Bloomberg：霍尔木兹海峡通行量减半，沙特设施遇袭推高油价

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I'm going to bring in me again. This

She's got to make sense of all of that.

She's Bloomberg News oil markets reporter. She joins studio.

We've been creeping closer.

The direct directionality. You're correct, Carol.

All right, let's get to it. Um, Mia, there's a real We did see a rally in both Brent and WTI. We backed off. And so, you know, how do you read what matters to oil prices, global oil prices longer term? Is it all the war or are there other fundamentals at play here? And I'm just wondering, are we starting to kind of settle in just at a higher a higher level here?

Sure. Um, hi guys. Thanks for having me. Always fun to be here. Um, I think for all intents and purposes, the oil market is just laser focused on the war. And the question right now that's on everyone's minds is how much volume is moving through Hormuz and how do we get that number up. So what we saw today was um a hit by the Houthi rebels on several energy facilities in Saudi um Arabia. Um and that's a little bit of a sore spot for the market right now because

what are those energy facilities? What do we know about like what exactly has been hit?

So a lot of them were domestic facilities. So, the reason that the price didn't go higher today is because a lot of that feeds into the domestic market there and wouldn't necessarily impact the global market. But, of course, we had a hit near Jazison um which hosts um a a huge oil refinery, right? So, it runs like 400,000 barrels a day. Um and it's actually currently offline, which is another reason that maybe prices didn't go higher.

It's still sort of recouping from some attacks that we saw there in July. Um but just any um intent and action of um of Iran or its proxies to target that infrastructure at this time um I think is just really stoking a lot of fear in the market because as I'm sure you guys have been talking about endlessly. We're seeing really high refined products prices. So when we see damage to facilities that are actually processing them, um there's a worry that the prices could go even higher than the really exorbitant rates that we're seeing right now.

Yeah, daily a national average for for diesel according to AAA over 590 a gallon right now. I mean that and we're going to talk about that with Mike McKe in just a minute and the flow through to the to the larger economy.

But um Mia, before we do that, I I want to hear about what specifically is the choke point. Certainly the straight of horm is, but what is it about the straight of horses? Is it that ships don't want to go through because of concerns about getting attacked? Is it because insurance companies refuse to insure those ships? Is it because of a blockade setup? Like what is it specifically that is affecting flow right now?

Um it's really everything all at once, right? So we have a blockade by um the Iranians on US or US link ships. We have a blockade by the US on Iranian ships. Um we have this bifurcated sort of passageway right now where we have the

I mean I understand why oil prices are higher.

We have the um Iranian side which is controlled by the RGC that's hugging the north. um we have the um US and Omani side on the south and it's sort of tricky to go through either because the party running the other gets mad at you if you use the the route that's not theirs. Um we have a lot of pipelines um uh like the East West pipeline for example that are running capacity um

that that bypasses the straight.

Exactly. that bypassed the straight. Um, but it's obviously not enough. Um, there's not enough capacitor to totally make up what the Hormuz was for the market prior to this war.

How much are we down from prior to the war?

So, it's hard to know at the moment because a lot of the ships that are moving through Hormuz are actually this thing doing this thing called going dark. So, they're turning off their transponders to try to um

avert the wrath the wrath of the Iranian regime um and and move that oil through quietly. So, they're harder to track nowadays. Um, and no one has an exact estimate. If you did, you'd you'd be able to make a lot of money. Um, but we believe and and um the industry consensus at the moment is that the numbers moving through Hermuz at the moment are somewhere between 7 to 10 million, but prior to the war, it was about 20.

So,

so half capacity at the most.

In the best case scenario, we're 50% down. Yeah. Um, in terms of refined products and we could go through the list of what's refined, jet fuel, diesel, gasoline. Um, refined certain refineries are set up to refine certain types of oil. Correct. What's what is that that infrastructure? Because my understanding is to um, you know, the kind of oil that we need to refine, we don't necessarily make here. And to change refineries, it's expensive or to rebuild new ones.

It takes time and it takes a lot of money. Like people don't just do this

um, quickly or easily.

Absolutely. And the problem is that refinery capacity is down not just in the Middle East. So I mentioned Jazan for example as one of those plants where we don't see as many products coming out as we did before um but also in in Russia which was a major export center where Ukraine is just basically pummeling um their refineries and and cretailing the amount that's coming out from that region. So the problem is that um the US is producing a lot.

Um some refineries in some parts of the country are running at 103% capacity if you can imagine. Um but it still doesn't close that gap um that's being created by by wars across the world. Um, so the question right now I don't think is can this refinery run this um specific type of of distillate or jet fuel. Although obviously people that are um looking at that niche very closely do care about that, but it's more just like how do we increase the amount of distillate gasoline jet fuel that's coming out um overall.

All right. Yeah, it's certainly something that we see continually playing out in the markets depending on the tone and the narrative uh between this war between the US and Iran. Um Mia, thank you so much. Uh Mia Gindes, she is Bloomberg News Oil Markets reporter joining us uh here in studio.

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2:00 to 5:00 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. How often do you change your phones?

We both have Apple phones. Full disclosure.

I mean, less now than I used to. So, I have uh 13 Max Pro or 13 Pro.

Aren't we up to like 16 or something?

Oh, we're up to 17.

Yeah, I think mine's a 16.

Yeah. I mean,

I kind of wait until I think like things

No, Mark German is horrified when he finds out how old my technology is. I do need a new phone, though. It kind of uh this is the year for me.

Well, listen. Um, what we want to talk about is something that energized Apple's old CEO, who just moved aside. Uh, we're talking about Tim Cook after a trip in 2020. It's a debut of sorts, though, for Apple's new CEO as well.

A long time in the making, it will be a defining moment of sorts for one of the world's largest and best known companies. With more, Bloomberg News and managing editor for Global Consumer Tech, Mark German, in the Bloomberg News Los Angeles bureau. Mark, the road to a foldable phone for Apple. tell us more about this project codenamed V68 inside the company.

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