欧亚集团主席：伊朗战争持续重创全球经济并推高通胀

FOR THE PBS NEWS HOUR, I'M LIZ LANDERS. GEOFF: FOR PERSPECTIVE ON THE LATEST FLAREUP IN THE WAR WITH IRAN AND THE IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WE TURN TO CLIFF KUPCHAN, CHAIRMAN EMERITUS AT THE CONSULTING COMPANY EURASIA GROUP AND SENIOR FELLOW AT THE THINK TANK CENTER FOR THE NATIONAL INTEREST. THANKS FOR BEING WITH US. SO WHAT HAS THE WAR WITH IRAN MEANT FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY SO FAR? CLIFF: IT HAS MEANT AND CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR IRRITATION, A MAJOR DEBT.

CERTAINLY THIS WAR IS NOT GOING TO END ANYTIME SOON. HIGH ENERGY PRICES, NOT JUST OIL AND LNG, BUT REFINED PRODUCTS, STOKE INFLATION. YOU HAVE GOT THIS NATURAL BODY OF WATER THAT IS A CHOKEPOINT FOR SO MUCH OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, FOR OIL, LNG, REFINED PRODUCT, HIGH-TECH, FERTILIZER. JUST A LOT OF THINGS WE USE EVERY DAY GO THROUGH THE STRAIT, AND IT'S GOING TO BE A RISKY PROPOSITION GETTING STUFF OUT OF THERE FOR A LONG TIME.

GEOFF: OIL PRICES HAVE RISEN, NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS SOME ANALYSTS INITIALLY EXPECTED. WHY HAS THE IMPACT BEEN MORE LIMITED THAN FEARED? CLIFF: MOST ANALYSTS INDEED THOUGHT WE WOULD SEE $130, $150, AND WE HAVEN'T. $120 BUT IT DIDN'T LAST LONG. IT HASN'T BEEN AS BAD AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN, FOR A COUPLE REASONS. FIRST, MORE OIL IS GETTING OUT THAN MOST PEOPLE THOUGHT WOULD. ABOUT 8 MILLION BARRELS A DAY LAST WEEK FROM THIS GRAY ITSELF AND $12 MILLION A DAY IF YOU INCLUDE THE BACKUP PIPELINES FROM THE UAE THROUGH SAUDI.

THAT'S ABOUT 65% OF PREWAR CRUDE VOLUMES AND THAT'S A LOT OF OIL. ALSO CHINA WAS NOT BUYING THROUGH THE WAR SO FAR. HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE RECENTLY, BUT GENERALLY HAS NOT BOUGHT AS MUCH AS IT DID PREVIOUSLY FOR THE OIL RESERVES. BOTH CHINA AND THE U.S. ARE LETTING OIL OUT OF THEIR RESERVES IN AN ATTEMPT TO KEEP PRICES DOWN. SO THERE HAS BEEN MANAGEMENT. PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD AND THE CRUDE PRICE WILL GO UP. IT'S IN THE 90'S RIGHT NOW.

DIESEL AND PRODUCT PRICES WILL GO UP EVEN FURTHER. THERE IS A RESPITE, BUT IT'S NOT AN EASY ONE AND NOT A LONG ONE. GEOFF: HOW MUCH OF PRESSURE ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY CAN BE TRACED TO THE WAR AND HOW MUCH TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TRADE POLICIES? CLIFF: WE HAVE PASSED PEAK TARIFF, I THINK, PAST THE PEAK USE OF THE. TARIFF WEAPON I'D -- PEAK USE OF THE TARIFF WEAPON. I DON'T THINK A LOT OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS FROM THE TARIFFS.

MORE OF IT IS THE WAR. THAT IS WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE FEBRUARY. BUT THE ECONOMY IN THIS COUNTRY IS NOT DOING THAT BADLY, GOING ON IN PARALLEL WITH THE UNPRECEDENTED AI BOOM. I THINK MOST OF IT IS THE WAR, BUT IT'S NOT AS BAD AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN. WE HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF BOOM GOING ON IN NEW YORK. GEOFF: WHAT SHOULD WE BE WATCHING FOR THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR AND THE TARIFF POLICIES ARE BECOMING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SERIOUS?

CLIFF: TARIFF POLICY IS A ONE TRICK PONY. EITHER WE SANCTION MAJOR CHINESE REFINERIES, OR WE DON'T. I DON'T THINK THE U.S. IS ABOUT TO DO THAT, UPSET THE COMING SUMMIT, UPSET U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS, WHICH THE PRESIDENT REALLY CARES ABOUT. ON SANCTIONS