Bloomberg Money：油价飙升与就业数据引发美股下跌
Travel, Retail, US Open: Labor Day Edition | Bloomberg Money 9/4/2026
TOM: GOOD NOON, EVERYONE. PERSONAL FINANCE, RETIREMENT, WEALTH MANAGEMENT, THE JOYS OF LABOR DAY. THE CHILDREN GO BACK TO SCHOOL. THERE WERE TEARS. SCARLET: WE WILL GET TO IT. TOM: WHAT ARE YOU DOING LABOR DAY? TOM: I'M ACTUALLY OBSESSED WITH THIS TRIAL. IT COULD HAPPEN ANY MINUTE. OF COURSE IT IS ON PERSONAL FINANCE, RETIREMENT AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT. WE'VE GOT A REALLY, REALLY INTERESTING SHOW FOR YOU TODAY. RYAN KELLEY WILL BE WITH US.
汤姆：大家下午好。个人理财、退休规划、财富管理，劳动节的喜悦。孩子们要回学校了。当时都哭了。斯嘉丽：我们会谈到那部分。汤姆：你劳动节打算做什么？汤姆：我实际上对这个审判非常着迷。它随时可能发生。当然，这关乎个人理财、退休和财富管理。今天我们为您准备了一场非常非常精彩的节目。瑞安·凯利将与我们同在。
HE CHANGED THE WAY ALL OF US TRAVEL, ALL OF US USE --. HE'S ABSOLUTELY FOUNDATIONAL TO EACH AND EVERY ONE OF US. SCARLET: HE ACTUALLY WROTE THE BOOK ON IT. WE ALSO CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION OF HOW WE SPENT OUR MONEY. ON THE AFFORDABLE THE CRISIS IN YOUR CLOSET. IT IS FAST FASHION DEAD? TOM: ALSO WHAT ARE THEY WEARING OF A TENNIS TOURNAMENT? SCARLET: I DON'T NOW HOW YOU CAN PLAY TENNIS WITH ALL OF THAT. TOM: WE ARE REALLY LOOKING FORWARD TO THAT.
他改变了我们所有人的出行方式，我们所有人使用……他对我们在座的每一位都至关重要。斯嘉丽：他实际上为此写了书。我们也继续探讨我们如何花钱的话题。关于衣橱里的危机——廉价时尚是否已经死亡？汤姆：还有他们在网球锦标赛上穿什么？斯嘉丽：我不知道你怎么能穿着那些东西打网球。汤姆：我们非常期待这一点。
WE HAVE A GREAT LINE UP IN A FEW MOMENTS AS WELL. THE DOW DOWN 300 POINTS. GOOD JOBS REPORT, STOCKS GO DOWN. I DON'T GET IT. SCARLET: TRUMP DOESN'T LIKE TO SEE THIS DYNAMIC, HE'S MADE THAT VERY CLEAR. THE 10 YEAR YIELD, THE DOLLAR IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE BIG MOVER OF COURSE, THE YEN STRENGTHENING. STILL ABOVE $90 A BARREL. TOM: STACY SMITH IS WITH US, WE ARE THRILLED SHE IS WITH US. SCARLET: WE ARE JUST GRATEFUL. TOM: COVERING THE RED SOX-ORIOLES HERE IN A BIT.
几分钟后我们还有一大波精彩内容。道琼斯指数下跌300点。就业报告良好，股市却下跌。我不明白。斯嘉丽：特朗普不喜欢看到这种动态，他已经表达得很清楚了。10年期收益率，美元略高。当然最大的变动是日元走强。油价仍高于每桶90美元。汤姆：斯塔西·史密斯与我们在一起，我们很高兴她能来。斯嘉丽：我们心存感激。汤姆：稍后报道红袜队对阵金莺队的比赛。
MIKE MCKEE ON A JOBS REPORT, THE STATE OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. JEFF MASON COVERS THE WHITE HOUSE. IT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST.
迈克·麦基报道就业报告和美国经济状况。杰夫·梅森报道白宫情况。至少可以说这将很有趣。
WE'VE GOT A GOOD SHOW COMING UP. TOM: HE WILL TALK ABOUT THE CONVENTION HERE IN A MOMENT. FIRST, JOB ECONOMY. DOWN LAST TIME, UP THIS TIME.
我们接下来有一场精彩的节目。汤姆：他稍后会谈论这里的党代会。首先，就业与经济。上次下跌，这次上涨。
ESSENTIALLY, THAT'S WHAT ECONOMISTS ARE GOING TO DO. THEY ARE GOING TO LOOK AT THE THREE-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE WHICH IS A GOOD NUMBER CONSIDERING YOU ONLY NEED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 30 AND 52 KEEP UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FROM RISING NOW THAT WE HAVE A MUCH SMALLER LABOR FORCE. ALL THE LABOR FORCE TO GROW LAST MONTH BY QUITE A BIT. THAT HAS KEPT TO THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 4.1%. TOM: TISH JUST SO MUCH TO TALK IT UP AT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS WAGE AND THERE IS INFLATION. 100% OF THE PEOPLE I TALKED TO SAY I'M LOSING GROUND EVERY SINGLE MONTH.
本质上，这就是经济学家们将要做的。他们将查看三个月的移动平均值，这是一个不错的数字，考虑到你只需要在30到52万之间（注：原文语境可能指新增就业人数），就能防止失业率上升，因为我们的劳动力规模小得多。上个月劳动力大幅增长。这使得失业率保持在4.1%。汤姆：蒂什，有太多可谈的了。底线是存在工资问题和通货膨胀问题。我交谈过的100%的人都说，我每个月都在失去阵地。
WELL THEY ARE LOSING GROUND EVERY SINGLE MONTH. BASICALLY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ARE RUNNING LOW AND HAVE BEEN FOR A COUPLE OF MONTHS. SO YES, YOU ARE LOSING GROUND. NOT EVERY MEASURE SHOWS THAT, AND I HAD AN INTERESTING DISCUSSION WITH THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WHO WANTS TO LOOK AT AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGES BECAUSE HE SAYS THOSE ARE STILL OUTPACING INFLATION, BUT BASICALLY THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE RIGHT. THEY ARE LOSING GROUND BECAUSE OF THE LEVEL OF PRICES ISN'T GOING DOWN.
他们每个月都在失去优势。基本上，平均小时工资一直在低位运行，已经持续几个月了。所以是的，你们正在失去优势。并非所有指标都显示这一点，我曾与经济顾问委员会进行过一场有趣的讨论，他们希望查看平均周薪，因为他说这些薪资仍在跑赢通胀，但基本上美国民众是对的。他们在失去优势，因为物价水平并没有下降。
WE MAY SEE A SLOWDOWN IN THE CHANGE, THE MONTHLY CHANGE, BUT THE LEVEL OF PRICES IS STILL HIGH. SCARLET: SPEAKING OF STICKY INFLATION, STACY, YOU'VE BEEN MONITORING GAS PRICES AND IN PARTICULAR, DIESEL PRICES BECAUSE THAT IS THE ENGINE OF HOW WE MOVE THINGS AROUND THIS COUNTRY.
我们可能会看到变化放缓，即月度变化放缓，但物价水平仍然很高。斯卡莱特：说到粘性通胀，斯泰西，你一直在监测汽油价格，特别是柴油价格，因为它是推动我们在这个国家运输货物的引擎。
THIS IS APPARENTLY GOING TO BE THE MOST EXPENSIVE LABOR DAY EVER, BUT DIESEL ESPECIALLY IS THAT A RECORD HIGH FOR ALL TIME. $5.85 A GALLON. IT'S UP ALMOST 60% JUST OVER LAST YEAR, BUT AVERAGE GAS PRICES UP ABOUT 30% FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE THIS WEEKEND. IT'S GOING TO BE THE MOST EXPENSIVE LABOR DAY EVER. TOM: BUT DIESEL IS A HUGE DEAL AND IT IS NOT ANY POLITICAL DISCUSSION. SCARLET: EVERY TIME YOU BUY SOMETHING IT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE.
这显然将成为史上最昂贵的劳动节，但柴油价格尤其创下了历史新高。每加仑5.85美元。仅过去一年就上涨了近60%，但对于这个周末的人们来说，平均汽油价格上涨了约30%。这将成为史上最昂贵的劳动节。汤姆：但柴油是一个大问题，这与任何政治讨论无关。斯卡莱特：每次你买东西，它都会变得更贵。
TOM: IT'S $5.85. I THINK IT WAS NINE DOLLARS AS WELL. THE GREAT COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS, THE HOME OF BADLY REGIMEN WHO HIT HOMERS AGAINST HIS ORIOLES. IT'S NOT A CONVENTION, STOP IT. IT'S NOT A CONVENTION, RIGHT?
汤姆：是5.85美元。我认为在麻萨诸塞州也是9美元。伟大的联邦马萨诸塞州，糟糕的雷吉门的主场，他击出了针对金莺队的本垒打。这不是大会，停下吧。这不是大会，对吧？
THEY ARE CALLING IT A CONVENTION BUT IT IS NOT AN ACTUAL CONVENTION BECAUSE THERE IS NO ONE BEING NOMINATED. THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE A GATHERING AND IT'S GOING TO BE A BIG SALES PITCH FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
他们称之为大会，但这并不是真正的大会，因为没有人在被提名。他们将举行一次集会，这将是共和党的一个大型推销活动。
WILL THERE BE A VANCE OR RUBIO SIDING?
会有万斯或鲁比奥的站台吗？
I THINK YOU WILL HEAR A LOT FROM HIM. I THINK YOU'LL ALSO HEAR A LOT ABOUT KEN PAXTON WHO IS RUNNING FOR SENATE IN TEXAS, NOT DOING VERY WELL IN TERMS OF FUNDRAISING. SCARLET: IS THE PRESIDENT LOSING SUPPORT AMONG THE GOP CONSTITUENTS AND EVEN THE GOP LEADERSHIP? YOU HAD PAT HARRIGAN ADMITTING THAT WHEN IT COMES TO IRAN, VERY CLEARLY MILITARILY WE ARE STALLED AND A LOT OF CANDIDATES DON'T WANT HIM THERE WHEN THEY ARE CAMPAIGNING.
我想你会听到很多关于他的消息。我想你也会听到很多关于肯·帕克斯顿的消息，他正在竞选德克萨斯州的参议员，在筹款方面表现不佳。斯卡莱特：总统是否正在失去共和党选民甚至共和党领导层的支持？帕特·哈里根承认，在伊朗问题上，我们在军事上明显陷入停滞，许多候选人在竞选时不希望他出现在那里。
IT DEPENDS WHERE THEY ARE. THE BASE IS STILL VERY SUPPORTIVE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP FOR SURE, AND HE KNOWS THAT. BUT THERE ARE SWING STATES WHERE THERE PROBABLY DON'T WANT TO CAMPAIGN WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP.
这取决于他们在哪里。基本盘仍然非常支持特朗普总统，他当然也知道这一点。但在一些摇摆州，人们可能不想与特朗普总统一起竞选。
MR. MCKEE WOULD LIKE THE FLOOR.
麦基先生希望发言。
YOU SAID YOU WILL HEAR FROM. I DON'T THINK VERY MANY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO HEAR FROM THE REPUBLICAN MEETING DOWN IN DALLAS BECAUSE WE ARE ALWAYS TALKING ABOUT HOW CAN THEY DO THIS? THEY SCHEDULE THEIR MEETINGS UP AGAINST THE OPENING OF THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE SEASON. FIRST NIGHT PATRIOTS AND SEAHAWKS REMATCH. SECOND NIGHT, RAMS AND 49ERS. I SUSPECT THE MEETING IS FOR THE EXTRAVAGANZA IN DALLAS ARE GOING TO BE VERY LOW.
你说你会收到消息。我不认为会有太多人从达拉斯的共和党会议上得到回应，因为我们总是在讨论他们怎么能做到这一点？他们将会议安排在NFL赛季开幕之际。第一晚是爱国者和海鹰队的重赛。第二晚是公羊队和49人队。我怀疑达拉斯的盛会出席率会非常低。
PERHAPS THE ONLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COWBOYS ARE NOT PLAYING OR NOBODY IN TEXAS WOULD WATCH.
也许唯一的好消息是牛仔队没有比赛，否则德克萨斯州没人会看。
AND THE PRESIDENT IS A FORMER REALITY TV HOSE WHO LOVES TO TALK ABOUT RATINGS, SO THAT IS GOING TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR HIM.
而且总统是一位前真人秀主持人，喜欢谈论收视率，所以这对他将是一个挑战。
CAN WE JUXTAPOSE EVERYBODY'S BUSINESS, WHICH IS A HIPSTER THING, YOU GUYS WERE DOING SUCH A GREAT JOB CAPTURING A ZEITGEIST OF PEOPLE DISASSOCIATING FROM ME AND THE KEY. IN HIS WORLD OF FANCY PEOPLE IN SUITS AND TIES AND CHANEL DRESSES, IT'S LIKE TWO WORLDS APART IN AMERICA.
我们可以把每个人的业务 juxtapose（并列对比），这是一种极客行为，你们做得非常出色，捕捉到了人们与我以及钥匙脱节的时代精神。在他那个穿着西装领带和香奈儿连衣裙的精英世界里，这就像美国两个截然不同的世界。
IT IS VERY MUCH TWO WORLDS APART AND I THINK THAT'S PROBABLY ONE OF THE CHALLENGES THAT'S GOING TO COME UP AT THE CONVENTION. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE FEEL LIKE THERE ARE INCREASINGLY SEPARATED WORLDS IN THE U.S. AND THEN THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE MAKING A LOT OF MONEY. ALMOST UNIMAGINABLE AMOUNTS. I THINK THAT DIVIDE IS CERTAINLY A MAJOR POLITICAL ISSUE RIGHT NOW.
这确实是两个截然不同的世界，我认为这可能是大会期间会出现的挑战之一。我认为许多人觉得美国的两个世界日益分离，而另一些人则赚了很多钱，几乎是难以想象的金额。我认为这种鸿沟肯定是当前一个重大的政治问题。
THE PRESIDENT LIKES TO TALK ABOUT WEALTH, PRESIDING OVER A BUNCH OF STOCK MARKET HIGHS. BUT HE ALSO HAS BEEN VERY DISMISSIVE OF INFLATION, HE CALLED THAT A DEMOCRATIC HOAX.
总统喜欢谈论财富，主持着一系列股市高点。但他也对通货膨胀嗤之以鼻，称其为民主党的骗局。
EVEN PLACES LIKE OHIO AND NORTH CAROLINA, THEY ARE STARTING TO BENEFIT FROM TAX BREAKS THAT WERE ONCE UPON A TIME JUST A PROVINCE OF THE NORTHEAST IN CALIFORNIA.
即使是像俄亥俄和北卡罗来纳这样的地方，也开始受益于税收减免，这些优惠曾经只是加利福尼亚东北部地区的特权。
SUPER INTERESTING. TOM: HOW MANY MILES DO YOU HAVE?
超级有趣。汤姆：你有多少英里？
HOW MONEY MILES DO I HAVE TO TRAVEL? TOM: CAR MILES, YOU ADD THEM UP?
我要旅行多少里程？汤姆：汽车里程，你把它们加起来吗？
CREDIT CARD POINTS, I'M NOT SO GREAT ABOUT CREDIT CARD POINTS BUT I DO HAVE QUITE A FEW SAVED UP.
信用卡积分，我对信用卡积分不太擅长，但我确实存了不少。
IN TERMS OF WHAT I COULD SPEND RIGHT NOW, ON AIRLINES, A LITTLE OVER 100,000. THE KIDS USE THE MULTI-TIME. I'M CLOSE TO 2 MILLION TOTAL. TOM: 2 MILLION MILES. JEFF, HOW MANY?
就我现在可以花费的而言，在航空公司方面，略超过10万。孩子们使用多次时间。我总共接近200万。汤姆：200万英里。杰夫，你呢？
I'M DOING SOMETHING WRONG BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW. I DON'T THINK I HAVE ANYWHERE NEAR THAT MANY. SCARLET: 70,000 ON ONE CARD, 40,000 ON THE OTHER. TOM: I HAVE 500,000 TOTAL AND THEY ALL GO TO THE KIDS. IT'S A RACKET. THANK YOU THREE FOR SHOWING UP, REALLY APPRECIATE IT. RYAN KELLEY CHANGED OUR WORLD. WE ARE GOING TO TALK TO BRIAN KELLY HERE. THE POINTS GUY, THE FOUNDER OF THE WEBSITE. STAY WITH US. IT IS A SPECIAL EDITION, A LABOR DAY ADDITION.
我做错了什么，因为我不知道。我想我没有那么多。斯卡利特：一张卡上有7万，另一张有4万。汤姆：我总共有50万，全都给了孩子们。这是个骗局。感谢三位到场，真的很感激。瑞安·凯利改变了我们的世界。我们将在这里与布莱恩·凯利交谈。积分达人，网站创始人。请继续收看。这是一期特别版，劳动节特辑。
HOT OR COLD LOBSTER? HOT? TOM: SPECIAL EDITION OF "BLOOMBERG MONEY." LABOR DAY EDITION. THEY LIKED HER SHOW ON PERSONAL FINANCE, RETIREMENT, WEALTH MANAGEMENT -- A FUN SHOW ON PERSONAL FINANCE, RETIREMENT, WEALTH MANAGEMENT. BRIAN KELLY CHANGED PERSONAL FINANCE WITH THE POINTS GUY. HOW DID THE WEBSITE START? WHAT WAS THE FIRST WEEK, MONTH LIKE? BRIAN: I WAS WORKING AT MORGAN STANLEY. I WAS A CORPORATE RECRUITER AT COLLEGE CAREER FAIRS.
热龙虾还是冷龙虾？热的？汤姆：《彭博财经》特别版。劳动节特刊。他们喜欢她关于个人理财、退休和财富管理的节目——一档有趣且涵盖个人理财、退休和财富管理的节目。布莱恩·凯利凭借“积分达人”改变了个人理财领域。这个网站是如何起步的？最初几周或几个月的情况如何？布莱恩：我当时在摩根士丹利工作，是一名企业招聘专员，负责校园招聘活动。
I WAS SO GOOD WITH MY POINTS BECAUSE I WOULD PUT ALL OF IT ON MY CORPORATE AMEX. FOR $95 A YEAR, YOU CAN GET ALL OF THE POINTS. I BECAME THE POINTS GUY AT MORGAN STANLEY. I PUT ALL OF THE FARES ON MY CARD AND WAS RAKING IN THE POINTS. I STARTED IT AS A WAY TO SHARE WITH THE CORPORATE TRAVELER. IN 11 MONTHS, IT BLEW UP. SCARLET: IT TOOK OFF. YOUR BOOK CAME OUT IN 2025 IN WHICH YOU LAY OUT YOUR THESIS THAT POINTS ARE A CURRENCY.
我之所以能攒下大量积分，是因为我会把所有消费都刷在我的公司美国运通卡上。每年支付95美元年费，你就能获得所有积分。我在摩根士丹利成了“积分达人”。我把所有的差旅费用都刷在这张卡上，从而赚取了大量积分。我开始创建这个网站是为了与商务旅行者分享这些信息。在11个月内，它迅速走红。斯嘉丽：它一炮而红。你的书于2025年出版，你在书中提出了一个观点，即积分是一种货币。
HOW MUCH DEVALUATION HAVE WE SEEN IN THIS CURRENCY AFTER THE PANDEMIC AND THE WO
在疫情之后，这种货币经历了多大的贬值？
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
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