美联储加息，Worsh在记者会上回避与特朗普对话细节

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And a very good afternoon everybody. Yes indeed. Day two from Future Proof. We're live in Huntington Beach, California. And it's a special edition of Bloomberg Business Week Daily. It is brought to you by Franklin Templeton, your trusted partner for what is ahead. And we've got some clues about what's ahead courtesy of the Federal Reserve today.

Yeah. The fifth FOMC meeting and decision of the year. It's the third for the Fed chair Kevin Worsh. He's getting used to how to do this, right?

He is. Uh, and you know what? It was unanimous.

How did that happen?

Basis points.

I thought there was tension among the family.

Get inflation under control.

I guess so. And it's not [clears throat] there yet.

And a hawkish meeting. I think it's fair to say a hawkish press conference.

Well, take a look. I'm looking at 5% back again on the 10-year note. And you did see some pullback in terms of the equity trade. So, uh, it looks like we could get another rate increase this year. Um, we're talking about inflation, Tim, staying stickier a little bit longer. Um, and we had the Fed uh chairman really addressing this, but it is something that has been a focal point for the markets. When it comes to Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, he had this to say at the press conference on one of the Fed's mandates.

Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's 2% goal. I would be hardpressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the committee. So we removed a dose of accommodation

and that of course is Fed Chair Kevin Worsh at today's press conference. We want to get more on that decision. Keep in mind the next Fed decision, when is that happening? Another month. It's October. It's October.

Yeah, that's the one before the election.

That's right. So positioning is interesting.

This one is still before the election.

Well, and it's interesting. The Fed chair actually talked about geopolitical tensions and how that's impacting the economy, which to me and I think to some of the observers felt like some push back at the president.

I wanted to hear more.

You wanted to hear more.

I wanted to hear more. Yeah.

You know who you want to hear more from?

I do. Uh it's Michael McKe. He's a Bloomberg News international economics and policy correspondent. He joins us from Washington DC where he was earlier today at that FOMC press conference. Mike, there were a lot of differences. I felt like from that press conference versus other press conferences uh it was a lot shorter it felt like uh the terms of like you know how people were seated but we'll get to some of that.

The big picture though timelier that was a that was a key element of what the Fed chair said earlier. Well, it was a key element of what he said and what the statement said, but it doesn't square with what's in the summary of economic projections, which is for uh them not to get back to their target until 2029, another two years, which they do every time they put out a summary of economic projections. They push out the target date achievement to two years.

Uh and so I asked him about that and he said, "Well, that's not my projection." Because he doesn't submit projections. That's the 18 other people. Um, well, if you got 18 of your colleagues who think that's the case, then uh per perhaps there's a reason you should answer the question. Although uh although he dodged that one as in anything that was aimed at trying to get him to talk about what might happen in the future,

Mike, what didn't we get from the Fed chair um that you wanted to know more about? And is he getting better though in terms of messaging? He's definitely getting better. His statement was much better than July. Although somebody said to me uh low bar, but uh he was more direct. He offered much more insight into what others around the table were saying, which he hadn't done in the past. And uh he did give us a fairly broad description of what the the summary of economic projections said.

He did not want to touch the dot plot. Uh and that was one thing that was missing because uh we have 16 of the 18 who submit dots saying we're going to have another rate increase this year. But for him that would fall under forward guidance. So he didn't want to even acknowledge that that happened. Uh beyond that uh he was much more direct in what he was saying and much shorter as you mentioned. His answers were short and clipped and uh they didn't allow follow-up questions.

So it was uh a a completely different kind of performance. some better, some not so good.

One thing that he didn't want to touch, Mike, was anything related to questions regarding conversations with President Trump, uh what he thinks President Trump would would think about a rate increase in an environment where the president has called for the Fed to lower interest rates. I'm just curious how you're looking at that.

Oh, I don't think that's unusual. There isn't a person in government whom you ask about their conversations with the president, any president, and they would say, "I don't discuss that. That's just between me and the president." So, that's not unusual. It is an unusual situation for Worsh because he was put in the job by a man who said he wanted Kevin Worsh because he would deliver lower interest rates. So, there's always going to be this uh credibility question surrounding Worsh.

And that may be one reason that he was as hawkish sounding as he was today. We have not heard from the president. Uh we heard from one of his press aids who called the Fed's decision today unfortunate. The president is making a political speech in North Carolina tonight and perhaps he'll use that opportunity to give us his views.

Mike, based on the market um reactions, we have seen 5% once again on the 10-year. We did see uh equities pull back a little bit. Was this will most market participants and observers say this was the right move based on the inflationary pressures that are out there? Was this the right move? Did it need to be more aggressive? Did they need to hold off to the next meeting? What's the read there? Well, I think what you have to do is separate out inflation from that question because there is also a feeling that the neutral rate has moved higher and Fed officials did in their SCP raise their estimate of what the neutral rate is because of AI spending and because the consumer has remained strong, growth is stronger and Kevin Walsh emphasized that it is strengthening and so maybe we need a higher neutral rate of interest and they they need to get up to that.

We don't know what that is and we don't know specifically that that's what they're targeting. But if you look at real rates, the 10-year real rate is basically at an 18-year high now. So, uh, that might be part of it. Inflation is also part of it. Uh, he wouldn't bite on any of the inflation questions, but uh, the only thing that has surprised me really about the bond market reaction is that the 10-year is back over 5%.

The 30-year has come back down. And you would expect the long and to to flatten in this situation if the Fed has rebuilt some credibility uh by raising rates. So maybe we'll see that happen in the coming days. Uh it's always hard to get a a true measure of sentiment in the hours immediately afterwards because everybody is squaring positions.

Mike, I have no idea if you actually have a playback where you can see this. We just want you to know that Future Proof is all in on Kevin Worsh. These a