美伊冲突加剧致全球债市抛售，美债收益率创新高

THE CONCENTRATION IN TERMS OF EARNINGS GROWTH REALLY HASN'T DISSIPATED.

I THINK THERE'S A RISK AND CONCENTRATION RIGHT NOW. THE SEASONAL BACKDROP IS WEAK.

Q2 IS LIKELY TO PEAK AND EARNINGS GROWTH RATE.

LIKELY TO GRIND HIGHER THE END OF THE YEAR.

THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. JONATHAN: BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE STARTS NOW. CRUDE ELEVATED, THE U.S. MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM A DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH WITH IRAN AS UNRESOLVED ISSUES I SENDING BOND YIELDS TO FRESH HIGHS AND LEAVING SOME PROMINENT THAT OFFICIALS ON THE VERGE OF VOTING FOR HIKES. THE FED DECISION JUST TWO WEEKS AWAY. LISA: AFTER KEVIN WARSH'S BETWEEN HAVE AN ALMOST 70% CHANCE OF A FED RATE HIKE BEING PRICED AND FOR THAT MEETING OF THE ROSTER OF FED SPEAKERS COMING OUT WITH A MORE HAWKISH TILT CONTINUES TO GROW.

YESTERDAY WE HEARD FROM A FED GOVERNOR MICHAEL BARR. HE DOESN'T SPEAK OFTEN. WHEN HE HAS HE HAS VOTED TO REMAIN ON HOLD. HASN'T BEEN A HAWKISH MEMBER. HE SAID THE FED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IF INFLATION FAILS TO SUBSIDE. ALL OF THESE FED OFFICIALS, EVEN WHEN YOU HADN'T PUT IN THE HIKING CAMP, IS LINING UP BEHIND A KEVIN WARSH HAWKISH TILT TO THE MARKET. JONATHAN: GOVERNOR WALLER'S COMING UP NEXT. THE BOND MARKET MOVE SO FAR, GENERATING PLENTY OF HEADLINES. 30'S JUST SHORT OF 5.30 AND HIRE A SINGLE BASIS POINT.

THIS CAME FROM MIZUHO. IS IT A FISCAL WARNING SIGNAL OR THE NEW EQUILIBRIUM? THIS IS A REALLY GOOD PLACE TO START. I'VE HEARD SO MANY ARGUMENTS ARGUING FOR THE IDEA THIS IS THE SO-CALLED NEW EQUILIBRIUM. HOW RISK ASSETS STAND UP IN THE FACE OF THAT IS A KEY TEST OF THAT THESIS. LISA: ULTIMATELY WHAT YOU ARE SEEING IS THE UNITED STATES, THE TERM PREMIA HAVEN'T NECESSARILY INCREASED ALL THAT MUCH. GIVE HAD AN INCREASE IN EXPECTATIONS OF RATE HIKES IN THE YIELD CURVE HAS MOVED UP.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT EUROPE YOU ARE SEEING A PHYSICAL DOOM LOOP DEVELOP IN PLACES LIKE FRANCE. JAPAN, MY GOODNESS, THIS COULD BE CONSIDERED THE EPICENTER OF WHAT WE'RE SEEING WITH THE SELLOFF, 30-YEAR AND 10-YEAR GOING BACK TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1996. EUROPE, 20 11. FRANCE, 2008. YOU ARE LOOKING AT YIELDS RISING AT FASTER PACE IS IN PLACES FACING FISCAL LARGESS THAT SEEM OVERWHELMING. THE U.S. HAS A LARGE DEFICIT BUT IT HAS GDP GROWING AT A PACE THAT PEOPLE SAY COULD MAKE THIS KIND OF RATE FINE FOR THE NEW NORMAL BUT NOT NECESSARILY FOR THIS GOVERNMENT.

JONATHAN: LET'S SIT ON THAT POINT. EQUITIES HAVE HELD UP REALLY WELL STATESIDE. THE STORY OF THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT IS DIFFERENT RIGHT NOW. THE SAME REASONS PEOPLE ARE CITING PROVENCE BEING DOWN OF THE SAME REASONS PEOPLE ARE SIGNING FOR STOCKS BEING UP. PART NOMINAL GDP IS BEARISH. IT IS BEARISH FOR STOCKS. THE DEBT VENTURE RIGHT NOW THAT IS FUNDING THE BUILDOUT, THAT IS BEARISH FOR BONDS, THAT IS BULLISH FOR STOCKS, THINK IT'S IMPORTANT NOT TO LOSE STOCK OF THAT.

THE YIELDS OF MIND A LOT OF THE LAST SIX MONTHS OF EQUITIES ARE UP A LOT AS WELL. LISA: THIS IS A GOVERNMENT PROBLEM NOT NECESSARILY AN ECONOMIC PROBLEM TO HAVE YIELDS AS THE NEW NORMAL. THE PROBLEM IS, THE NEW NORMAL GLOBALLY. I THINK THAT IS THE DIFFERENCE." MUCH IS IT WHEN THE U.S. CATCHES A COLD AND NEEDS TO RAISE RATES IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY BECAUSE, GUESS WHAT, HIGH OIL PRICES ARE NOT AS DISINFLATIONARY AS PEOPLE.

THEY EVENTUALLY WOULD BECOME HOW MUCH IS THAT CREATING A CRISIS IN PLACES LIKE JAPAN THAT WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE GLOBAL MARKET AND HOW MUCH IS THAT WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW? WITH THE FISCAL DOOM LOOP DEVELOPING A POCKETS AROUND THE WORLD? JONATHAN: HOW MANY TIMES HAVE YOU HEARD THE OLD NORMAL? I'VE HEARD THAT ARGUMENT, GOING BACK TO PRE-GFC THAT THE POST-E GFC ERA WAS THE OPERATION. WELLS FARGO DID SOME GREAT WORK ON THAT OF THE LAST MONTH.

LISA: YOU KNOW HOW I FEEL ABOUT THIS. COME ON, JON. YOU ARE SETTING ME UP. YES, ALL THOSE THINGS, YES. SHOULD BOND INVESTORS GET YIELDS? YES, THIS IS A GREAT THING. AT THE SAME TIMES ARE FISCAL BACKDROP SUSTAINABLE WITH YIELDS AT THIS LEVEL? ABSOLUTELY NOT. THAT IS WHAT PEOPLE KEEP POINTING TO. THE FACT THAT THIS IS ONE OF THE FASTEST-GROWING PARTS OF THE U.S. BUDGET AT A TIME WHEN THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CONSENSUS WHATSOEVER OR FUNCTIONALITY POTENTIALLY IN WASHINGTON, D.C..

IT RAISES A QUESTION WHEN YOU SEE CONGRESS FOUNDERING NOT TO GO INTO SOME KIND OF SHUTDOWN. JONATHAN: THE TREASURY SECRETARY CLEARLY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE SITUATION. I THINK THAT TELLS YOU A LOT ABOUT HOW SUSTAINABLE THIS MIGHT BE. WE'LL CATCH UP WITH SEBASTIEN PAGE OF T. ROWE PRICE WITH BONDS UNDER PRESSURE. CLAYTON SEIGLE OF CSIS AS FRESH U.S.-IRAN STRIKES PUSH CRUDE HIGHER. AND ASHOK BHATIA. SEBASTIEN PAGE OF T. ROWE PRICE RIGHT THEN, WE ARE IN A POSITION FOR RISING LUNG RATES.

LEARN AND WHAT LONG BONDS. YET WE DON'T THINK THIS IS A PANIC RATE FOR STOCKS. IT'S BEEN TOO LONG. BONDS ARE UNDER PRESSURE. WHY DO YOU THINK EQUITIES WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD UP? SEBASTIEN: I THINK WE'RE GOOD ON EQUITIES BECAUSE OF EARNINGS GROWTH, PRETTY GOOD SENTIMENT AND POSITIONING, CLOSER TO NEUTRAL THAN EXTREME. VALUATIONS, THE S&P 500 IS ON THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE. THE RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH, IT WAS TRADING AT 30 PRICE EARNINGS RATIO ABOUT A YEAR AGO AND NOW IT IS AT 20 ONE.

VALUATIONS ARE ELEVATED BY LONG-RUN STANDARDS, BUT NOT EXTREME. AND YOU HAVE THE AI REVOLUTION, INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, AND $3 TRILLION OF SPENDING. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT'S SLOWING DOWN. JON, YOU TICK A LOT OF BOXES PICK SENTIMENT NOT EXTREME. VALUATIONS, EARNINGS, AI SPENDING, WE KEEP GOING PICK JONATHAN: LET'S PICK UP ON THE AI SPENDING. INCREASING LESS BECOMING MORE DEPENDENT ON DEBT FINANCING. I WONDER FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE -- AND THIS HAS BEEN AN ARGUMENT WE'VE BEEN HAVING ON THIS PROGRAM FOR A NUMBER OF MONTHS -- WHETHER THAT BUILDOUT BECOMES INCREASINGLY RATE SENSITIVE AND SOMEWHAT COMPROMISED BY THE MOVE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE IN FIXED INCOME?

SEBASTIEN: LOOK, I THINK IT WILL. BUT IT'S NOT BEEN THAT RATE SENSITIVE. IF YOU HAVE BIG COMPANIES LIKE MICROSOFT, ALPHABET, THEIR LEVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE IG ISSUER. I DON'T THINK WE ARE AT A TIME WHERE THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF CAPITAL FOR THAT BUILDOUT. OF COURSE, BUILDING LEVERAGE BUILT ACCOUNTABILITY, AND HE WANT TO SEE THE REVENUES AT THE END OF ALL THIS CAPEX. CAN YOU KNOW WHAT, JONATHAN, LIKE WE WERE ALL ASKING A YEAR AGO UP UNTIL NOW, WHERE IS THE MONETIZATION?

ARE WE REALLY GOING TO MONETIZE? ONE OF MY COLLEAGUES COMPARE THIS TO A YEAR AGO THE CRACK COCAINE PHASE. EVERYBODY'S GETTING IT FOR FREE AND WE WILL CHARGE YOU LATER. YOU LOOK AT OPENAI'S REVENUE OVER A YEAR FROM $20 MILLION TO 50 BILLION DOLLARS. ANTHROPIC FROM $5 BILLION TO 70 BILLION DOLLARS. PEOPLE ARE PAYING FOR THIS AND WE FEEL IT AT OUR COMPANY. WE USE IT. IT IS ADDING TO OUR PRODUCTIVITY. IT IS A REAL CHANGE IN HOW WE WORK.

I THINK THERE IS A REAL DEMAND BEHIND THIS. IF THERE IS MONETIZATION -- REDUCE THE SENSITIVITY TO THE DEBT. LOOK. THIS IS A MASSIVE BUILDOUT. IT IS FASTER, BIGGER THAN WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE THERE IS ABSOLUTELY A RISK OF OVERINVESTMENT AND SPECULATION. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE FUNDAMENTALS IT IS NOT TOO BAD, JONATHAN. LISA: TO USE YOUR PARLANCE, WHEN DO RATES CURTAIL THE CRACK COCAINE PHASE? IS THIS SOMETHING THAT ONLY REGULATION CAN POTENTIALLY HAVE THE ABILITY TO CURTAIL?

SEBASTIEN: I DON'T THINK RATES ARE NECESSARILY RESTRICTIVE RIGHT NOW. IF YOU LOOK AT THE 50-YEAR AVERAGE FOR THE 30-YEAR IT IS ACTUALLY 6.1% AND WE ARE AT 5.3%. YOU WERE TALKING IN THE INTRO ABOUT GOING BACK TO PRE-GFC KIND OF CONDITIONS. OF COURSE THE DIFFERENCE IS YOU HAVE A LOT OF GOVERNMENT DEBT AND TRILLION THAT YOU HAVE TO PAY ON THE DEBT EVERY YEAR. THAT INTRODUCES INSTABILITY ON THE FISCAL SPENDING SIDE, BUT WE ARE RUNNING HOT ON THE FISCAL SPENDING STILL.

IF YOU LOOK AT AGGREGATE DEBT, HOUSEHOLDS, CORPORATIONS, JUST AGGREGATE DEBT LEVELS, WE ARE NOT IN A DEBT CRISIS WHATSOEVER. THEIR MAIN QUESTION, LISA, IS, WHY IS THE 30-YEAR RISING? YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS IN THE INTRO. IS IT RISING BECA

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