特朗普批评美联储加息,白宫称决定不幸并要求降息
Trump Calls Fed Rate Hike 'Unfortunate,' Demands a Cut
美联储罕见加息引发白宫强烈反对,政策分歧加剧宏观不确定性。关注后续通胀数据及选举前货币政策走向对资产定价的影响。
We heard from the fed chair, Kevin Warsh, a little while ago, the fed decision. And of course, the news conference that followed. Speaking to reporters, including our own Michael McKee following the unanimous decision to hike rates for the first time in more than three years, Warsh declined to comment on any potential discussions he has had with the president, even as President Trump, of course, calls for more rate cuts.
我们不久前听到了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔关于美联储决定的讲话,以及随后举行的新闻发布会。在就一致决定加息至三年多来首次进行回应时,包括我们的迈克尔·麦基在内的记者提问,鲍威尔拒绝评论他与总统可能进行的任何讨论,尽管特朗普总统当然呼吁进一步降息。
The white House today called the fed decision, quote, rather unfortunate, and the president posting on truth social interest rates in the U.S., he says, should be 1% or less because we are the best credit in the world by far. He says our country is booming with new investment. If we stop trading with every country that we have a deficit with, which is most of them, we would make at least $1.5 trillion a year lower the interest rates, he writes, lower for the United States of America and fast.
白宫今天称美联储的决定“相当不幸”,总统在真实社交(Truth Social)上发帖称,美国的利率应该是1%或更低,因为我们拥有世界上最好的信用。他表示我国正因新投资而蓬勃发展。他写道,如果我们停止与所有存在贸易逆差的国家(其中大多数国家)进行贸易,我们将每年至少少赚1.5万亿美元,因此应降低美国的利率,而且速度要快。
Joining us now live from the white House is Chris Fallon, who's chair of the white House Council of Economic Advisers. Mr. chairman, thanks for being with us today on Bloomberg on that day that the Federal Reserve do damage to the economy today? Well, yesterday, uh, I said that I thought that raising rates today, if they were going to do it, would be a mistake. They did raise rates. Uh, I think it was a mistake. Any way you measure it.
现在从白宫现场连线的是克里斯·法伦,他是白宫经济顾问委员会主席。主席先生,感谢您今天做客彭博社。在美联储今天对经济造成损害的日子里?嗯,不,昨天我说我认为如果美联储今天要加息,那将是一个错误。他们确实加息了。嗯,我认为这是一个错误。无论从哪个角度衡量都是如此。
Core headline PCE, core CPI, headline CPI. The average over the last three months of any of those is less than the average over the last three. The previous three months. Any way you measure it, inflation is coming down. CPI core year over year is at the lowest it's been in five and a half years. So what I asked yesterday is what makes today different than three months ago. Uh, I don't think that this was the right decision, but I do want to say something about fed independence.
核心PCE、核心CPI、整体CPI。过去三个月中这些指标的任何平均值都低于前三个月的平均值。无论从哪个角度衡量,通胀都在下降。核心CPI同比处于五年半来的最低水平。所以我昨天问的是,今天与三个月前有什么不同。嗯,我不认为这是正确的决定,但我确实想谈谈美联储的独立性。
Fed independence means that the Federal Reserve is the one that makes the decision, not the white House. It does not mean that members of this administration can't have an opinion or express their opinion. Is that why the president did not call out Kevin Warsh in his post today? I have that I can't speak on. Uh, but the president if Utah with his opinions I do not discuss, uh, my role as an adviser. Okay. If I could lean on your role as an adviser.
美联储独立性意味着由美联储做出决策,而不是白宫。这并不意味着本届政府的成员不能发表意见或表达观点。这就是为什么总统今天没有在帖子中点名批评杰罗姆·鲍威尔吗?我无法对此发表评论。嗯,但总统可以表达自己的观点,我不会讨论我作为顾问的角色。好的。如果我能在您作为顾问的角色基础上……
Uh, if if we understand the way in which the president thinks about the economy here in this true social post, he suggested that the U.S. needs lower rates because it's performing so well economically. If the economy is booming, in the president's words, and you were to ease policy into that, how would that not end up being inflationary? Mr. chairman, one thing I very much liked about Chairman Walsh's, uh, Jackson Hole comments was he appeared to reject the idea That you should a booming labor that he would look to the labor market where GDP numbers as a way of deciding what to set interest rates at during those.
嗯,如果我们理解总统在这个真实的社交媒体帖子中对经济的看法,他建议美国需要降低利率,因为经济表现非常好。如果经济正如总统所言正在蓬勃发展,而在这种情况下放松政策,怎么会不导致通胀呢?主席先生,我非常喜欢沃尔什主席在杰克逊霍尔的讲话的一点是,他似乎拒绝了这样一种观点:即劳动力市场繁荣时,他会参考GDP数据来决定在那段时间设定利率。
During that speech, which I was there for, he specifically said, what's going with one? That he cared about inflation most of all, that he thought that the main job, he basically said inflation is on us, the fed. And two, he would make decisions based on what inflation is, not what all these other statistics are and not what wall. He wouldn't be a slave to Wall Street. Uh, that you know what I would calling the Hall of Mirrors where the fed is constantly looking at Wall Street.
在那场我亲自出席的演讲中,他特别提到了一点:他最关心的是通胀,他认为主要职责——他基本上是说——通胀的责任在我们美联储身上。第二点,他将基于通胀情况做出决策,而不是基于其他各种统计数据,也不是基于华尔街。他不会成为华尔街的奴隶。嗯,你知道我在说的‘镜像大厅’效应,即美联储不断看着华尔街,而华尔街又看着美联储,彼此相互影响。但美联储将基于通胀做出决策。
Wall Street's looking at the fed, and they all bounce off each other that the fed would make a decision based on inflation. Well, and understanding his focus is on inflation if he were to lower rates, therefore potentially fueling greater demand, how can you have greater demand without being inflationary? I'm just wondering what the scenario is here that is ideal for this president and this white House. I personally reject that.
既然我们理解他的重点是通胀,如果他降低利率,从而可能刺激更大的需求,那么在不引发通胀的情况下,如何能有更大的需求呢?我只是想知道,这里理想的场景是什么,对这位总统和这个白宫来说。我个人反对这一点。
I think that, again, if inflation is coming down and it's coming in the right direction, the proper thing for the fed to do is to say our main job is inflation. Inflation is coming down and we'll set interest rates based on that, not on what the economy, not what on GDP is doing, not on what, uh, the labor markets. So because frankly, it's just so I understand inflation is coming down, but it's still not at target. So if the if the main goal was to get inflation to target, how was this hike a mistake.
我认为,同样地,如果通胀正在下降,并且朝着正确的方向发展,美联储应该做的是说我们的主要职责是控制通胀。通胀正在下降,我们将据此设定利率,而不是根据经济状况、GDP的表现或劳动力市场的情况。所以坦率地说,我理解通胀正在下降,但它仍未达到目标水平。因此,如果主要目标是让通胀回到目标水平,这次加息怎么会是一个错误呢?
Because inflation is not at target. Because right now I would have waited until finding out whether or not what they're currently doing stops working because it hasn't stopped working. Inflation is coming down. Yes, it is over. Target. It's been over target for 66 months. Almost all of those months. During the Biden administration. Uh, I would like to say that one of the things that's bothering me about all of this is I watched your station when this came out, and there's this constant frenzy of fed watching.
因为通胀率未达到目标。因为目前我会等到确认他们当前采取的措施是否失效,因为它尚未失效。通胀正在下降。是的,它已超标。目标。它在66个月内一直超标。在拜登政府期间,几乎整个时期都是如此。嗯,我想说的是,这一切中让我感到困扰的一点是,我观看了你们的节目,当这个话题出现时,有一种对美联储的持续狂热关注。
Everyone's looking at the fed, waiting for the announcement to come on, waiting for the press conference to come on. And, you know, here's a prop that I brought, which is just the statement with read for every, uh, word or punctuation mark that's different than the month before. People analyze these, they they go, why was the word strong replaced with the word robust? Well, that's kind of what the markets do, Mr. Chairman.
每个人都在看着美联储,等待公告发布,等待新闻发布会举行。你知道,这是我带来的一件道具,即声明文本,其中每一个与上个月不同的单词或标点符号都被标出。人们分析这些内容,他们会问,为什么“strong”(强劲)这个词被替换成了“robust”(稳健)?嗯,这就是市场先生主席所做的事情。
But Chairman Warsh very much said in his Jackson Hole speech, or at least I interpreted as let's get away from this. Let's have, uh, let's get away from the constant pretense, you know, what is the fed going to do? Uh, back and forth. What I was calling the Hall of Mirrors. We need to kind of focused today on what the fed has already done. And I appreciate your point on that, Mr. Chairman. But if we just, like, focus on his own words today, uh, what we heard from Chair Warsh, inflation is too high and has been for too long.
但沃什主席在他的杰克逊霍尔演讲中非常明确地表示,至少我是这样理解的:让我们摆脱这种状态。让我们摆脱那种不断的假设,你知道,美联储会做什么?来回摇摆。我称之为“镜像大厅”。我们今天需要专注于美联储已经做了什么。我很欣赏你在这个问题上的观点,主席先生。但如果我们仅仅像今天这样聚焦于他自己的话,嗯,我们从沃什主席那里听到的是,通胀过高且持续时间过长。
And he said this summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved. So who should the market listen to the fed or you again the fed. I don't. The administration's allowed to have an opinion. Uh, the markets the decision makers are different. I see this is the fed itself. Uh, there's no question that decision maker in the end, is the fed itself. One of the things that happens, though, with this constant fed watching is we had two amazing statistics come out yesterday.
他说,今夏的通胀数据并未告诉我基础趋势有了实质性的改善。那么市场应该听谁的?美联储还是你?又是美联储。我不这么认为。政府有权发表意见。嗯,市场的决策者不同。我认为这是美联储自身的问题。毫无疑问,最终的决策者是美联储本身。然而,随着这种对美联储的持续关注发生的一件事是,昨天有两个惊人的统计数据出炉。
One, poverty is now lowest on record. So the poverty rate in the United States is the lowest on record. Adjusted for inflation, household income is now the highest on record. All of this crazy. What is the fed going to do? What are the forecast going to do? Uh, forecast of what the fed is going to do. Constant fed watching blocks out. That these are things that I believe are more fundamental and more important. Frustration.
第一,贫困率创下历史新低。因此,美国的贫困率处于历史最低水平。经通胀调整后,家庭收入现处于历史最高水平。所有这些疯狂的事情:“美联储会怎么做?”“预测会怎么做?”嗯,是对美联储行动的预测。持续的关注美联储屏蔽了这些我认为更根本、更重要的事实。沮丧。
Well, okay. As you, uh, talk about records here, can I ask you about the record high price we are seeing for diesel across the country? This is the fuel of so many parts of the economy. If diesel remains above $6 a gallon, Mr. Chairman, when would you expect greater inflationary effects from that to feed through their homework? I have that is a very technical and interesting question. Uh, we do tend to see things show up with a lag.
好的。既然您刚才提到了数据,我想请问一下,目前全国柴油价格创下历史新高,对此您怎么看?柴油是经济中众多行业的关键燃料。主席先生,如果柴油价格持续高于每加仑6美元,您预计通胀效应何时会传导至整体经济?这是一个非常专业且有趣的问题。我们通常观察到现象的出现存在滞后性。
So for instance, when oil prices go up, uh, several months later airline prices go up. Uh, that kind of what I would call bleeding through has started to show up from the oil prices up. And it is a difficult technical forecasting question that requires more expertise than I can give you in this short interview. All right. Well, moving forward here, uh, Mr. Chairman, we just want to get a sense of not what the fed is going to do, but what the economy is going to do.
例如,当油价上涨时,几个月后航空票价才会随之上涨。这种我所谓的“渗透效应”已经开始从油价上涨中显现出来。这是一个复杂的技术性预测问题,需要比我在这简短采访中所能提供的更专业的知识。好的,接下来,主席先生,我们只想了解经济的走向,而不是美联储的行动。
And with 48 days left to the election, I wonder what your thoughts are with another fed meeting to go. The market seems to think there's another hike coming. I'm sure that's not something that you want to see. Will there be a meaningful change lower in inflation between now and November? Right now, like I said, infla
距离选举还有48天,考虑到还有一次美联储会议,不知您有何看法?市场似乎认为还会有加息。我相信这并非您乐见之事。从现在到11月,通胀率会出现有意义的下降吗?正如我之前所说,目前……
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