美国9月CPI与PPI超预期，债市避险推升美债收益率

From New York City. For our viewers worldwide, I'm Scarlet Fu Bloomberg Real Yield. Starts right now. Coming up, Back-To-Back hot inflation prints with producer prices rising in September at the fastest pace since 2022 and consumer prices advancing the most in five months. The data boosting the odds the fed will hike rates this year. Normally that would send Treasury yields higher, but this time we see a flight to safety and higher rates putting a dent on Wall Street fixed income trading revenue.

We wrap up how thick desks fared at the biggest U.S. banks. We begin with the big issue September's hot inflation prints, putting the fed in a tough spot. The economy this is a broad based inflation environment. We see it in the data. The momentum in these two latest inflation trends are concerned. Inflation is still a huge problem for people. I think for a lot of the real economy, rates are restrictive and have been restrictive.

The market is trying to tell you rates are too low. There's so many factors driving rates rates higher. It's just not slowing things down the way that they normally would. Bonds I bet I dislike bonds less today than I did six months ago. We see a short and sweet hiking cycle here, and we look to the opportunity to lean in to this back up in bond yields. Every single central bank meeting that should be life, but you have to be aggressive enough to get inflation back to target.

You only got to be faster than the slowest hiker in the market. I don't think they should raise interest rates and they probably won't. At the next meeting, I have no confidence that we think the fed is going to hike one more time. December. It might not be at this next meeting, it might be later. But at least we have a real grown up at that table. Who's going to be able to adjust and enable the bond markets to be in a healthier place?

This morning we learned that wholesale prices rose in September at the fastest pace in more than four years as higher energy costs rippled through the U.S. economy. Those are the PPI numbers here, all higher than expected. Yesterday we got CPI, which advanced at the fastest pace in five months. While a gauge of underlying price pressures rose more than anticipated. Again, almost everything was higher than expected. Here's the fallout on the bond market.

This is the ten year yield week to date. Monday was a public holiday, so you didn't get anything there. The yield initially spiking higher after the CPI report. But then you can see it fell reflecting a higher price as treasuries became a safe haven trade due to overall market volatility. Now this week, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan was speaking with Bloomberg when he touted the benefits of higher rates on the banking sector.

If you have 2 billion of deposits, which you pay 159 basis points, 449 basis points for it, rates go up and you go up a lot less because a substantial part of those deposits are not interest bearing. Higher rates are beneficial, except if higher rates are because something really is bad in the economy that has other issues. But if as the rates grind up, we will make more money. That's the nature of having a zero interest thing when rates came down.

And that's what crunches you, because we have the zero interest and you don't go below zero. So simply put, our exposure to higher rates is always positive. We want to bring in our Bloomberg and a current. He joins us with more. He's also got a chart in hand. And I really want to focus here on the inflation prints and how oil prices seem to be the not the single driver but the biggest driver of those increases. They are the biggest driver.

Scalia we're starting to see broad based price pressures now. But energy is at the heart of it all. As you mentioned we consumer inflation yesterday, producer prices today all telling the same story. And the chart that we have will illustrate some of that in terms of the impact that it all or the energy shock is having. If you look at some of the numbers, fuel oil, for example, up around 80% of the year to date. You look at gasoline on like unleaded regular, around 48%, airlines up seven, airline fares up around 79% year to date.

And now it's not just the energy story though as well. To your point, you go beyond that. You look at jewelry prices year today up around a 10%, for example. And yesterday in the in the consumer prices, um, there was one particular study that Scarlett toy prices were up by the most on month, uh, since by the most unknown since 1988 and their biggest on year increase, uh, ever on record. And it just speaks the idea that there are there's a triple shock going on at home.

We've got the energy shock, which we all know about. We've just spoken about. That's the year fuel prices. That's that's diesel. That's, uh, that's what we're paying at the pump. You have to I story which isn't just about data centers. It's spilling over into prices. Not enough for everyday household electronic goods, laptops, smartphones and all the rest of it. And then the tariff story is still there. It hasn't gone away.

And that's where you start talking about perhaps, for example, your toys, for example, which some people are saying had an impact on core inflation. So the bottom line is that inflation can no longer be explained away is one offs. It is broad based. It is persistent and that of course will keep pressure on the fed to keep raising interest rates. I'm glad you mentioned the tariffs. How do you see the flow through of tariffs on prices.

Where does that show up. So it's not a binary story. I mean the white House of course will say people exaggerated the impact of tariffs on inflation. Those who warned against the impact of tariffs on face. You can say, you know, the way the tariff policy was rolled out and changed up and tweaked and all the rest of it, it's hard to get a true reading what's going on? But the bottom line is we are seeing it in the price of goods.

The literature and the official research shows that price of goods are capturing the impact of these new import duties. Like I mentioned, you can see it on some of the imported goods. Toys, for example, was the one people were talking about yesterday. You can sometimes see it in other imported goods as well. Household furnishings, household goods, um, and the like. And so to be clear, tariffs aren't the only story. Um, but they are certainly they are certainly contributing to inflation at the margins.

Right. And for the month of September at least. And thank you so much. Bloomberg's said and eco reporter and a current joining us from Washington. So that's the perfect setup here as we dig into all of this with our macro roundtable. Jean Nuzzo is global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle. And so Barbara Joppa is head of research associate general Americas. Um, let's start with the highly anticipated CPI and PPI prints of this month or that we just got this week from last month, both hotter than expected, and the stock market fell on both.

And now we're seeing a flight to bonds. Have we reached an inflection point where investors see value in bonds? Um, I think this is too soon to come to that conclusion because of the fact that bond yields have been going, uh, higher, as I was pointing out, because there are a variety of reasons higher oil prices, you know, the sell off in global bond yields. The I, um, you know, build out the CapEx spending that's coming from that more corporate bond issuance, uh, that's crowding out, uh, the bond complex.

So there's a really variety of factors that are pushing a bond yields higher. I'm a little reticent to read too much into the price action in the last 24 to 48 hours. We did see a significant sell off after the CPI print initially. That could be because of position unwinds. The market was not really positioned for in October. Um, you know, policy. Uh, hike. Now we're at around 30%. And then we saw this reversal today.

And again, this could be, uh,