美伊冲突升级：美军深入打击伊朗并施压霍尔木兹海峡

Yes. As you noted. Escalation. There was a sharp escalation with US strikes reaching further and further inland from the Hormuz, which is really the focus of this current struggle between the United States and Iran, whether it's for control of Hormuz or denial, denial of use of Hormuz to the enemy. Um, the American side appears to be escalating in parallel to the announced, uh, escalation of economic pressure. Last week, what has been described as the economic Day on Iran.

So I think what we're seeing here is an attempt to what you might call a kinetic siege, economic pressure, sanctions and the like, being backed up with strikes, which United States have said has said have come in either in response to Iranian threats to preempt Iranian threats to shipping. And as of yesterday, strikes, some of them focused on the Iranian, uh, tanker fleet in retaliation, according to Axios, for attacks on foreign tankers by Iran in the Hormuz.

So this would be a hint to the peers by the Americans that the lifeblood energy sector of Iran, which is largely shuttered due to those sanctions due to this six month old war, could actually be in the firing line in the sights of the Americans should this conflict continue, at least in terms of a shooting war? Mhm. Well, it definitely ends this weird, tranquil but tense period in which there wasn't actually a lot of military activity, but there was no evidence of peace either.

Um, Dan, I guess this is a dumb question and I probably already know the answer, but is there any back channeling to, you know, diplomacy? Is there any willingness on either side to, to start talks about holding talks? Well, there's certainly no lack of mediators. Pakistan is still there. Oman is still there. Qatar is still there. And indeed, the Iranians, to judge by recent comments by their president, would be very happy to return to the MOU.

This would suggest, potentially, that the Iranians really are now feeling the pressure. They held out. They've been largely obedient publicly about their ability to hold out against the United States, and previously against the US ally Israel to major forces. However, now the signal from Tehran, at least in part, is that they would like to return to the MOU. I suspect, given that publicly, the US President Trump is saying he's lost all patience with diplomacy.

It appears he wants the capitulation that this Iranian overture is too little, too late. And if anything, it might feed into the narrative in Washington and elsewhere that the rest. Of the Iranian regime, an organic collapse of the Iranian regime to domestic opposition or some sort of deal which would be far better in terms of Western terms, US terms, Israeli terms specifically to do with control of Hormuz and what remains of the Iranian nuclear program.

Then we have about 30s left. I'd love to get your thoughts. Given that you are based in Jerusalem, what is the feeling within Israel about how this may play out? Well, I can tell you most plastically what the feeling is. I'm on my porch, as you can tell. And every night for the last two days we've been hearing heavy aircraft activity overhead, presumably US refueling jets that are based in Israel flying out to support those US attacks in Iran.

They could also be Israeli jets preparing to defend the skies against any Iranian missile attacks against Israel. Those have not happened. The Iranians are in no mood, apparently, to bring Israel back into this fight. Were they to do that, it would be a game changer for the Israelis, not least given an election coming up next month would be very keen to show that they are undeterred by run, potentially to see this as an opportunity to argue as such with President Trump, that it's an opportunity for the allies to come together and push the Iranian regime beyond the brink to full collapse and capitulation.