美债收益率重回2002年高位，实际利率飙升驱动股债资金轮动

I think historically, if you look at the last 25, 30 years, I'm not going last hundred years. But, uh, it's been difficult for the US to sustain yields above 5% on the ten years. So right now, I don't think that the question is where we are questioning the resiliency of this economy, that it's high CapEx or the upper end of the case shift sort of economy consumer. But we are questioning whether this resiliency is able to exceed expectations at this 5% rate.

And with the amount of hawkish notes now that is priced in into the economy at this point. So we've gone through a major repricing in the bond market. I don't think anybody would argue with that. But should we take solace in the fact that you say it is orderly? Even what we're seeing in Europe is orderly, very orderly. I think if you look at probably from 390 to 1 tens, almost as nauseating to 540 on the ten year in interest rates, the liquidity, the better ask.

Um, not much blowing up that tells you the resiliency of the economy, resiliency of the market structure. Only in the last one week. I think somewhere in the market spread market for a couple of days. And then the sovereign, um, I would say crisis that is erupting up again, this is classic monetary policy where you have one blunt tool of the interest rate that chisels through the economy in an equal fashion, and balance sheets that are more levered and are teetering double B, single B balance sheets like France.

I think those are the ones that are starting to show that cracks, uh, picking up in the economy. We're going to get the FOMC um, minutes later this afternoon. Of course, we've got to get through the October meeting as well. But you say the November Treasury refunding announcement will be more important than the next fed meeting. Why? Very clearly, I think today's and tomorrow's auction will tell you the same thing as well, where the market is having a very difficult time, pricing risk or duration risk in the market.

But it's sovereign. But it's, you know, corporate, uh, on the other side where it's difficult to price in with how much of that 20 and 30 year is going to come out in the market. Now, we've heard it from, you know, Scott, percent that they're going to take out 30% of the float of the 20 and 30 year from the Treasury market. It hasn't done much though for them. Are we not believing him like what's going on? I think the market is saying we want more.

I think that is not a you're killing me. I mean, the cynicism here is too much. Let's get them in trouble with compliance for show. As simple as I can is Scott Benson the house and the house is losing right now. Uh, so I think what what the issue is that the agencies, whether it is the fed or the Treasury on the other side, are trying to I would I would use the word manipulate prices, which are not what fundamentals are telling us to wind up folks, you know, into the real world.

And the show can do it. Morgan Stanley I want to look at the inflation adjusted yield. There's a number of ways to look at it. I just did a survey of the two year, which is sort of flattish over the last number of days, the 30 year real yield has certain momentum to it higher. And what I see here, particularly if I run a log y axis showing percent change of the rate of change of that, you move. I'm sorry. Real yields are on a tear.

What is the significance if they move up to a new level. So the ten year real yield pops a 3%. It's tough for asset allocators and investors to ignore the power of income in that real income that is coming out there. Now, if you look at the market has been doing a fantastic job over the last probably 100 basis points of sell off, 95% of that selloff is coming from real yields rather than inflation. Stop there for this is so important folks.

Explain why what you just said is because this is a growth thing. This is clearly a growth, not an issue. I know we are treating this as an issue, but it's a constructive nominal GDP growth thing of the vibrancy of America. That's why the fed is having a difficult time to see. That was Richard Burner one on one. Just so you know, if we continue here, if we see a new love breaking up higher, I think I think looking forward, it's difficult to produce negative returns mathematically in fixed income because the income power is going high.

I know it is dismal returns this year again because your, you know, the amount of duration selloff that you've had. But looking forward mathematically, it's just difficult to produce negative returns. So I don't think that we are pushing back our income probabilities. I think we need a catalyst for duration to rally here. That's what I think the market is searching for. What is an investor to do with fixed income, though?

Right now somebody listening saying, okay, what about how does this relate to my portfolio? Because it can be a really confusing world out there when it comes to fixed income. Yeah, there's a lot of income where the money is coming from cash into fixed income, where the money is coming from. Some of the equity gains that investors have enjoyed because of real growth, increasing the steepness of the curve and the starting yields are very attractive.

So we are seeing money moving into fixed income, at least on a 0 to 7 year part.