跳到主内容
@wquguru
精选85PBS NewsHour(YouTube)宏观多源精选 ×22

美联储加息25基点,Warsh首秀示独立抗通胀

Interest rate hike a ‘reassuring’ sign Fed is acting independently, economist says

原文
发到 X
推荐理由

央行已落地的政策决定,且涉及新主席独立性的关键信号,直接影响全球资产定价逻辑。

AMNA: WELCOME TO THE "NEWS HOUR." THE FEDERAL RESERVE RAISED INTEREST RATES TODAY BY A QUARTER OF A POINT, THE FIRST TAKEN THREE YEARS. GEOFF: THE FIRST MAJOR MOVE BY FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH TO COMBAT INFLATION. PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS PRESSURED THE FED TO LOWER INTEREST RATES, BUT KEVIN WARSH FOR MONTHS INTO THE JOB AFTER BEING HANDPICKED BY TRUMP TO LEAD THE FED EXPLAINED WHY THE COMMITTEE VOTED UNANIMOUSLY TO RAISE RATES TODAY.

AMNA:欢迎收看《新闻时刻》。美联储今日加息25个基点,这是三年来首次采取行动。GEOFF:这是美联储主席凯文·沃什为应对通胀采取的首次重大举措。特朗普总统曾施压美联储降息,但由特朗普亲自挑选领导美联储的凯文·沃什在任职数月后解释为何委员会今天一致投票决定加息。

THE LEAST WELL-OFF ARE THE ONES WHO HAVE THE MOST TO GAIN FROM STABLE PRICES. THE DECISION WE MADE TODAY WAS THE RIGHT DECISION TO DELIVER OWN OF THE REMIT CONGRESS GAVE US TO ENSURE STABLE PRICES. MOREOVER I WOULD SAY BECAUSE OF THE UNDERLYING STRENGTH OF THE ECONOMY, BECAUSE WE ARE AS I MENTIONED LARGELY ACTING CONSISTENT WITH FULL EMPLOYMENT, WE CAN BE FOCUSED ON STABLE PRICES. SOME MONTHS AGO I SAID WE WOULD DELIVER STABLE PRICES IN TODAY'S ACTION IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT.

处境最不利的人群从物价稳定中获益最大。我们今天做出的决定是正确的,旨在履行国会赋予我们的确保物价稳定的职责。此外,我想说,鉴于经济的基本面强劲,正如我提到的,我们很大程度上是在充分就业的背景下行动,因此我们可以专注于稳定物价。几个月前我曾表示我们将实现物价稳定,今天的行动与此一致。

GEOFF: FOR MORE WE ARE JOINED BY JULIA CORONADO, AN ECONOMIST AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN WHO RUNS HER OWN FIRM CALLED ACRO POLICY PERSPECTIVES -- MACROPOLICY PERSPECTIVES , WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. JULIA: THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. GEOFF: WHAT DOES THIS TELL US ABOUT PORSCHE AS A FED CHAIR COMMITTED TO FIGHTING INFLATION AND WORSHIP -- WARSH AS A FED CHAIR WHO WILL BE INDEPENDENT? JULIA: A PRETTY QUICK TURNAROUND FROM AN OFFICIAL NOMINATED TO BRING RATES DOWN AND I THINK THAT IS REFLECTIVE OF THE DATA AND THE COMMITTEE.

GEOFF:为此我们连线了德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的经济学家朱莉娅·科罗纳多,她经营着一家名为宏观政策视角(MacroPolicy Perspectives)的公司——欢迎参加本节目。JULIA:谢谢邀请。GEOFF:这告诉我们关于致力于抗击通胀的美联储主席保时捷(注:此处原文疑似口误或识别错误,结合上下文应为Warsh/沃什)以及作为将保持独立性的美联储主席沃什,有何启示?JULIA:从一位被提名来降低利率的官员到如今的转变相当迅速,我认为这反映了数据情况和委员会的态度。

THE COMMITTEE IS LOOKING AT THE DATA AND AS HE DESCRIBED, UNEMPLOYMENT IS LOW, INFLATION IS HIGH, THAT'S A PRETTY SIMPLE FORMULA FOR CENTRAL BANKERS. THERE WAS A LOT OF SUPPORT, IT WAS A UNANIMOUS DECISION. AND MOST OFFICIALS THINK IT IS NOT THE LAST OF THE RATE HIKES, SO MORE LIE AHEAD. GEOFF: BRING THIS DOWN TO THE HOUSEHOLD LEVEL. WHAT GETS MORE EXPENSIVE AND HOW QUICKLY? JULIA: WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN LONGER-TERM INTEREST RATES BACK UP.

委员会正在审视数据,正如他所描述的,失业率很低,通胀率很高,这对央行来说是一个相当简单的公式。此次决策获得了广泛支持,是一致通过的。大多数官员认为这并非最后一次加息,因此未来还有更多加息。GEOFF:让我们回到家庭层面。什么变得更贵了?速度有多快?JULIA:我们已经看到长期利率回升。

OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO, WE HAVE SEEN A TREMENDOUS RISE IN BORROWING COSTS REFLECTING EXPECTATIONS THE FED WOULD NEED TO RAISE RATES, REFLECTING SOME OF THE GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS WE ARE SEEING RIPPLE THROUGH THE COMMODITIES MARKETS. AND THE INFLATION DATA ITSELF JUST SHOWING A LOT OF PERSISTENCE. SO IN A SENSE THE BORROWING COST CONSUMER SPACE HAS INCREASED, MORTGAGE RATES ARE HIGHER, AUTO LOAN RATES ARE LIKELY GOING TO RISE AS WELL SO IT IS REALLY, YOU MENTIONED, THIS IS REALLY ABOUT THE FED FOLLOWING THROUGH IN THE NEW FED CHAIR DEMONSTRATING HE IS INDEPENDENT OF POLITICS AND WILL DO WHAT THE DATA, WHAT THE ECONOMY SAYS IS NECESSARY.

过去一个月左右,我们目睹借贷成本大幅上升,这反映了对美联储可能需要加息的预期,也体现了我们正在看到的地缘政治紧张局势在大宗商品市场中引发的连锁反应。而通胀数据本身也显示出很强的持续性。因此,从某种意义上说,消费者领域的借贷成本已经上升,抵押贷款利率更高,汽车贷款利率也可能随之上涨。所以正如你提到的,关键在于美联储能否贯彻其政策,新任美联储主席能否展现出其独立性,并依据数据和经济状况采取必要措施。

I THINK IN A SENSE THAT IS REASSURING THAT THE FED IS ACTING INDEPENDENTLY. GEOFF: ON THE BORROWING COSTS YOU MENTIONED, THE 10 YEAR TREASURY HAS NOW PASSED 5%. HOW MUCH DOES THAT COMPLICATE WITH THE FED IS TRYING TO DO? JULIA: IT ACTUALLY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT THE FED IS TRYING TO DO, WHICH IS TO SLOW THE ECONOMY DOWN IN A SENSE. IT IS AN UNUSUAL PICTURE BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS BEING DRIVEN BY THIS AND AI BUILDOUT RATHER THAN THE TYPICAL HOT LABOR MARKET,

我认为,从某种意义上说,美联储独立行动这一点令人感到安心。杰夫:关于你提到的借贷成本,十年期国债收益率现已突破5%。这对美联储试图达成的目标造成了多大程度的复杂化?朱莉娅:这实际上反映了美联储正在努力做的事情,即从某种意义上减缓经济增速。这是一个不寻常的局面,因为经济正由这一因素以及人工智能基础设施建设所驱动,而非典型的强劲劳动力市场,

更进一步:量化金融体系

看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力

进入量化体系 →

关联讨论

同一事件的更多信源

相似阅读

关联信息,但可能不是同一事件