达·柯伦加入我们。
WHAT DOES MAKE THIS ECONOMY SO COMPLICATED? ENDA: THERE ARE SO MANY PUSH AND PULL FACTORS ALL AT ONCE. YOU HAVE THE MARKETS FROZEN IN THE HOUSING PRICES REMAINING HIGH. BOND YIELDS ARE SEWING BUT STOCK MARKETS KEEP HITTING NEW HIGHS OR AT LEAST STAYING I. CONSUMER SPENDING STRONG BUT SEVERAL INDICATORS OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN THE DOLDRUMS. UNEMPLOYMENT LOW, WAGE GAINS HARDER TO GET AND THE AI STORY WHICH EITHER IS GOING TO BE A PRODUCTIVITY REVOLUTION OR THE END OF HUMANITY.
是什么让这经济如此复杂？恩达：同时存在许多推力和拉力因素。市场冻结，房价居高不下。债券收益率上升，但股市不断创下新高或至少保持坚挺。消费者支出强劲，但多个消费者情绪指标处于低迷状态。失业率低下，工资增长更难获得，而人工智能的故事要么是一场生产力革命，要么是人类文明的终结。
TIM: OK, THANKS ENDA. THAT'S ALL WE NEED. ENDA: I'LL COME BACK LATER. CAROL: MAYBE YOU WON'T. ENDA: EXACTLY. IT'S NOT THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN COLLOCATED TIMES BEFORE. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE A LOT OF CONFLICTING SIGNALS. IN THE MIDDLE IS THE FED. THEY HAVE TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO LIFT BORROWING COSTS TO KEEP A LID ON INFLATION WITHOUT HURTING THE NON-AI PART OF THE ECONOMY. THAT IS THE HARD PART. CAROL: IS IT A GOOD ECONOMY OR JUST GOOD FOR SOME?
蒂姆：好的，谢谢恩达。这就是我们需要的。恩达：我稍后再回来。卡罗尔：也许你不会。恩达：没错。并不是说我们以前没见过集中爆发的时刻。现在有很多相互矛盾的信号。中间是美联储。他们必须决定是否提高借贷成本以抑制通胀，同时不伤害非AI部分的经济。这才是最难的部分。卡罗尔：这是一项好经济，还是只对某些人有利？
I FEEL LIKE WE HAVE GUESTS ON THAT ARE LIKE, IT'S A GOOD ECONOMY, LOOK AT THE SPENDING, AND EARNINGS. ENDA: I DOUBT IT POINTS TO A STRONG ECONOMY. GDP GROWTH IS STRONG. CORPORATE PROFITS ARE STRONG. THOSE ARE GOOD HEADLINES BUT WHEN YOU DRILL INTO THE DATA YOU GET A DIFFERENT PICTURE. TAKE RETAIL SPENDING OR CONSUMER SPENDING. A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL TELL YOU IT'S THE HIGHER INCOME EARNERS DURING THE SPENDING. LOWER INCOME WORKERS ARE FEELING THE PAIN.
我觉得我们请到的嘉宾认为，经济状况良好，看看支出和盈利就知道了。恩达：我怀疑这指向强劲的经济。GDP增长强劲。企业利润强劲。这些都是好消息，但当你深入数据时，你会看到一幅不同的画面。以零售支出或消费者支出为例。很多人会告诉你，支出主要来自高收入者。低收入工人正在承受痛苦。
BIG COMPANIES ARE DOING WELL. SMALLER BUSINESSES WILL TELL YOU THE COST OF A LOAN AT THE BANK IS EXPENSIVE FOR THEM. THEY FACE RISING INSURANCE COSTS AND RISING COSTS FOR BUYING THE MATERIAL THAT THEY NEED. EVERYONE HAS A DIFFERENT STORY ON IT. IT IS A STRONGER ECONOMY BUT I THINK THE UNIFYING NARRATIVE, THE HOUSEHOLD AND BUSINESS, IS THAT THE COSTS ARE HIGH AND INCREASING AND THAT IS WHERE ATTENTION IS AT THE MOMENT.
大公司做得很好。小型企业会告诉你，银行贷款的成本对他们来说很昂贵。他们面临着不断上涨的保险成本和购买所需材料成本的上升。每个人对此都有不同的说法。经济确实更强了，但我认为家庭和企业的统一叙事是，成本高且仍在增加，这也是目前关注的焦点。
TIM: WHERE ARE THE CAUSE HIGHEST FOR CONSUMERS? ONE OF OUR REGULARS GET IN TOUCH WITH ME AND HE SAYS YOU TALK ABOUT HIGH OIL PRICES AND GAS PRICES TOO MUCH. THE DATA SHOWS THAT IS NOT HITTING AMERICANS' SPENDING AS HARD AS YOU GUYS, THE MEDIA, ARE MAKING IT OUT TO BE. YOU HAVE THE IPHONE DUO THAT IS $2000 SELLING OUT ON HIS FIRST DAY THAT IT'S FOR SALE. YOU HAVE SO MANY CONSUMERS COMPLAINING ABOUT BASIC COSTS. HELP US MAKE SENSE OF THOSE ECONOMIES.
蒂姆：消费者的成本最高在哪里？我们的一位常客联系我，他说你过多地谈论高油价和汽油价格。数据显示，这并没有像你们媒体所渲染的那样严重打击美国人的支出。你有售价2000美元的iPhone Duo在发售第一天就售罄。你有这么多消费者抱怨基本生活成本。帮助我们理解这些经济现象。
ENDA: IT GOES BACK TO THE CONFLICTING SIGNAL I SPOKE ABOUT EARLIER. IF YOU HAD STOPPED SOMEWHAT IN JANUARY AND SAID THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WOULD BE CLOSED AND THE WORLD TO GO THROUGH AN ENERGY SHOT, OK. HERE WE ARE GROWTH IS ACCELERATING. GDP THIS WEEK SHOWING STRONGER FIGURES. THAT IS THE CASE BUT NONETHELESS INFLATION FIGURES FOR SEPTEMBER SHOWED AN ACCELERATION IN BROAD-BASED PRICE PRESSURES. NOT JUST ENERGY RELATED.
恩达：这回到了我之前提到的相互矛盾的信号。如果你在1月份暂停一下，说霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，世界将经历能源冲击，好吧。现在我们看到增长在加速。本周的GDP显示出更强的数据。情况确实如此，但尽管如此，9月份的通胀数据显示出广泛的价格压力加速。不仅仅是与能源相关。
WE ARE SEEING SPILL OVER MERCHANDISE GOODS. TOY PRICES ARE INCREASING. THAT IS FOR DIFFERENT REASONS BUT TARIFFS ARE PART OF IT AS WELL. IT HAS NOT SLOWED SPENDING OR THE ECONOMY THE WAY YOU MIGHT'VE THOUGHT BUT IT SPILLING OVER IN TERMS OF COSTS FOR DIESEL. FARMERS ARE COMPLAINING ABOUT IT. IF FARMERS COMPLAIN, FOOD DELIVERY COSTS GO UP. THEY CAN'T BE RULED THAT THAT THE ENERGY STORY WILL NOT SPILL OVER. CAROL: YOU HAVE ALIGNING YOUR COLUMN, MOST CONCERNING OF ALL SOME OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS OF 2026 POTENTIALLY BE ON THE FED'S CONTROL, LIKE THE WAR THE MIDDLE EAST THAT IS CAUSING HIGHER ENERGY PRICES.
我们看到溢出效应波及商品。玩具价格在上涨。原因各不相同，但关税也是其中一部分。它并没有像你想象的那样减缓支出或经济，但在柴油成本方面出现了溢出。农民对此抱怨不已。如果农民抱怨，食品运输成本就会上升。不能排除能源故事会继续溢出的可能性。卡罗尔：你在专栏中写道，最令人担忧的是，2026年一些最重要的经济发展可能处于美联储的控制之下，比如导致能源价格上涨的中东战争。
THAT IS THE TRICKY WICK. ENDA: THAT'S A PROBLEM. SHORTAGE OF CHIPS, BIG DEMAND, SOARING BECAUSE OF IPHONE. INTEREST RATES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY IPHONES BUT THAT'S PART OF THE CHALLENGE FACING THE FED. CAROL: GOOD STUFF AS ALWAYS. WE THINK ABOUT THE FED DECISION, WHICH WILL HAVE IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS FROM NOW. ENDA CURRAN, THANK YOU SO MUCH. ECONOMIC REPORTER IN THE BLOOMBERG NEWS D.C. NEWS BUREAU. THAT'S A FOCUS FOR INVESTORS TODAY.
这就是棘手的灯芯问题。恩达：这是个问题。芯片短缺，需求巨大，因iPhone而飙升。利率不会受iPhone影响，但这是美联储面临的挑战的一部分。卡罗尔：一如既往的好消息。我们关注美联储的决策，将在不到24小时内公布。恩达·卡兰，非常感谢你。彭博新闻社华盛顿新闻局的经济学记者。这是今天投资者关注的焦点。
WE ARE VERY CLOSELY WATCHING ELECTIONS AROUND THE GLOBE. IT'S A BUSY SEASON. WE ARE GETTING READY FOR OUR MIDTERMS NEXT WEEK. WE ARE WATCHING WHAT'S GOING ON IN ISRAEL. TIM: VOTING HAS BEEN UNDER WAY WHERE IT'S A LITTLE AFTER 8:00 IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE POLLS CLOSE. THE OUTCOME OF VOTING IN ISRAEL BEING A REFERENDUM ON BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, THE COUNTRY'S LONGEST-SERVING PRIME MINISTER. I WANT TO BLINKEN --I WANT TO BRING IN ETHAN BRONNER.
我们密切关注全球各地的选举。这是一个繁忙的季节。我们正在为下周的中期选举做准备。我们关注以色列的情况。蒂姆：投票已经开始，在投票结束前晚上8点左右。以色列投票的结果是对本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的全民公投，他是该国任职时间最长的总理。我想请出布林肯——我想邀请伊桑·布伦纳。
THEY SAY THIS WILL DECIDE HIS FATE. THE FIRST SINCE THE OCTOBER 7 ATTACKS. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR POS
他们说这将决定他的命运。自10月7日袭击以来的第一次。这对POS意味着什么
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力