Bloomberg Surveillance：美债收益率飙升与美联储加息预期升温

THERE ARE HUGE OPPORTUNITIES HERE IN THE MIDST OF A PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY.

WE ARE KIND OF CHASING THIS NUMBER WHERE THE LIMIT DOES NOT EXIST.

MARKETS DO NOT MOVE ON GOOD OR BAD, THEY MOVE ON BETTER OR WORSE.

WE ARE IN LIKE THE SECOND INNING SO THIS IS JUST GOING TO CONTINUE.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. ♪ JONATHAN: LIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY THIS MORNING, GOOD MORNING, GOOD MORNING. FOR OUR AUDIENCE WORLDWIDE, "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" STARTS RIGHT NOW. ♪ COMING INTO THURSDAY BUILDING ON A BOND ROUT, INVESTIGATORS SENDING GLOBAL BONDS LOWER, SENDING YIELDS TO DECADE HIGH S. ADDITIONAL FEDERAL RESERVE OFFICIALS APPEARING TO SIGNAL DAVE GOT MORE WORK TO DO.

LISA: YESTERDAY IT WAS FED GOVERNOR MICHAEL BARR SAYING WE WERE OUT OF POSITION, MADE AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION BUT WENT ON TO SAY IN THE SPEECH THAT HE WAS MAKING A CHICAGO, IN MY BASE CASE, FURTHER POLICY ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED TO ENSURE INFLATION COMES DOWN TO TARGET IN A TIMELY FASHION. IT WAS A PERFECT STORM YESTERDAY BECAUSE FUELING A LOT OF THESE CONCERNS THAT ONLY WERE HIGH OIL PRICES BUT ALSO THAT THE U.S.

ECONOMY WAS RUNNING HOT ENOUGH TO KEEP INFLATIONARY PRESSURES PREEMINENT AND OFFICIALS NOT WANTING. TO BE OFF-SITE. JONATHAN: TWOS LOOKING AT 4.90. LET'S CALL IT 5.15 ON 10'S. THE DATE IS NOT JUST STRONG, IT IS STRENGTHENING. THAT IS A NOD TO SOMETHING KEVIN WARSH AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE’'S WEEK AGO. LISA: THAT WAS HIS BASE CASE COMING INTO THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND TAKING THE POSITION OF CHAIR. YESTERDAY WE GOT THOSE PMI'S.

THE COMPOSITE PMI UNEXPECTEDLY SURGING TO A FIVE-YEAR HIGH IN THE UNITED STATES. THIS IS A REALLY SIGNIFICANT BEAT. A SIMILAR BEAT IN EUROPE. IF YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT DEMAND DESTRUCTION, CONCERN NO MORE, MAYBE THIS IS WHY YOU SEE THE BROADENING OUT PRESSURE START TO TAKE. ANNMARIE: WHETHER OR NOT IT IS BETTER THAN EXPECTED DATA, THE FACT THAT BARR IS COMING OUT AND SAYING WE HAVE MORE WORK TO DO TO BRING INFLATION DOWN.

WE HAD A WEEK AUCTION WHEN IT COMES TO FIVE-YEAR NOTES. THE CHERRY ON TOP IS THAT OIL IS ONCE AGAIN GRINDING HIGHER. JONATHAN: INTRODUCING SOME DOUBTS EVEN INTO THE BELLY OF THE CURVE ABOUT HOW MY SHORT THIS FED HAS GUTTED. A WEEK OR SO AGO, 75 BASIS POINTS OF HIKES WAS CONSIDERED UPSIDE RISK, THE RISK TO THE UPPER-END. THE LIKES OF DEUTSCHE BANK, BNP PARIBAS OUT POINTING OUT THAT IS THE FLOOR FOR THEM, THREE HIKES. LISA: THE MARGATE GETTING THROUGH WITH A 50-50 CHANCE THAT MAY BE 75 IS THE FLOOR.

THE IDEA OF A $70 BILLION AUCTION OF FIVE-YEAR NOTES COME YESTERDAY AND THE IDEA THAT THE BID, ASKED TO BID SPREAD WAS THE WORST GOING BACK TO 2018. THIS WAS CONCERNING FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE BUT REALLY TALKS ABOUT THE OTHER ISSUE HERE, WHICH IS ULTIMATELY WE ARE GETTING WITH A GLUT OF DEBT SALES AND THIS GOES BEYOND INFLATION, BEYOND ACTIVITY, BEYOND JUST HAWKISH RHETORIC. THIS GOES TO THE SUPPLY DEMAND BACKDROP THAT HAS PERMEATED THIS ENTIRE MARKET OF 0 TRILLION BUILDOUT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

JONATHAN: CRUDE IS NOT HELPING. CHECK OUT CRUDE THIS MORNING. WTI AROUND 93. A FIERY SPEECH AT THE U.N. FROM THE IRANIAN LEADER NOT HELPING THE SITUATION EITHER. LISA: WHAT DO YOU EXPECT? THE IRANIAN PRESIDENT WAS GOING TO BE ON NEW YORK SOIL AND GIVE A FIERY SPEECH. YOU HAVE AN ADVISOR TO THE SUPREME LEADER SAYING THIS MORNING NOW THAT THE WAR HAS EXPANDED FROM THE PERSIAN GULF AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO THE RED SEA, IT MAY IN THE NEXT PHASE THE POTENTIAL CONFLICT WIDEN FURTHER AND EXTEND TO THE INDIAN OCEAN OR ELSEWHERE.

JONATHAN: YOU TALK ABOUT THE DIESEL EXPORT BAN IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. WE WILL SPEND SOME TIME ON THAT. LOOK AT WHAT IT MEANS FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE. DOLLAR-YEN, FIVE DAYS OF YEN WEAKNESS. DOLLAR-YEN HAVING ANOTHER LOOK AT 160. WHY? BECAUSE IF YOU INTRODUCE A DIESEL EXPORT BAN, YOU ARE INTRODUCING A RISK THAT YOU EXACERBATE THE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCK FOR THE JAPANESE AND OTHERS AND THAT SPEAKS TO THE YEN WEAKNESS WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING.

LISA: IT IS A TERMS OF TRADE SHOCK THAT HAS ONLY ESCALATED WITH HIGHER DIESEL PRICES. ON THE OTHER SIDE, THE IDEA OF THE U.S. TIGHTENING POLICY THAT MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVELY STRENGTHENS THE DOLLAR. WE HAVE SEEN THE DOLLAR STRENGTHENING AROUND THE WORLD, WHICH ONLY TIES THE HANDS OF THE JAPANESE THAT MUCH MORE. IT IS A DIFFICULT SITUATION. WHO IS THE HOUSE NOW? JONATHAN: DOLLAR YEN APPROACHING 160. WE WILL CATCH UP WITH KEITH LERNER OF INTEREST, MARY LOVELY OF THE PETERSON INSTITUTE AS THE U.S.

AND CHINA BY MORE TIME FOR TRADE TALKS AND TED MORTENSEN AS THE BOND ROUT BATTERIES THE TECH TRADE. WE BEGIN WITH SURGING TREASURY YIELDS. ELEVATED RATES AND ENERGY PRICES ARE DRIVING THE NARRATIVE, CREATING HEADWINDS AND A BUMPIER PATH FOR MARKETS BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY DERAIL ECONOMIC OR PROFIT GROWTH. GOOD TO SEE. THE TWO YEAR THIS MORNING IS WHERE THE 10 YEAR WAS AT TWO WEEKS AGO. WHY CHASE STOCKS INTO YEAR END?

GOOD POINT. ONE OF MY THESIS COMING INTO THIS MONTH WAS THAT WE MOVED PAST EARNINGS SEASON, WE HAD THIS EARNINGS DRIVEN MARKET THAT REALLY SUPPORTED STOCKS AND WE WERE MOVING TO A MACRO MARKET WHICH WAS GOING TO BE MUCH MORE TWO-WAY. IN SOME WAYS, IS EVEN BEEN MORE EXTREME. IT IS A LITTLE CHILLY IN NEW YORK BUT IT IS HOT IN THE BOND MARKET RIGHT NOW. BUM-BUM. IT IS INTERESTING, BECAUSE WE DEAL WITH PRIVATE WEALTH, ASSET ALLOCATION.

I THINK 5% YIELDS ARE GETTING PRETTY ATTRACTIVE. IT HAS BEEN A PRETTY SHARP RESET. I ULTIMATELY THINK THAT MARKETS REALLY SINCE JUNE, THE S&P HAS BEEN FLAT AND A LITTLE BIT DUMB. EQUAL WEIGHT INDEX DOWN 5%, SMALL CAPS DOWN 7%, SENTIMENT GETTING MORE NEGATIVE. THE VALUATIONS HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN BUT I THINK WE HAVE RESET THINGS. I THINK WE ARE IN THIS KIND OF SEASONAL WEAKNESS THAT THIS YEAR IT IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE. I ULTIMATELY THINK AFTER WE GET THROUGH THIS, WE WILL REFOCUS ON PROFITS, I THINK PROFITS WILL STILL BE INTACT, SPECIFICALLY ON THE TECHNOLOGY SIDE.

I DON'T THINK IT HAS TO BE EITHER OR. I THINK TINA IS NOW SOMEWHAT DEAD SO WE DO HAVE TO SAY THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE. JONATHAN: THERE IS ONE.

I ALSO THINK YOU CAN HAVE A MORE BALANCED PORTFOLIO AND DO OK. JONATHAN: EITHER YOU BELIEVE IT IS A REFLECTION OF STRONG GROWTH TODAY OR A HEADWIND TO FUTURE RETURNS TOMORROW. HOW WAS YOUR FRAME THIS BOND MARKET FOR CLIENTS THIS MORNING?

I THINK THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH BECAUSE WE HAVE THOSE WERE THE POWERFUL NUMBERS ADJUSTED ON THE PMI'S YESTERDAY BUT I THINK THERE IS THIS TENSION BETWEEN THAT AND THAT, HOW MUCH DOES THE FED NEED TO INCREASE RATES TO SLOW THE ECONOMY DOWN? IF WE WERE SITTING AT THREE MONTHS AGO AND YOU SAID WE ARE AT 00 IN OIL PRICES, THE 10 YEAR IS AT THIS, WHAT DO YOU EXPECT IN THE ECONOMY? PROBABLY WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF A SLOWDOWN.

LISA: DOES THIS STOCK MARKET HAVE THE IDEA OF TWO MORE RATE HIKES BAKED IN OR IS IT SOMETHING THAT EQUITY INVESTORS STILL HAVE TO RECKON WITH IN THE FORM OF MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF A MULTIPLE COMPRESSION?

I THINK UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE, WE HAVE BEEN CONTRACTING OR CORRECTING FOR SEVERAL WEEKS, SEVERAL MONTHS. IF YOU LOOK AT THINGS THAT ARE ADJACENT TO INTEREST RATES, HOMEBUILDING, RETAILERS, THE EQUAL WEIGHT INDEX, THEY ARE ALL CORRECTING ALREADY SO I THINK THE MARKET IS PROGRESSING ON THIS. IF I LOOK AT A TECHNICAL METRIC HAS HOW MANY STOCKS ARE ABOVE THEIR 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE, THAT'S DOWN TO ABOUT 30? TYPICALLY YOU GET TO BELOW 20%, THAT BEGINS TO BE OVERSOLD.

AFTER THE FED RAISED RATES RECENTLY, WHAT IS THAT TEND TO MEET FOR MARKETS? ? OVER THE LAST SIX TIMES THEY HAVE DONE THIS, OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR THREE MONTHS, THE MARKET IS ONLY UP 17% OF THE TIME. WHAT WE ARE SEEING A SOMEWHAT NORMAL. IT DOES NOT FEEL GREAT. AS YOU EXTEND YOUR TIME HORIZON OVER THE NEXT YEAR, MARKETS TEND TO REBOUND AND WE THINK THAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN AGAIN BECAUSE WE THINK EVEN IF THE ECONOMY SLOWS DOWN, WE THINK THE AI AND TECH STORY IS STILL A DOMINANT THEME.

BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL SLOWDOWN THAT COULD HAPPEN BECAUSE