Bloomberg：中东冲突推高油价溢价，全球供应链正重塑

Taken together the hostilities in the Middle East. And, uh. Trying to understand how close things are to getting back to, quote unquote, normal, if ever we are after yesterday's, what fair to call it an escalation? Well, I think that the damage that you're referring to, it's just an office building. The real upside risk for oil comes if the attacks start to seriously impair production, refining or exports. The Houthis, at least so far, haven't knocked out Saudi production.

Not in a serious way. Uh, but they are, uh, threatening routes that get that oil to market. One of the messages we've been reiterating with our clients is that energy security isn't just about where you drill, but how reliably you can deliver. So. So was that. Then read as kind of a warning shot from the who. Things like we know how to get you, but is that how it's seen? And it's just a reminder and maybe also a reminder that this thing is just going to go on even longer.

Most of the oil price gyrations you've seen since the start of the year really relate to the geopolitical risk premium that's being reflected in the market. So much of your theory on the oil market today has to come down to how you see this wider conflict in the Middle East region either resolving or not resolving. When we run our fair value model for oil, we get a price that's much lower than what we're seeing on the screen today.

So I think the fundamentals actually could paint a bearish picture if you could get the conflict resolved, because right now the conflict is keeping barrels off the market. You get those barrels back on to the market. There's plenty of oil. Uh, how do we get the barrels back on to the market? We got to wave a wand and find a path to, uh, peace in the Middle East. It seems. Right. I think the US has really, uh, put the world into, uh, a difficult position, uh, by kicking off the conflict.

And, you know, the one saving grace is that compared with the oil shocks of the 1970s, at least today, there are alternatives. The economy's much larger. We are less dependent on, uh, oil to drive every aspect of the economy. If you look to China, EVs, sales, electric vehicle sales are roaring. You look to Europe, you're seeing, uh, EVs and plug in hybrids do quite well. So consumers are trying to find alternatives, and especially with prices where they are, too, there's a lot of incentive to get that oil to market.

So despite all the headlines you're seeing, we've actually seen during the month of September that transits through the Strait of Hormuz, we're actually approaching the pre conflict levels. So, uh, there's a lot of economic incentive to get the oil to the market. And it's just a matter of whether you can do that safely or not. And you know, all things being equal I think, you know, most parties would probably want to see this conflict resolved.

You know, it's interesting. I was thinking about a documentary I did a few years ago. Um, and it was about higher oil prices in the U.S. and how we were talking about, I think it was the second Bush administration about introducing more ethanol. and we wanted to use corn based ethanol and what it would do in terms of lowering prices. And I went to Brazil and the 1970s oil crisis hit them so badly because they at the time imported something like 80% of their petroleum.

So they moved to sugar based ethanol. And I just I guess I think about these moments in time, these crises, whether it's, you know, that caused us to shift dramatically longer term, is this crises, whether it's China. I mean, the US is a little bit insulated because we've become so oil sufficient. Um, is it going to change how the world thinks about petroleum? Is this the thing that says, yeah, we've got to embrace alternative even more than we have, because this just can't happen again.

Well, the short answer is yes, but maybe not quite in the way you're thinking. Okay. Every attack is basically a sales pitch for Texas, Alberta, Caracas. We are seeing a reordering of the global oil supply chain, and we are expecting a rise of production out of, uh, the US and the and the Americas generally. You know, I was just doing a little bit of history reading. This is the IEA's, uh, World Energy Outlook from 2010.

And I was just looking for that is not like he held it. He held it up for those listening. It's not light reading. No, it's not a beach read. It's also 16 years old. So why is that important that you did that? Well, I was curious at the time to see what what was the professional view, what was the consensus opinion on where oil prices were going to be the lowest oil price scenario, uh, for the year 2025. At that time was $130 a barrel nominal.

Well, uh, so basically it's it's a we're we're actually Below, where professional forecasters would have pegged things, you know, 16 years ago. Where will and where were we with fracking then? That's right. The, the the industry has proven time and time again to be quite resilient. And so the things that you are going to see now is I think you are going to see this, this trade off, uh, you know, break the, the barrels of oil that are in the Middle East.

They're the low cost barrels, but the reliable barrels are probably increasingly going to be seen as in places like the US or Canada or Latin America writ large. So you can see more investment there, while at the same time you're seeing China and other countries go all in on alternatives. So I think you're going to see a little bit all of an all of the above strategy. But oil is going to be in the picture for some time to come.

When you think about, you know, you talked about your oil estimates, Rob, and how it would actually get rid of this war. They would be much lower. But realistically, how are you thinking about how much longer this war goes on? I know that's a geopolitical thing and who knows. And we've all had kind of these false expectations that were close to an end. Then we have to backtrack. But I am just curious what your thinking is about an end to this conflict, this war.

It's quite interesting. Pretty much all the professional watchers of energy markets, oil markets at the start of this conflict said one of two things. They said the conflict has to end quickly, or oil prices are going to the moon. And if the conflict does end quickly, then we'll see a normalization of prices. The very interesting thing is the conflict has endured and oil prices have been relatively tame and resilient Despite everything happening, I think we generally encourage our clients to think in a scenario framework.

Our baseline or base case scenario is what we would describe as a frozen conflict. So it's not an it's not an act of war, but it is something like we're experiencing now where things you get some positive signals for a few days, then you get a drone strike and you have to reassess. So we are this probably feels like what we could be in for a while. I think the optimistic case is that we do find some path to peace and normalization.

And of course, if there is an escalation where we go back into an active conflict, prices could go much higher than where we are today. We're speaking with Rob Burnett, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst One of my favorite games to play, Rob, is where in the world is Rob Barnett? Because I feel like over the past few years, I've interviewed you from Miami, from Jacksonville. From Washington, D.C., from New York, from London.

What am I leaving off here? We did Seattle one time. Okay, well, but but but I'm all that to to show that you are constantly on the road, in some cases living abroad to get an understanding of these global energy markets. Absolutely. I did seven years in London as well. So yeah. Uh, that was uh, that was also part of the mix. I wanted to ask you. Yes. Are you at the Dogg Pound, though, right now? Did I hear a dog in the background?

I think you might have heard my, uh. My miniature poodle. His name's Fonzie. Uh, he doesn't u