Bloomberg：美联储点阵图偏鹰，美元与美债仍有上行空间

Your thoughts, then post the fed. There was quite a bit of hawkish news for those who wanted to see that, both in the Dot plot and indeed in what Kevin Walsh then had to say. How are you thinking about how Treasury markets behave and how many hikes we get from the fed? So I think it was definitely a hawkish FOMC. We've got to remember that the hike was not fully priced and it was unanimous. The median rate in the dot plot is higher.

Uh you know I think so even going into the meeting even all those people I know, including people on my own team who still thought a hike was folly and wasn't gonna, you know, didn't want to believe it was going to happen a week ago, said, okay, fine, maybe they'll deliver a hike. It wasn't a dovish hike. It was a hawkish like, uh. So I think that that restores credibility to the market. That's a good thing for bonds.

It's a good thing for stocks ultimately. Now I don't think it's a big driver of stocks. But I think it is ultimately supportive that we're getting, you know, the most important central bank in the world is saying, hey, we're actually going to take our job seriously. Again, something that's been in doubt for the last two years. So that's a very positive message. I'm slightly surprised the curve hasn't flattened more long and bonds have done well.

But as you pointed out, I think the biggest driver at the moment is really oil prices. I still think oil prices have an asymmetric risk for bigger downside moves that upside moves. Ever since Trump out of the risk premium last week. I don't know the path of what's going on in the Middle East, but I think the next big move is lower by the dollar. I think the dollar has more upside in the same way that I think treasuries should rally from here.

On, the impetus towards more fed credibility and taking the inflation mandate seriously more through flattening. And you know, maybe, maybe the treasuries move won't go as far as I was kind of previously hoping if they're going to be really kind of raising rates more at the front end. But that restoration of credibility, that idea that it was a hawkish fed. Yeah I think the dollar has more upside. Remember this is this is maybe a slight hawkish shift.

Or 24 hours ago. But it's quite a big hawkish shift from where we were a week ago. And it's a very big hawkish shift from where we were a month ago, and I don't think that's fully priced in yet. So yeah, I think there's more upside. And I think treasuries have more upset. And where does that leave the rest of the world and central banks than we were just having a conversation about the Bank of England. And we still got the budget to come.

I think, you know, generally it puts upward pressure on yields on the front end around the world. Uh, if they weren't already so high. So what it does is it gives central banks the kind of cover or the pressure to deliver on the on the aggressive hikes that are now priced in many places. Of course, the Bank of England won't hike today, but I think it actually puts them in a tough spot because they're one of the few central banks who are not priced to hike at the immediate meeting, and therefore they're going to be like, you're the one who's behind the curve.

And I think that puts more pressure on sterling as a result. Bank of Japan will surely hike, but again, it puts pressure on the currency because now they've got to deliver a very hawkish hike to change the upward momentum and dollar yen which has fully restored itself.