美国就业数据强劲，9月加息概率回升至60%

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the most recent jobs report as it came in really hot. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. As a reminder, the ITC conference is coming up in late November, so make sure to get your ticket.

Let's go ahead and jump in. So we actually had a relatively hot jobs report today and in in a sense yesterday we had one of the members of the Federal Reserve uh Waller he came out and said that he was more so leaning in the direction of holding rates constant. Now, when he did that, the market expectations of a rate hike in September dropped from 66% or so down to around 50%. So, yesterday, the market was then less clear if we were in fact going to get a rate hike and was starting to lean more towards it's a coin flip.

But with the recent jobs report today, the it kind of undid to some extent what Waller was saying yesterday, right? So we're now right back up to 60%. Not quite as high, right? It's not at like 66 67%. It's not 2/3 1/3, but 60% chance of a rate hike. I was curious, you know, and and I I was thinking about this when you look at at just current probabilities for for a rate hike and and and think about it as yesterday when it was 5050, but I was wondering like, you know, has there really been many times in history where we're only two weeks away from the next Fed meeting and the odds are are are like this, like approximately 50/50.

Because from my memory, and I'm not saying it hasn't happened before, but just as I'm sort of thinking about it right now, from my memory, normally when you're within one or two weeks of the meeting, the market like the the market expectations of what's actually going to happen tends to be closer to like 80 to 90%. So, I I think what it essentially does is it it almost makes the stakes higher in every single data point that happens because there's just a lot of uncertainty, right?

And of course, markets generally are not a huge fan of uncertainty. And so when you do get these slight changes, it can then have more adverse effects on on markets and and so we'll see what the Fed does. My guess is if they don't raise rates, you'll just see the long end of the yield curve continue to go higher. So, I know they keep fighting the long end of the yield curve. Uh, and of course, Bessant with the uh, you know, the the Treasury the the bond buybacks, but one of the most effective ways to combat the long end of the yield curve would just be to raise rates.

But that's also like the one thing that the current administration really has no interest in in them doing. So, we'll see what happens. I mean the Fed again is theoretically an independent body and they do not you know need to sort of oblige the current administration but we will in fact see I I think what we what we have seen what we have seen is a um a transition from a Fed with Powell where there were there were not a whole lot of dissenting voices.

Right? I I think that the Fed chair was able to do a good job of kind of getting everyone on the same page. But if you look at the last Fed meeting, there were three dissents, right? Three people wanted to raise rates. And so I I think it it's almost becoming this more of an independent thing, right? Rather than getting everyone on the same page, there's a lot more dissense. And I I think we'll probably continue to see that as as time goes on.

So let's dive into what actually caused the odds of the rate hike to go back up to 60%. So, first of all, you have the unemployment rate and and it's now back at it's still at 4.1%. So, again, the labor market is historically fine. Again, with it being low, that's not in and of itself a declaration that things can't get worse at some point, as nonlinear accelerations and the unemployment rate often start from low levels.

But again, who knows how many months or even years away we are from that. So in the short term, the market is far more concerned about inflation than it is a a recession caused by a weak labor market. And it's not just the unemployment rate, right? Because the unemployment rate has been coming down and while and since November of 2025. And while the unemployment rate has been going down, the um you know, other things have have also gone down.

And one of the things that, you know, we've we've talked about some is the non-farm payroll. So if you look at at the employment level and and look at non-farm payroll last month, it was actually negative, but in the recent report, it was revised back to being positive. So again, it's it's interesting that markets react so much on the news of of you know, these data points that come in when the next month it all just gets revised.

Anyways, but what this shows you is that the the labor market isn't quite as bad, right? If you take the year-over-year change, you can see that when it goes negative, that is where recessions occur, right? When this chart goes negative, and we came really close back in late 2025 and early 2026, but didn't happen, right? And now it's starting to accelerate again off of the lows. So, the lowest it got was back in in December of 2025.

The year-over-year non total non-farm payroll difference was 116,000. We're back up to 600. We're back up to 603,000. So, the labor market is actually showing signs of being resilient. It is right. And again, that's just what's happening, right? I mean, you can pretty clearly see it that the labor market has been improving and and this report confirms it. So, one of the things that Waller did say was he he said that that while he's leaning more towards holding rates constant, it wouldn't take him it wouldn't take much for him to be in the other camp, right, of of a rate hike.

And and so, one of the things you could look at is average hourly earnings. That one has also just continued to climb. Now, when you look at it from a year-over-year perspective, it's been dropping. So, it's moving in the direction of where they wanted to go. The question is is it moving fast enough? And as it stands right now, the market clearly doesn't think so. Now, we're going to have the next Fed meeting on September 16th.

All right. There's also going to be a Bank of Japan meeting around that time. I would expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates. Okay. So they're they're very very likely going to raise rates. In fact, the Bank of Japan might end up raising twice potentially before the end of the year. If you were to go look at interest rates over in Japan, they're currently 1%. But if you look at the 2-year yield in Japan, and let's actually go ahead and add this to the same axis as as the other one.

What you'll notice is that the 2-year yield is all the way up at 1.74%. And there's an argument to be made that, you know, the 2-year yield is essentially showing the Bank of Japan where interest rates need to be. So, I would argue you're likely going to have a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September. And there's a good chance you might have another one before the end of the year, potentially around the December time frame and maybe sooner, but I I would say, you know, September, December can make could make a lot of sense to get two more rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.

That would then get rates up to about 1.5%. So that's the direction I think the the Bank of Japan is going. Now, for the Fed, I think they likely will raise once. I'm not as sure about the second time. Okay. you know, one time might be enough and and it's going to depend on a lot of things. You know, one of the reasons why I expect inflation to remain sticky here in the short term is if you look at at I mean again, I'm not a geopolitical expert.

I am not claiming to be one, but I don't have to be a geopolitical expert to just look at the price of oil, right? And and the price of oil i